| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 23.04.19 07:03z 223 Lines 11632 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22494_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190423/0701Z 22494@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 94 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 222335Z - 230700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM CDT Mon Apr
22 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southwestern
Oklahoma West and northwest Texas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 635 PM until
200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to form/grow
through the remainder of the evening and move northeastward across
the watch area, between the northern Permian Basin and southwestern
OK, offering sporadic large hail and isolated damaging gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles either side of a line from 185 miles southwest of
Childress TX to 65 miles east of Childress TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Edwards
WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/23/19
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 94
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-055-057-065-075-141-230540-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE GREER HARMON JACKSON
KIOWA TILLMAN
TXC003-033-075-101-107-115-125-155-165-169-197-263-269-275-303-
305-317-345-415-433-445-487-230540-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN CHILDRESS COTTLE
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS FOARD
GAINES GARZA HARDEMAN KENT KING
KNOX LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN
MOTLEY SCURRY STONEWALL TERRY WILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
MD 0423 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94... FOR TX PERMIAN
BASIN...NORTHWEST TX...FAR SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Areas affected...TX Permian Basin...Northwest TX...Far Southwest OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94...
Valid 230628Z - 230730Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94 continues.
SUMMARY...Some isolated hail will remain possible for at least the
next several hours but the isolated/marginal nature of the threat
will preclude the need for another watch.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue across the region,
supported primarily by isentropic ascent throughout a cold front
extending from southwest OK into southwest TX. This continued
warm-air advection, aided by broad large-scale ascent, will likely
lead to the persistence of thunderstorms for the next several hours.
Even so, instability continues to wane amidst nocturnal cooling
and warming aloft resulting from multiple rounds of storms in the
same areas. Expectation is for isolated instances of hail resulting
from brief updraft intensification due to storm interactions amidst
moderate vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 40-50 kt).
Isolated and brief nature to this threat will preclude the need
for an additional watch.
An extension in time may be warranted across the Permian Basin
where the storm moving through Andrews County TX continues to show
a strong updraft capable of severe hail. The organized character
of this storm may allow it to persist longer, with the resulting
severe threat extending past the watch expiration time of 07Z.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33010286 34949949 33929881 32000219 33010286
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246
AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated
large hail and severe gusts are expected across parts of southeast
New Mexico and Texas this afternoon and evening.
...Southern High Plains and Vicinity... A closed mid-level low
will slowly move from the AZ/Mexico border to northern Mexico
south of El Paso during the period. A composite front/outflow will
extend from the western Ozark Plateau southwest into southwest TX
during the morning with slow/gradual southward movement aided by
convective outflow. Marginally moist southeast low-level flow
(surface dewpoints ranging from the 50s west to 60s east) will
contribute to moderate buoyancy. After early morning cloud debris
lessens, storm development is expected by late afternoon coincident
with diurnal heating. Adequate effective shear for storm-scale
organization will support supercells and organized clusters with
the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be
the primary severe hazards due in part to steep mid-level lapse
rates. The highest concentration of stronger storms is expected
over portions of southwest TX northeast into central TX in the
vicinity of the instability axis along and ahead of the front.
A gradual weakening in storm intensity is expected by mid- to late
evening as cold pool conglomeration and diminishing surface-based
instability spatially reduce the area for severe storms.
...Northern KY into southwest PA... A northern stream shortwave
trough will move across the Great Lakes today. A belt of stronger
mid- to high-level flow will overspread mid/upper 50s F dewpoints
and contribute to weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) by afternoon
ahead of an eastward progressing cold front. A few strong storms
will be possible along the front and a few strong/locally damaging
wind gusts and small hail could accompany these stronger cells into
early evening.
..Smith/Karstens.. 04/23/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242
AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind
damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop across parts
of south-central Texas on Wednesday.
...Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move into the
southern Plains on Wednesday as a mid-level jet rounds the base of
the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across southwest and central Texas. Ahead of the front, a moist
airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by
midday. The NAM and ECMWF continue to show potential for thunderstorm
development along the front during the day. It appears that a
cluster of thunderstorms will initiate along the front in central
and southwest Texas, moving east-northeastward to the Texas Coastal
Plains by early evening. NAM forecast soundings across south-central
Texas at 21Z on Wednesday show MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 2500
J/kg range with steep mid-level lapse rates and 50 to 60 kt of
deep-layer shear. This environment should be favorable for supercell
development. Large hail and wind damage may occur with the stronger
rotating storms. A tornado threat will also be possible. It is also
possible, that an organized line segment associated with wind damage
will move across south-central Texas during the afternoon.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Broyles.. 04/23/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level low located over the Desert Southwest
will shift east-southeast throughout the day into portions of
northern Mexico. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough will
traverse the Great Lakes region into portions of the Northeast,
with zonal flow paralleling the U.S./Canadian border farther west.
At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Great Basin and
central/northern Plains, with a stationary front extending from
the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. With high pressure into
the Great Basin, some light offshore flow is possible this morning
across portions of Southern California, with warm/dry conditions
developing during the afternoon. However, winds should remain light
during both episodes. Farther north, across the Northern Rockies
into the Dakotas, breezy west-northwesterly winds should develop
during the afternoon due to vertical mixing of enhanced mid-level
flow, however, RH values should remain above critical values to go
along with marginally receptive fuels in this region. Elsewhere
the fire-weather potential remains low, thus no highlights have
been introduced at this time.
..Karstens.. 04/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-level low over northern Mexico will slowly
shift eastward into portions of West Texas, while farther north,
zonal flow will remain in place across the northern tier of the
CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control across
much of the West and the central/northern Plains. Once again, breezy
west-northwesterly winds will develop during the afternoon across
portions of Montana into the Dakota beneath enhanced mid-level flow.
RH values should again remain above critical thresholds amidst
marginally receptive fuels, thus no fire-weather highlights have
been introduced at this time.
..Karstens.. 04/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
FORTUNE PROVIDES QUESTIONS FOR THE GREAT ANSWERS: #4 A: Go west,
young man, go west! Q: What do wabbits do when they get tiwed of
wunning awound?
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Soporte tecnico las 24hs - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
- Servidores / empresas / Desktop
* Mantenimiento * Optimizacion * Soluciones
* Seguridad - Proteccion
--------------------------- Abono mensual - Consulte
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
