| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.22 15:00z 296 Lines 10298 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2905_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220805/1231Z 2905@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 5 08:45:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 5 08:45:01 UTC 2022.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Aug 5 08:45:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 5 08:45:01 UTC
2022.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Aug 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will
be possible across parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota. A few strong
wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic.
...Dakotas/Minnesota...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the
northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the northern Plains. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon. A capping inversion will be present across
much of the northern Plains during the day. Isolated elevated storms
may develop in northwestern Minnesota during the afternoon, along
the western edge of a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet. The cap is
forecast to weaken from southeast North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota by early evening, which should allow for surface-based
thunderstorm development. RAP forecast soundings from Fargo
northeastward into northwest Minnesota have MLCAPE peaking above
4000 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots
with low to mid-level lapse rates around 8.0 C/km. This should be
favorable for supercells and isolated large hail. The strongest of
storms should have potential for damaging wind gusts as well.
Further southwest into parts of South Dakota, the capping inversion
is expected to hold through early to mid evening. In spite of this,
elevated thunderstorms should form during the evening along the
front as convergence increases. Although moderate instability is
forecast ahead of the front, the elevated nature of the storms will
marginalize the severe potential. Effective shear is forecast to be
around 35 knots along the instability axis, suggesting that hail and
strong winds will still be possible.
...Mid Atlantic...
A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern
Appalachians today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place
along much of the Atlantic Seaboard. The strongest instability is
forecast to develop this afternoon from eastern Virginia into
Maryland and Delaware, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the
lower to mid 70s F. In addition, low-level lapse rates will become
steep along and near the instability axis by mid afternoon. RAP
forecast soundings around Washington D.C. at 21Z have MLCAPE near
2500 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates between 8.0 and 8.5 C/km. This
suggests a potential for strong winds will accompany cells that
develop within the stronger instability. Weak deep-layer shear is
expected to keep any severe threat unorganized and marginal.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/05/2022
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Aug 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may affects parts of the northern
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Parts of eastern SD/NE into western WI...
A low-amplitude midlevel speed max is forecast to move from MN to
Lake Superior early on Saturday, with lift from warm/moist advection
focused mainly north of a front that will extend from northeast NE
into northwest WI. Elevated storms are expected from central into
northeast MN north of this front, and effective shear up to 50 kt
along with sufficient MUCAPE may yield marginal hail with this early
activity.
The front will progress to a western KS/northern WI line by 00Z
Sunday, with upper 60s and lower 70s F dewpoints from eastern NE
into WI. A plume of steep low-level lapse rates will extend from KS
into eastern NE, IA, and far southern MN ahead of the front,
resulting in around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. However, midlevel lapse rates
are forecast to be poor, which may reduce severe potential.
Storms are forecast to redevelop along the front from NE into SD/IA
after 21Z, then become more widespread through early evening into
southern MN and western WI. By this time, effective shear will only
average 30-35 kt, but veering winds with height may favor a
short-lived supercell or two producing large hail or damaging gusts,
especially closer to the low-level lapse rate plume.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2022
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Aug 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather appears unlikely on Sunday across the CONUS.
...Synopsis...
The NAM/SREF members show an upper low moving across the northern
Plains on Sunday, and this scenario is a strong outlier when
compared to the GEFS and ECMWF. As such, that solution is generally
being disregarded.
The most likely setup is for a low-amplitude positive-tilt shortwave
trough to move from the northern Plains to the upper Great Lakes
during the day, then into the Northeast by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, an
east-west mean ridge will extend from Four Corners to the Mid
Atlantic.
At the surface, a cold front will extend roughly from northern Lower
MI and WI into KS during the day, and will reach northern MO into
northwest OK by 12Z Monday. Widespread 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
will remain south and east of this front, favoring daytime
thunderstorms across the WI and MI area where lift along the front
will be strongest. Although unstable ahead of the cold front, the
stronger flow aloft will remain too far north to support any
organized severe threat.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2022
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Aug 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members remain in reasonable agreement
with the large-scale pattern through Friday/D8, showing a prominent
upper high over the West gradually shifting east toward the Plains.
Slightly lower heights will exist across the Great Lakes and
Northeast on Monday/D4, with only a low-amplitude wave affecting the
region. A weak surface low will also move from Lower MI into the
Northeast on Monday/D4, with ample low-level moisture to support
daytime storms along a trailing cold front into the lower MO Valley.
However, MUCAPE is forecast to be at or below 500 J/kg due to warm
temperatures aloft, and, deep-layer shear as well as mean wind
speeds will remain marginal for any severe threat.
The aforementioned cold front will gradually push south each day,
with rain and thunderstorms developing across the southeastern
quarter of the CONUS. Given little flow and warm temperatures aloft,
concentrated areas of severe weather appear unlikely.
Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms will remain possible over much of the
Southwest, south of the upper high and beneath weak easterlies
aloft.
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this
morning over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move eastward
across southern Canada today. An associated surface low over
Manitoba will deepen with a trailing surface trough/cold front
draped southward into the northern Plains. While the enhanced
surface pressure gradient across the region will lead to windy
pre-frontal and post-frontal conditions across portions of the
northern Plains, the overlap of strong winds with critical RH values
appears unlikely, limiting fire weather concerns.
..Jirak.. 08/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Another upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward
across the northern Rockies/Plains on Saturday, acting to deamplify
the ridge over the central CONUS. At the surface, a cold front and
associated low pressure will shift slowly southeastward into the
central Plains through the day. As a result, an increased surface
pressure gradient across western Kansas/Oklahoma and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles will result in sustained afternoon
southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph. Despite strong heating and
deep boundary-layer mixing, RH values are expected to stay above
20%, precluding the need to add fire weather highlights at this
time.
..Jirak.. 08/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
hecho en PHP: Hypertext Preprocessor - Desarrollado por Eduardo Castillo
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
