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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.08.22 15:00z 347 Lines 13183 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3246_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220810/1231Z 3246@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 10 07:46:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 10 07:46:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Aug 10 07:46:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 10 07:46:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 10, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe winds, will be
possible today in parts of the Mid Atlantic. Other storms with
potential for strong winds and hail will be possible in parts of the
Pacific Northwest.
...Mid Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario and the
Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front
will be located from the central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic.
South of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will result in a
pocket of moderate instability by afternoon from North Carolina
northward into eastern Virginia. Thunderstorms will form in the
higher terrain of the central Appalachians, moving and developing
eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Although deep-layer shear will be
relatively weak, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the
early to mid afternoon. This could be enough for a marginal
wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells around
peak heating.
...Pacific Northwest...
An upper-level low will move parallel to the Oregon coast today. To
the east of the system, southerly and divergent mid-level flow will
help maintain a narrow corridor of instability extending
north-northwestward across the Pacific Northwest. Thunderstorms are
expected to form this afternoon along and near this axis of
instability, from northeast Oregon into central and eastern
Washington. RAP forecast soundings in east-central Washington during
the late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg and show 0-3
km lapse rates near 9.0 C/km. This could be enough for marginally
severe winds late this afternoon associated with high-based
thunderstorms that form near the strongest instability.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/10/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 10, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS on Thursday, while the upper ridge over parts of the Rockies
and High Plains and the upper low offshore of the Northwest are
expected to move little through the forecast period. A cold front is
forecast to move slowly southward through parts of the Mid Atlantic
and OH/TN Valleys into parts of the Carolinas and Southeast. A
nearly stationary front across parts of the Upper Midwest and
northern Plains may begin moving northward as a warm front Thursday
night, as a surface low moves slowly eastward across parts of the
Dakotas.
...Carolinas into southeast VA...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across parts of the
Southeast into the Carolinas and southeast VA, as the
mid/upper-level trough amplifies and the cold front pushes into the
region. While deep-layer shear may be slightly stronger compared to
D1/Wednesday, it will still be weak, and somewhat cooler and less
unstable conditions will potentially limit the threat for strong
outflow winds and/or wet microbursts. Due to these factors, no wind
probabilities have been included, though isolated instances of
damaging gusts cannot be ruled out across the region.
...SD into southwest MN and western/central IA...
A narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible Thursday
afternoon along and north of the nearly stationary front. Low-level
easterly flow veering to modest northwesterlies aloft will result in
a conditionally favorable wind profile for organized convection near
the frontal zone. However, the strongest large-scale ascent is
expected on the cool side of the boundary, and the potential for any
surface-based convection within this regime is too uncertain to
include severe probabilities at this time.
...Interior Northwest...
Along the eastern periphery of upper cyclone, a relatively favorable
overlap of weak-to-moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear
is again expected from northeast OR into eastern WA and
western/northern ID. However, with the upper cyclone expected to
remain well offshore, large-scale ascent is expected to be limited
across this area, with a reduction in storm coverage compared to
previous days. If robust convection can be sustained in this area,
then a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
..Dean.. 08/10/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 10, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Friday.
...Synopsis...
Only minor changes to the large-scale pattern are expected on
Friday, with a seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough persisting
over the eastern CONUS, while an upper cyclone moves slowly
northward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. A cold front will
continue moving across parts of the Southeast. Another boundary will
take on a more north-south orientation from the Ozark Plateau into
the northern Plains and upper Midwest, with the northern portion
moving northward as a warm front, while the southern portion acts as
more of a backdoor cold front as it pushes westward.
At this time, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears
relatively low on Friday. A few strong storms will be possible
across the Southeast Friday afternoon, though the cold front may
tend to outpace the stronger deep-layer flow/shear spreading in from
the northwest. Scattered thunderstorms will also again be possible
across parts of the interior West, though the stronger deep-layer
flow/shear is expected to be displaced from the greater
moisture/instability and storm coverage.
..Dean.. 08/10/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 10, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be relatively
low through the extended-range period. A seasonably deep
mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern
CONUS into next week, and possibly retrograde slightly into portions
of the central CONUS. Periodic frontal passages associated with this
trough are expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to
near the Gulf Coast, limiting the potential for substantial
destabilization east of the Rockies. Any notable severe potential
would most likely evolve from the northwesterly flow regime that
will be in place from the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and
Southeast, but confidence in the likelihood, location, and timing of
any such scenario remains quite low at this time.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
On the western periphery of strong mid-level high pressure
dominating the central CONUS, a compact upper low is expected to
continue northward along the West Coast. A second trough is forecast
move eastward along the northern rim of the ridge across portions of
the northern Rockies and High Plains. Enhanced by southerly gradient
winds between the upper low and ridge, mid-level moisture will
continue to spill into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Stronger flow aloft and lift from the two troughs will support
scattered thunderstorms and the potential for elevated fire weather
concerns.
...Northern CA/southern OR and western MT...
As heights lower ahead of the upper low and shortwave trough,
enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to develop along the
northwestern periphery of the ridge across CA/OR and portions of MT.
This enhanced flow will overspread a dry and warm airmass in the lee
of the northern Sierra and across the northern Rockies/High Plains.
Afternoon RH values below 25% and surface winds peaking near 20 mph
should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions within receptive fuels. A few high-based
thunderstorms may also support strong and erratic gusts this
afternoon/evening.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
As the upper low continues to move slowly north along the West
Coast, dynamic lift will overspread abundant mid-level moisture in
place across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Area soundings show
PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches supporting elevated CAPE of 500-1000
J/kg. Beneath the unstable layers, modest low-level moisture and
warm surface temperatures should result in drier sub-cloud layers
with inverted-v structures. Higher evaporation potential should
favor a drier storm mode with the threat of occasional cloud to
ground strikes to receptive fuels. IsoDryT probabilities will be
maintained across portions of the interior Northwest and northern
Rockies.
Farther west across the Olympic Peninsula and western Washington,
dry thunder potential is less certain given much cooler surface
conditions near an inland marine layer. While elevated buoyancy is
expected to support a risk for storms beneath the cold core of the
upper low, storm mode is forecast to be significantly wetter. While
isolated cloud to ground strikes will be possible within receptive
fuels, dry thunderstorms appear unlikely, and IsoDryT probabilities
will be held farther east. For additional information of the
severe-weather risk, please see the most recent Convective Outlook.
..Lyons.. 08/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Across the CONUS, high pressure will remain dominant as it shifts
eastward and strengthens over the central Rockies. To the west, the
upper low off the northwestern coast will stall and begin to weaken
as it remains offshore. Flow aloft east of the low will also slacken
as the ridge builds, limiting strong surface flow over much of the
West. Mid-level moisture in place will support another day of
scattered, mostly wet, thunderstorms across the western US. With
flow aloft weakening and wetting rain expected, confidence in
sustained fire weather concerns is low.
...Central High Plains...
As the upper ridge shifts eastward and strengthens, mid-level flow
should weaken across much of the central Rockies and High Plains.
Despite limited upper-air support, a lee trough is forecast to
develop, bolstering local winds to around 15 mph. Warm temperature
and afternoon RH below 25% beneath the ridge will support a few
hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions within dry fuels.
Should forecast winds increase, more sustained elevated conditions
will be possible. However, confidence is low.
...Central/Northern Rockies...
With lingering mid-level moisture in place beneath the upper ridge,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible above
the higher terrain Thursday. With some model guidance hinting at LCL
heights above 2 to 3 km, an occasional dry strike is possible within
receptive fuels. However, flow aloft is weak and PWATs (~1 inch)
remain relatively high suggesting slow-moving storms and better
wetting rain potential in addition to prior accumulation over the
last several days. While some dry lightning is possible, confidence
is too low to introduce any probabilities.
..Lyons.. 08/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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