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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.08.22 17:09z 332 Lines 12069 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3301_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220811/1230Z 3301@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 11 07:46:03 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 11 07:46:03 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Aug 11 07:46:03 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 11 07:46:03 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms -- with one or two capable of producing
strong/damaging wind gusts -- may occur over portions of the Pacific
Northwest.
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the central U.S. and into the
Rockies Thursday, while troughing digs southeastward across the
East, and persists just off the West Coast.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift southward across
the Mid-Atlantic region and Midwest, while remaining nearly
stationary along the western fringe, over the Mid-Missouri Valley
vicinity.
...Parts of eastern Washington/Oregon across Idaho into far western
Montana...
Ahead of an upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast, weak ascent
within the diffluent flow regime will help contribute to isolated
storm development. The convection will be fueled by diurnal
heating/destabilization, as afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values exceed
1000 to 1500 J/kg. Similar to Wednesday, moderate mid-level
southwesterlies will be sufficient to support at least some updraft
organization, with potential evaporative enhancement in the
sub-cloud layer possibly contributing to a few instances of
strong/damaging wind gusts during the late afternoon and early
evening hours.
..Goss/Lyons.. 08/11/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist over
the eastern CONUS on Friday, while an upper ridge remains anchored
over the central Rockies and Great Plains. An upper-level cyclone
off of the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to move slowly
northward and approach Vancouver Island by late Friday night. At the
surface, a cold front will push southward across the Carolinas and
Southeast. A secondary front will move through portions of the OH/TN
Valleys, though the northern portion of this boundary may push
northward as a warm front across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota.
...Interior Northwest...
Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating, and
sufficient low-level moisture may support pockets of moderate
destabilization by Friday afternoon from northeast OR/eastern WA
into parts of western/northern ID. Moderate midlevel flow along the
eastern periphery of the upper cyclone will support effective shear
of 30-40 kt, which will be conditionally favorable for organized
convection. The primary uncertainty regarding the severe threat is
storm coverage, with the strongest large-scale ascent expected to
remain generally west and north of the region. This uncertainty
precludes the addition of severe probabilities at this time, but an
isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon/evening. Greater storm coverage is expected farther east
over southwest into central MT, as storms develop and then move off
of the higher terrain, though deep-layer shear is expected to be
weaker in this area.
...GA/SC...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on Friday near the
front across portions of GA into SC, and perhaps coastal areas of
NC. Modest northwesterly midlevel flow may support sufficient
deep-layer shear for some weakly organized storms, though weak
midlevel lapse rates and low-level flow are generally expected to
limit organized severe-wind potential. Isolated strong gusts capable
of tree damage will be possible, especially where stronger diurnal
heating/destabilization occurs prior to storm arrival.
..Dean.. 08/11/2022
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SPC Aug 11, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
Little change to the upper-level pattern is expected on Saturday,
with a prominent trough across the eastern CONUS, a ridge over
portions of the central/southern Great Plains, and a trough over the
Pacific Northwest. A cold front is forecast to slow down and
eventually become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the Gulf
Coast. Farther north, a weak surface low is forecast to move along a
secondary front from the Upper Midwest into portions of the Great
Lakes.
The richer low-level moisture is expected to remain confined near
the Gulf Coast, though some residual moisture may support weak to
moderate destabilization along the secondary front from portions of
the Midwest northwestward into the northern Great Plains. While
midlevel northwesterly flow will support pockets of 30-40 kt
effective shear from the Dakotas into the Midwest, the potential for
surface-based storm development remains quite uncertain across these
areas. Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts
of MT, though deep-layer shear is expected to be somewhat weaker
compared to the northwesterly flow regime farther east. Localized
areas of severe potential may eventually evolve on Saturday, but
confidence in the magnitude and location of any such threat is too
low to include severe probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 08/11/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 11, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern
half of the CONUS next week, resulting in seasonably dry and stable
conditions for most areas east of the Mississippi River. Periodic
bouts of convection will be possible from the Great Plains into the
lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity, within a weak northwesterly
flow regime. However, with generally modest instability and
deep-layer shear, and the forecast lack of stronger embedded
shortwaves within the large-scale trough, the organized
severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to remain relatively low,
with limited predictability for any localized severe potential that
might evolve through most of next week.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are forecast to be relatively low today as the
mid-level ridge shifts east and strengthens over the Rockies. To the
west, an upper low is forecast to weaken as it moves slowly along
the WA/OR Coast. Lingering mid-level flow and moisture will support
locally elevated fire weather concerns, along with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms.
...Northwest...
Mid-level flow east of the upper low, will support occasional gusty
surface winds in the lee of the Sierra and Cascades this afternoon.
Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, a few
hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns are expected within
dry fuels. The highest confidence in sustained elevated conditions
is expected across southern OR where RH values may fall as low as
15-20%.
Farther north, mid-level moisture remains in place near the upper
low increasing surface RH values and casting greater uncertainty on
the localized fire weather risk. However, a few hours of gusty winds
near 15 mph and lower RH may support some risk for locally elevated
fire weather in the lee of the Cascades where downslope winds are
expected. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for
lightning in dry fuels across portions of eastern WA and ID as
moisture is slowly shifted to the east. Please see the latest
convective outlook for information on the severe-weather risk.
...Northern High Plains...
Weak low-level winds are expected beneath anemic flow aloft as the
mid-level ridge strengthens across much of the central US. While not
expected to exceed more than 15 or 20 mph, a few gusts enhanced by a
lee cyclone across the western Dakotas will develop within a dry and
warm airmass with temperatures near 100F. With afternoon RH values
of 20-25% and only marginally conducive winds forecast, the fire
weather threat is expected to remain localized.
..Lyons.. 08/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Along the West Coast, an upper low will meander slowly northeastward
as moderate flow aloft lingers over the Northwest and northern
Rockies. To the east, the strong ridge will remain in place with
warm and dry conditions expected beneath it. Warm, dry and breezy
conditions will support elevated fire weather concerns across the
southern Cascades while thunderstorms will remain possible across
the Rockies.
...Northwest and northern Rockies...
With the upper low remaining close offshore, moderate mid-level flow
will persist over the Cascades and into the northern Rockies.
Bolstered by the enhanced flow aloft, dry downslope winds will
coincide with warm conditions in the lee of the Cascades from
southern WA to OR, and into portions of the northern Rockies. While
widespread winds greater than 15 mph are not expected, localized
pockets of 15-20 mph gusts are possible in the lee of the higher
terrain. Here, already warm and dry surface conditions with RH
values below 20% may support a few hours of elevated fire weather
potential given very dry fuels.
Further east across ID and MT, thunderstorm chances will again
develop as weak ascent from the upper low interacts with mid-level
moisture across the region. While lightning occurrence over somewhat
receptive fuels is probable, wetting rains are expected given the
monsoon airmass and several days of accumulation.
...Central Plains...
Warm and breezy conditions are forecast ahead of a weak and
slow-moving cyclone transiting the Plains Friday. Lacking strong
upper air support near the prominent ridge, low-level flow is not
expected to be sustained above 15 mph. Despite the weak winds, very
warm temperatures (90-100F) will favor moderate to low afternoon RH
values and some potential for localized fire weather conditions
given abundant dry fuels.
..Lyons.. 08/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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