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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.08.22 12:34z 300 Lines 10721 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3655_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220816/1230Z 3655@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 16 08:49:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 16 08:49:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Aug 16 08:49:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 16 08:49:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND
THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Tuesday across
parts of the Ozarks into the lower Mississippi Valley and central
Gulf Coast. A few strong/severe thunderstorms may also occur across
the upper Red River Valley and over the southern High Plains.
Damaging winds should be the main threat, but some hail may also
occur.
...Ozarks to Central Gulf Coast...
Negligible-very weak height falls will spread across eastern KS/MO
into the mid South Tuesday in response to a short-wave trough that
will dig southeast into this region. Early this morning this feature
was located over eastern NE/IA and scattered deep convection has
developed along the cool side of a front across southern NE into
northern MO. This activity will spread/develop southeast within a
warm advection regime and be ongoing at the start of the period.
Subsequent southeast movement should result in this convection
spreading across the mid South during the early afternoon. This
convection is not expected to be particularly severe but strong
surface heating across OK into western AR/lower MS Valley should aid
buoyancy for possible redevelopment along the front/outflow
boundaries. Locally damaging winds will likely be the primary risk
with the more robust convection.
...Southern High Plains...
Strong surface heating across the TX Panhandle into northeast NM
will result in steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy by
early afternoon. Latest analysis suggests a pronounced surface front
has surged across northwest KS/eastern CO. This boundary will
advance into northeast NM later today and provide the focus for
renewed convection. While deep-layer flow will remain weak,
thermodynamic environment should support gusty winds with the more
robust updrafts.
...Upper Red River Valley...
Weak short-wave trough will dig southeast into northern MN by late
afternoon. This feature is expected to encourage a weak surface low
to settle into the northeast corner of ND by peak heating. Trailing
surface boundary across eastern ND will likely serve as the focus
for possible isolated robust thunderstorms by late afternoon as
convective temperatures are breached. Gusty winds will be the main
threat if storms develop along the eastern plume of steeper lapse
rates, as low-level convergence will be maximized along the wind
shift.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/16/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
wind damage appear possible Wednesday across parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast...
An upper trough/low will remain over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
on Wednesday, with the trailing portion of the trough located over
the Southeast. At the surface, a front should move slowly southward
across much of the Deep South and southern Plains through the
period. This boundary will likely provide a focus for thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong
to severe.
Mid-level west-northwesterly winds are forecast to remain fairly
modest across the Southeast, as this region will be on the southern
periphery of the upper trough/low encompassing much of the eastern
CONUS. Still, around 20-30 kt deep-layer shear near the front should
encourage some updraft organization. Thunderstorms are forecast to
form along/near the front as it shifts slowly southward through the
day. Other convection should also develop along sea breezes in north
FL. As robust diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level
airmass occurs, MLCAPE generally ranging from 1500-3000 J/kg should
develop south of the front. Multiple small clusters should
consolidate and spread southward through early Wednesday evening.
Owing to steepened low-level lapse rates and plentiful DCAPE, this
activity may pose an isolated threat for damaging downdraft winds.
Adjustments have been made to the northern extent of the Marginal
Risk in AL/GA due to the stabilizing influence of morning
precipitation that is forecast by most guidance.
..Gleason.. 08/16/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper ridge will persist over the western CONUS, while
upper troughing remains across much of the central and eastern
states on Thursday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough should
move southward from central Canada over parts of the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. While some low-level moisture
should be in place across these regions, greater instability
forecast over the Upper Midwest should remain generally displaced
from the stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear across
the northern Plains. Accordingly, any severe potential with
thunderstorms that can develop in this regime currently appears
rather limited.
Thunderstorms should also develop Thursday along and south of a
front that should be draped across the southern Plains into the
lower MS Valley and Southeast. Multiple rounds of convection should
have already occurred across parts of these areas on previous days,
and the effective surface boundary may be located farther south than
most guidance currently indicates. Moderate instability may develop
through Thursday afternoon to the south of any ongoing convection in
the morning. But, this instability should remain mostly south of
fairly modest mid-level westerly flow that will be present on the
southern periphery of the upper trough. Given the uncertainties with
prior convection and a lack of appreciable deep-layer shear forecast
across the warm sector, have opted to not include low severe
probabilities at this time.
..Gleason.. 08/16/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should consolidate into a
closed low moving slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region from Day 4/Friday through the upcoming weekend. While
some low-level moisture will be present ahead of this feature,
generally modest deep-layer shear and weak instability should tend
to keep the threat for organized severe thunderstorms fairly
low/isolated. Overall severe potential should also remain low across
the CONUS early next week, as most medium-range guidance shows a
gradual erosion of the prominent upper ridge over the western
states, and a general lack of enhanced mid-level winds across much
of the CONUS.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail across the western and central CONUS
today, with weak forcing/surface wind fields limiting significant
wildfire-spread concerns across most of the CONUS. The primary
exception would be portions of the Pacific Northwest, where richer
monsoonal moisture should begin to impinge on the Pacific Northwest.
By late afternoon/early evening, a thunderstorm or two could develop
across the southern Cascades. Despite the very low probability of
thunderstorm development, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were
maintained for the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook given the presence of
very dry fuels across the region.
..Squitieri.. 08/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will continue to amplify across the western CONUS as
mid-level troughing persists across the MS Valley to the Atlantic
Coastline tomorrow/Wednesday. While the large-scale surface wind
field beneath subtle forcing should remain sub-optimal for
supporting significant wildfire spread, a mid-level impulse may
traverse the northern Rockies late in the day. Modest surface low
development and the southward surging of a cold front will be
possible across portions of central and eastern Montana along with
locally Elevated conditions.
Of bigger concern will be the continued northwestward transport of
monsoonal moisture atop the southern Cascades, where the latest
guidance consensus shows greater confidence in thunderstorm coverage
by late afternoon/early evening. Isolated dry thunderstorm
highlights have been introduced when considering both storm coverage
and the presence of very dry fuels.
..Squitieri.. 08/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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