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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.08.22 18:13z 239 Lines 8585 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3785_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220818/1730Z 3785@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 18 09:52:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 18 09:52:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Aug 18 09:52:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 18 09:52:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 18, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Occasional hail and
damaging winds should be the main threats.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
An upper trough/low is forecast to move slowly eastward across the
Upper Midwest on Friday. A belt of 25-40 kt west-northwesterly
mid-level winds should accompany this feature, and overspread parts
of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest and mid MS Valley
regions through the day. A weak surface low will be present beneath
the upper low, and it should develop rather slowly
east-southeastward through the period. Modest low-level moisture in
place ahead of a cold front across the northern/central Plains and
Upper Midwest should aid thunderstorm development across parts of
these areas by Friday afternoon.
Even with the somewhat limited low-level moisture forecast, cool
mid-level temperatures and daytime heating should aid the
development of weak to moderate instability, with most guidance
suggesting MLCAPE ranging around 1000-2000 J/kg by late Friday
afternoon along/ahead of the front. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity along
the length of the front from parts of central/eastern IA into
northern/western MO and eastern/central KS. These areas should have
the best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and evening, as 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear encourages some updraft
organization. A mix of multicells and marginal supercells appears
possible, with a threat for both occasional severe hail and damaging
winds apparent.
...Southeast...
Multiple rounds of convection are forecast across the Southeast
prior to Friday along/south of a weak stalled front. It still
remains unclear whether sufficient instability will develop
south/east of this boundary Friday afternoon to support robust
convection. Forecast effective bulk shear should also be only
marginally supportive of organized thunderstorms across this region,
as a large-scale upper trough and modest mid-level winds persist
across much of the eastern CONUS. At this time, have opted to not
include a broad Marginal Risk for damaging winds across the
Southeast along/south of the front. But, low severe probabilities
may eventually be needed if a focused corridor of favorable
instability aligned with loosely organized convection becomes more
apparent.
..Gleason.. 08/18/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 18, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the Midwest/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozarks.
...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozarks...
A closed mid/upper-level cyclone over the Upper Midwest Saturday
morning should evolve into a positively tilted trough as it moves
slowly eastward across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and mid MS Valley
through the period. A weak surface low associated with the upper
trough should likewise move slowly eastward across IA and vicinity
through Saturday evening. A cold front attendant to the surface low
is forecast to progress east-southeastward across parts of the
Midwest, mid MS Valley, and central/southern Plains.
There is still some uncertainty with the placement and evolution of
the cold front through the day, and with the quality of low-level
moisture ahead of it. Depending on how much diurnal heating can
occur across the warm sector, at least weak instability should
develop in a fairly narrow corridor across parts of the Midwest/mid
MS Valley and Ozarks. Most guidance suggests a gradual uptick in
convective coverage should occur along/ahead of the front late
Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Even with mid-level winds
remaining fairly muted, there should be enough deep-layer shear for
marginal updraft organization. Low severe probabilities have been
included where confidence is greatest in loosely organized
thunderstorm clusters occurring, with the modest deep-layer shear
likely keeping the overall severe threat isolated.
..Gleason.. 08/18/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 18, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A positively tilted upper trough should continue to move eastward
from the Great Lakes/OH Valley regions to the East Coast from Day
4/Sunday into early next week. Modest mid-level winds attendant to
this trough and limited deep-layer shear should keep the overall
severe threat across these regions rather isolated/marginal.
Otherwise, a separate upper trough/low should move slowly inland
across parts of the Pacific Northwest and eventually the northern
Rockies from Day 4/Sunday through the early to middle portions of
next week. While some thunderstorm potential should exist across
these regions as the trough advances eastward, current indications
are that instability will remain too weak to support a threat for
organized severe thunderstorms.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will dominate the Plains states eastward
while weak upper ridging persists across the Interior West today. A
mid-level shortwave trough is expected to pivot around the upper
ridge and lift a monsoonal airmass, promoting high-based
thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest by
afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were added to
account for the potential of several strikes occurring away from
storm cores into dry fuel beds. Otherwise, locally Elevated
conditions may accompany the post-cold frontal environment across
the central Plains, supporting localized potential for fire growth
wherever dry/occasionally breezy conditions overlap with patchy dry
fuels.
..Squitieri.. 08/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic upper flow will encompass much of the CONUS
tomorrow/Friday, both with an upper trough across the Midwest and
over the Pacific Northwest. Across the Northwest into the northern
Rockies, mid-level monsoonal moisture will foster buoyancy ahead of
the western upper trough to support high-based thunderstorm
development. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced
since some of the thunderstorms may overspread patchy dry fuel beds,
particularly across western into central Idaho.
..Squitieri.. 08/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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