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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.08.22 13:03z 283 Lines 9606 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3973_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 21-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 220821/1231Z 3973@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 21 08:48:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 21 08:48:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Aug 21 08:48:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 21 08:48:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 21, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
across parts of the Mid and Upper Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across the
eastern half of the U.S. today, while ridging prevails across the
interior West. A short-wave trough over the eastern Pacific will
progress toward -- and eventually reach -- the Pacific Northwest
Coast, though its progression will be slowed by the prevailing
ridge.
At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to cross the
Ohio/Tennessee/Mid Mississippi Valleys through the day, while the
trailing portion of this boundary lingers across Texas through the
period.
...Mid and Upper Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
Diurnal heating of a moist low-level pre-frontal airmass will result
in afternoon destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE expected to
average 1000 to 2000 J/kg across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Modest
ascent -- focused near the surface front -- in tandem with the
destabilizing environment will result in an increase in
coverage/intensity of ongoing storms, as well as new storm
development. The initial convective increase is expected across the
Mid Ohio Valley region, but should eventually continue southwestward
across the Tennessee and into the Mid Mississippi Valleys through
the afternoon and into the early evening.
With moderate/cyclonic mid-level westerlies associated with the
upper trough spreading across the region, occasionally stronger
updrafts are expected, yielding mainly multicell organization.
Damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary severe risk, which
should peak in the late afternoon but will likely linger well into
the evening in some areas.
...Central and southern Arizona...
As the airmass across central Arizona heats/destabilizes through the
afternoon, storm development is expected -- particularly in the
vicinity of the Mogollon Rim. Models suggest some enhancement to
northerly/north-northeasterly flow in the 700 to 500 mb layer across
the area into the afternoon and evening, which may favor southward
propagation off the higher terrain into the lower deserts. Some CAM
runs confirm such a scenario, with the 00Z HRRR run in particular
showing a surge of convection moving southward through late
afternoon/early evening. Given potential for locally damaging gusts
in such a scenario, will initially introduce 5%/MRGL risk for wind.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 08/21/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 21, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to exist within the
relatively weak mid/upper flow across the CONUS early Monday
morning. The southernmost shortwave trough is expected to move
gradually southeastward from east TX into the Lower MS Valley,
accompanied by a weak surface low. Moist and buoyant air mass in
place ahead of this system will foster numerous thunderstorms, but
weak vertical shear and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the
severe thunderstorm potential.
Farther east, a slow-moving shortwave trough is expected to move
from the upper OH Valley into the Northeast. Thunderstorms are
anticipated during the afternoon and evening as this shortwave and
its attendant surface low/cold front move into the Mid-Atlantic and
NY. Limited buoyancy and vertical shear should temper the overall
severe thunderstorms risk.
Westernmost shortwave trough will likely move northeastward through
the Pacific Northwest before developing into a closed low late
Monday/early Tuesday over southern British Columbia. Thunderstorms
are anticipated ahead of this shortwave over the northern Rockies,
but modest buoyancy should keep the severe potential low.
..Mosier.. 08/21/2022
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SPC Aug 21, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern across the CONUS Tuesday morning is forecast to be
characterized by generally modest flow and several relatively weak
shortwave troughs. A slow-moving shortwave trough over the Lower MS
Valley will contribute to numerous thunderstorms from east TX to the
central Gulf Coast while another shortwave fosters scattered
thunderstorm development as it moves across the Northeast. Weak
vertical shear and modest buoyancy will limit the severe potential.
Farther west, scattered thunderstorms are again expected within the
monsoonal airmass over the Southwest and central Rockies.
Southwesterly flow aloft and modest large-scale forcing for ascent
attendant to a closed low drifting southeastward out of British
Columbia will promote thunderstorm development over the northern
Rockies/northern High Plains. Severe thunderstorm risk will be
tempered by modest vertical shear.
..Mosier.. 08/21/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 21, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday is forecast to
feature eastern CONUS troughing and subtropical ridging over the
central/southern Plains and Southwest. A shortwave trough is
expected to eject eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the
northern Rockies/northern High Plains on D6/Friday, and northern
Plains/Upper MS Valley on D7/Saturday. Progression of this system
will help dampen the persist subtropical ridging, with broad
troughing likely in place across the CONUS by early D8/Sunday.
Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this shortwave across the
northern High Plains on D6/Friday and the Upper MS Valley on
D7/Saturday. Current guidance suggest mid-level flow will be
limited, tempering the severe potential. Additionally, variability
within the guidance on the timing and strength of the shortwave
limits predictability at this forecast range. Even so, this signal
merits watching within the next few cycles of the guidance for some
severe potential.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will be in place across the western U.S. as broad
cyclonic flow aloft envelops the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS
today. By evening, a pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the
Pacific Northwest and lift a monsoonal airmass across Oregon,
fostering isolated high-based thunderstorm development. While some
of the storms will be slow moving, enough potential exists for
strikes to occur away from storm cores into dry fuel beds,
warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.
..Squitieri.. 08/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will weaken some across the Interior West as a
mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest and approaches the
northern Rockies tomorrow/Monday. Ahead of the mid-level trough,
lifting of mid-level monsoonal air across the northern Rockies will
support at least isolated high-based thunderstorm development by
late afternoon. Given the presence of patchy dry fuels, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Locally Elevated dry
and breezy conditions are also possible across the Harney Basin in
southeast Oregon into southwest Idaho around afternoon peak heating.
..Squitieri.. 08/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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