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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.08.22 15:34z 342 Lines 12938 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4233_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<W5KAV<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 220825/1230Z 4233@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 25 08:35:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 25 08:35:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Aug 25 08:35:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 25 08:35:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
western Montana and into the central and northern High Plains today.
Severe gusts and large hail are the main threats.
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic upper flow will prevail across the eastern U.S. as a
pair of mid-level impulses traverse the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains today. Mainly general thunderstorms are
expected to develop under the cyclonic upper flow regime across the
Mid MS and OH Valleys as well as the Southeast/Florida this
afternoon. A strong to potentially severe wind gust could develop
with storms ahead of the cold front along the MO/IL border, or with
pulse-cellular convection in FL, but the severe threat should remain
too sparse to warrant severe probabilities. On the other hand,
modest convective organization could occur with storms associated
with the aforementioned mid-level impulses across parts of western
MT and along the WY/SD border area despite weak shear. Scattered
strong storms appear likely, and low-end organized severe potential
could be realized.
...Western Montana Vicinity...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop by early to
mid-afternoon across far western MT given adequate diurnal heating
and the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulse. A modestly
moist low-level airmass overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the storms. Modest
mid-level westerly flow associated with the passing impulse will
overspread southeasterly low-level flow, contributing to somewhat
curved, elongated hodographs. The anticipated overlapping
kinematic/thermodynamic profiles should support multicellular storm
clusters and perhaps a couple of transient supercells, accompanied
by mainly an isolated severe hail/wind threat.
...Central into northern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the immediate lee of the
Rockies over eastern WY by afternoon. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
overspreading surface temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 F
will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Upslope easterly low-level
flow will veer to more westerly in the mid-levels, contributing to
modestly curved hodographs, supporting multicell/transient supercell
structures initially. Very isolated bouts of large hail will be the
primary threat with these storms, with severe gusts gradually
becoming a greater concern as storms and their cold pools merge.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 08/25/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast
States on Friday.
...Northeast...
A shortwave trough is expected to move from Ontario and the Upper
Great Lakes eastward/northeastward through the Quebec and the
Northeast states on Friday. An associated surface low will take a
similar track just ahead of its parent shortwave, beginning the
period over Lake Ontario before then moving northeastward across
southern Quebec and northern ME. A cold front attendant to this low
will push eastward across New England.
Mid 60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of this cold front, helping
to support moderate buoyancy amid filtered diurnal heating.
Additionally, enhanced mid-level flow (i.e., around 40 kt at 500 mb)
will spread across the region ahead of the shortwave. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in one or more bands along and
ahead of front. A predominantly multicellular storm mode is
anticipated across the region, but the combination of shear and
buoyancy will support some stronger storms/bowing line segments
capable of damaging wind gusts. A few supercells are also possible,
particularly from eastern NY into far western ME, where a corridor
of low-level southerly winds is anticipated. In addition to damaging
wind gusts, a low probability threat for hail and a tornado or two
is possible with any supercells that develop.
...Northern High Plains/Western Dakotas...
A slow-moving upper low is forecast to begin the period over western
MT, before becoming more progressive and evolving into an open wave
as it moves into the western Dakotas/southern Saskatchewan. A weak
surface low will accompany this shortwave, moving ahead of it across
southeast MT and into ND.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across western SD
early Friday morning, with associated cloud cover possibly tempering
diurnal heating and air mass destabilization throughout the day.
Additionally, recent guidance suggests the shortwave may not be as
amplified as indicated in previous runs. These factors cast
uncertainty on potential convective initiation during the afternoon,
which in turn reduces the probability of severe thunderstorms.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are still anticipated, particularly
over central MT, but coverage across the region is now expected to
remain less than 5%.
..Mosier.. 08/25/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 25, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Upper MS Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Saskatchewan
southward through the northern Plains early Saturday morning. This
shortwave is then expected to progress northeastward, moving through
southern Manitoba and MN and into far northwestern Ontario. A subtle
surface low will likely move northeastward just ahead of the
shortwave, progressing from west-central MN northeastward into far
northwest Ontario throughout the day.
Ample low-level moisture is expected within the airmass over the
region, with afternoon dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s likely.
Strong heating is also anticipated, with afternoon temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s. These warm and moist conditions will occur
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in a moderate to
strongly unstable airmass. The combination of modest large-scale
forcing for ascent and low-level convergence along a weak surface
trough amid the favorable thermodynamic conditions is expected to
result in afternoon thunderstorm initiation.
Warm temperatures at the base of the EML result in some uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, with the potential for some storms
to be elevated north of the surface trough as well. These
uncertainties merit low severe probabilities at this forecast range.
Even so, any surface-based storms that do mature would likely pose a
severe risk. All severe hazards are possible, including tornadoes,
but hail appears to be the primary risk.
...Elsewhere...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms within the monsoonal moisture
still in place over the Southwest. Isolated thunderstorms are also
expected from north CA/southeast OR into the northern Great Basin as
a compact upper low moves across the region. A few storms are also
possible across the central Plains as a convectively augmented
shortwave trough gradually shifts east. In each of these areas,
limited vertical shear and modest buoyancy should keep the severe
potential low.
..Mosier.. 08/25/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in good agreement that modest upper flow will be
in place across the CONUS from D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday.
However, in contrast, guidance continues to show variability
regarding the evolution of the compact shortwave trough expected to
be centered over the northern Great Basin early D4/Sunday. The more
progressive guidance takes this shortwave eastward trough the
northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest by early D5/Monday.
However, other guidance has trended towards a less progressive
solution which displaces the shortwave south of the westerlies,
causing it to drift more southeastward into the central Rockies on
D5/Monday. In either case, limited vertical shear should keep the
severe-weather threat low.
While much of the CONUS will be characterized by weak upper flow, a
strong shortwave trough is expected to move across Ontario on
D5/Monday and Quebec on D6/Tuesday. Enhanced mid-level flow
throughout the southern periphery of this wave will spread across
the Northeast on D6/Tuesday and early D7/Wednesday. Some stronger
storms may manifest across the Northeast on D6/Tuesday if this
scenario materializes.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic upper flow will prevail across the eastern U.S. while
multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the Northwest into the
central Plains today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop amid a modestly buoyant airmass across portions of the
northern Rockies. A few of the thunderstorms may be dry initially,
before becoming a more wet/dry mix. Fuels, however, are receptive to
wildfire spread on a spotty basis. As such, sparse dry strikes into
patchy receptive fuels or gusty, erratic winds emanating from storms
may support very localized wildfire-spread potential. Locally dry
and windy conditions are also possible across parts of the northern
Great Basin in association with the passage of a mid-level impulse.
..Squitieri.. 08/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen across the northwestern
U.S. as a more pronounced mid-level trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest tomorrow/Friday. While scattered thunderstorms may support
a dry strike or two in a locally more receptive fuel bed across the
northern Rockies, a slightly more appreciable fire-weather spread
threat may exist across the northern Great Basin closer to the
mid-level trough. The stronger flow aloft will overspread a dry
boundary layer to the lee of the Cascades southeastward into the
northern Great Basin, promoting at least locally Elevated dry/windy
surface conditions during the afternoon. Highlights have been
withheld this outlook given the more localized conditions
overlapping spotty fuels.
Surface lee troughing will also increase across the central Plains,
along with strong southerly surface flow, encouraging locally to
widespread Elevated dry and windy conditions. However, recent
appreciable rainfall accumulations, especially across central
Nebraska into the Dakotas, has likely dampened fuels to a degree,
precluding fire weather highlights this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 08/25/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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