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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.08.22 07:02z 339 Lines 12499 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4108_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 220823/1230Z 4108@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 23 08:55:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 23 08:55:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Aug 23 08:55:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 23 08:55:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Arizona,
the northern Rockies, northern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley
area, and parts of New England on Tuesday, but the organized
severe-thunderstorm threat appears low at this time.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper low is progged to remain over the Pacific Northwest
vicinity, hindered from progressing much by the prevailing upper
ridge which will remain over the West. Meanwhile, a short-wave
trough -- within broad/low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft across the
central and eastern states -- will shift across the Northeast
through the period.
At the surface, a weak front will linger from New England and the
East Coast states westward across the Gulf Coast states and into
Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward out of the
Canadian Prairie into the north-central and northwestern U.S.
through the period.
...Western and central Montana vicinity...
Scattered to isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the higher terrain of western Montana, and shift
eastward with time. Limited CAPE and modest flow aloft should limit
severe risk, though a stronger storm -- capable of producing
brief/strong surface gusts -- will be possible into the evening
hours.
...North Dakota...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop
across portions of North Dakota, ahead of a weak vort max shifting
southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie in moderate northwesterly
mid-level flow. A few stronger cells will likely evolve through
late afternoon/early evening, and with a rather deep mixed layer, a
strong gust or two cannot be ruled out. However, risk appears
likely at this time to remain below 5% threshold.
...Central and southern Arizona...
With a bit cooler air at high levels expected to spread across
Arizona today, a more unstable airmass is expected as compared to
Monday, which will likely result in widely scattered, strong storms
evolving near the Rim, during the afternoon. Aided by sub-cloud
evaporation, a locally damaging wind gust or two will be possible
with a couple of the strongest storms, but potential for a more
organized severe event appears to be limited, given rather weak
(around 10 kt) east-northeasterly mid-level flow off the Rim.
...Lower Mississippi Valley area...
Weak, southerly low-level flow expected from East Texas to southern
Mississippi will again -- similar to Monday -- contribute to modest
low-level veering/shear. However, weak mid-level flow suggests that
afternoon storms which develop over the region should remain largely
disorganized. Still, a weak/brief tornado, or stronger wind gust,
cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and into the evening hours.
...New England...
As a mid-level trough moves eastward across New England during the
afternoon, diurnal heating will support modest CAPE development.
While a stronger storm or two may become briefly capable of marginal
hail production, or a stronger gust or two, limited deep-layer shear
suggests mainly disorganized storms -- particularly given modest
amounts of CAPE expected.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 08/23/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the northern Rockies,
northern High Plains, Upper Midwest, and Arizona on Wednesday, but
the organized severe-thunderstorm threat appears relatively low at
this time.
...Northern Rockies...
Persistent upper ridging is forecast to remain centered over the
Four Corners region on Wednesday, while an upper low remains largely
stationary over the Pacific Northwest. A subtle shortwave trough is
expected to move northeastward in the corridor between the upper
ridging and upper low, moving across southern ID into southwest MT
Wednesday afternoon. Lift attendant to this shortwave will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development as it interacts
with the moist and buoyant air mass over the northern Rockies. A
strong storm or two is possible, but weak vertical shear should keep
the overall severe potential low.
...Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A surface low is expected to be centered near the SD/MN border early
Wednesday morning, before gradually moving eastward across southern
MN throughout the day. As it does, a cold front will move southward
into NE, with some low-level easterly/upslope flow into the northern
High Plains in its wake. Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated
across southern MN, northern/central IA, and eastern NE along the
cold front. Weak vertical shear will temper the severe potential.
Some additional thunderstorm development is possible back over
eastern WY, where low-level convergence between the post-frontal
easterly flow and the lee trough is maximized. Vertical shear will
be slightly stronger here compared to areas farther east, largely as
a result of low-level easterly flow veering to northwesterly aloft.
However, instability will be modest and guidance is inconsistent
with initiation location. As such, forecast confidence regarding
severe coverage is too low to introduce any probabilities with this
outlook.
...Central/Southern AZ...
Vertical shear will be weak, but thunderstorms are expected to move
off the terrain into the lower desert during the afternoon and
evening. A strong gust or two may occur, but the generally weak
mid-level easterly flow suggests limited severe potential.
...Southeast...
A convectively augmented shortwave trough and attendant surface low
will continue to slowly drift eastward across the Southeast states,
with numerous thunderstorms expected over the region throughout the
day. Guidance varies on the strength of the mid-level flow within
the eastern periphery of this shortwave. If the stronger solutions
verify, some risk for a brief tornado may materialize. However, this
variance introduces too much uncertainty for an outlook area.
..Mosier.. 08/23/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 23, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A strong thunderstorm or two is possible across the northern High
Plains on Thursday, but the organized severe-thunderstorm threat
appears relatively low at this time.
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the Four Corners early
Thursday. Some dampening of this ridging is anticipated throughout
the day as a slow-moving upper low moves through the northern
Rockies. Thunderstorms are anticipated across the northern High
Plains as this upper low interacts with the moist air mass over the
region. Guidance varies on the strength of the mid-level flow
attendant to this low, but a few strong to severe storms could
develop if the stronger solution materializes. Confidence is too low
to outlook an area with this forecast.
Thunderstorms are also possible ahead of weak front across the Mid
MS Valley, within the monsoonal moisture still in place across the
Southwest and central Rockies, and in the vicinity of subtle upper
low and associated surface low over the Southeast. In each of these
region, weak vertical shear should keep the severe threat low.
..Mosier.. 08/23/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 23, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper low is expected to be centered near the Montana/Alberta
border early D4/Friday. This low is expected to open up as it
becomes more progressive, moving eastward across southern
Saskatchewan and the northern High Plains on D4/Friday. This system
will then trend more northeastward as it moves across southern
Manitoba on D5/Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this
shortwave across the northern High Plains on D4/Friday as low-level
moisture and associated buoyancy return northward amid persistent
southerly/southeasterly flow
Thunderstorms are also possible across the Upper Midwest on
D5/Saturday, as a convectively induced shortwave trough interacts
with the moist airmass over the region. Storm severity will likely
be tempered by modest vertical shear and a preponderance of elevated
storms.
Upper pattern is forecast to trend more zonal this weekend as the
eastern CONUS troughing loses amplitude. The persistent ridging over
the Southwest will dampen as a series of shortwave troughs traverse
its northern periphery. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity
of these waves, but the stronger flow aloft will remain displaced
north across southern Canada, liming the severe potential. This
zonal pattern may be short-lived, with upper ridging expected to
build back across much of the CONUS early next week.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
While broad cyclonic upper flow will prevail east of the Rockies,
and a mid-level shortwave trough impinges on the West Coast today,
deep-layer winds/forcing should be weak, with dry and windy
conditions expected to remain constrained to terrain-favoring areas.
While isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, several of the
storms are expected to be wet. Spotty fuel beds may support isolated
lightning-induced ignitions. However, many earlier fire starts have
yet to grow rapidly, suggesting that fuels are modestly receptive at
best to significant wildfire spread. As such, dry thunderstorm
highlights have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 08/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will prevail across the eastern U.S., while the
western CONUS will remain under the influence of weak upper ridging
tomorrow/Wednesday. A weak mid-level cutoff low will also meander
around the northern Rockies to the north of the upper ridge. South
of this upper low, locally dry and breezy conditions may occur
across portions of far southeast Oregon into northern and central
Nevada around afternoon peak heating. A greater concentration of dry
thunderstorms is also likely across portions of the northern Rockies
(particularly central into eastern Idaho) compared to Day 1. As in
Day 1 though, dry thunderstorm highlights were withheld given
questionable fuel receptiveness to fire spread.
..Squitieri.. 08/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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