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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.04.19 07:03z 236 Lines 11941 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22672_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190424/0700Z 22672@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 97 SEVERE TSTM TX 240340Z - 241000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 97 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Tue
Apr 23 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far west to north-central
Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1040 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to
2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to locally severe storms may persist
into the early morning. Storms should tend to regenerate along the
same southwest to northeast corridor from the Trans-Pecos to near
the Metroplex.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles either side of a line from 60 miles southwest of
Fort Stockton TX to 50 miles east of Dallas TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This severe thunderstorm watch replaces
severe thunderstorm watch number 95...severe thunderstorm watch
number 96. Watch number 95 96 will not be in effect after 1040
PM CDT.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Grams
WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S 7R4 TO
5 SW LFT TO 30 N LFT TO 40 SSE ESF TO 10 NW ESF TO 20 E IER TO 30
N IER TO 5 S SHV TO 15 NNW GGG TO 35 WNW TYR.
..JEWELL..04/07/19
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-073-091-099-139-072340-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE MILLER
NEVADA UNION
LAC009-013-015-017-021-027-043-049-055-059-061-073-079-097-111-
119-127-072340-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE GRANT JACKSON
LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN OUACHITA RAPIDES
ST. LANDRY UNION WEBSTER WINN
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-449-459-499-072340-
WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW MRF TO
25 W FST TO 30 N FST.
A NEW WWW WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF
WW BY 04Z.
..KERR..04/24/19
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 96
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC043-377-240400-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER PRESIDIO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MAF TO
40 W ABI TO 45 WNW SEP TO 20 NW FTW.
A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW
BY 04Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 429.
..KERR..04/24/19
ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...MAF...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 95
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-085-093-095-103-105-113-121-133-139-143-173-
221-235-251-307-327-353-363-367-371-383-397-399-413-425-431-435-
439-441-443-451-461-465-240400-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN
COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO CRANE
CROCKETT DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH GLASSCOCK HOOD
IRION JOHNSON MCCULLOCH MENARD
NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER PECOS REAGAN
ROCKWALL RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SOMERVELL
STERLING SUTTON TARRANT TAYLOR TERRELL
TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243
AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind
damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of
south-central and southeast Texas today and into western Louisiana
tonight.
...TX and LA... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
this morning from portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley northeast
into northeast TX and behind a composite front/outflow. Although
an isolated strong to locally severe storm is possible during the
morning, it appears the severe risk will focus over south-central
TX beginning during the afternoon. Diurnal heating coupled with
moist south-southeasterly low-level flow will contribute to moderate
buoyancy by mid afternoon. As the mid-level low over southwest
TX moves into central TX by nightfall, a belt of strong 50-60 kt
southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread the destabilizing warm
sector. Supercells with an associated risk for large hail, severe
gusts, and a tornado are possible given the ample buoyancy/shear
profile---especially during the afternoon and early evening.
Models suggest the orientation of the southward sagging boundary
will favor a transition to upscale growth as additional storm
development/mergers occur. A couple of tornadoes embedded in the
squall line are not out of the question as the convective line
matures during the evening and moves from near/east of I-35 through
southeast TX into southwest LA. It is within this west-east corridor
severe gusts may become more widespread as stronger 700-500mb flow
becomes juxtaposed with a 40-kt southerly LLJ, near/southeast of
a weak surface low developing northeast from the Hill Country into
northeast TX. The projected timing of the wind threat begins in the
late afternoon, shifting east during the evening across southeast TX,
and likely persisting into the overnight into LA. It is possible a
higher probability tier of severe wind probabilities may be needed
but will defer to later outlooks.
..Smith/Karstens.. 04/24/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245
AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and
isolated tornado threat will be possible across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley on Thursday.
...Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low will move eastward
into the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a
low with an attendant cold front is forecast to move from east Texas
into northern Louisiana by afternoon. A moist airmass ahead of the
front, should destabilize during the day as thunderstorms develop
along and ahead of the front. A pocket of moderate instability will
be possible in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi where
NAM forecast have MLCAPE values peaking near 1500 J/kg. In addition,
forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear values in the 40 to 50 kt range
across the lower Mississippi Valley suggesting the shear environment
will be favorable for severe storms. At this point, storm mode is
still in question. Although supercells will be possible with discrete
cells ahead of the front, a bowing line segment appears the most
probable form of severe storm development. Wind damage is forecast
to be the greatest threat although an isolated tornado threat could
occur with supercells that develop across the moist sector ahead
of the front, and with rotating cells embedded in the line.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 04/24/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level low located over portions of West
Texas into northern Mexico will lift northeast throughout the
day into the lower Mississippi Valley. Farther north, a zonal
flow pattern along the northern tier of the CONUS will begin to
break down, with an upper-level ridge building into the Pacific
Northwest and a short-wave trough developing over the Northern
Plains. Mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned trough will
be marginally enhanced, near 40-50 kt. Afternoon mixing will result
in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, while RH values fall into
the 20-25% range. These processes should result in locally elevated
fire-weather conditions across portions of eastern Montana and
the Dakotas. Fuels across the region remain marginally receptive,
and with chances for afternoon thunderstorms/wetting rains across
some portions of the region, no highlights have been introduced at
this time.
..Karstens.. 04/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis... The upper-level low located over the lower
Mississippi Valley will phase with the short-wave trough over the
Northern Plains and move into portions of the Ohio Valley and
the Southeast. A pronounced mid-level jet will form behind the
trough over portions of the northern/central Plains, with 60-70 kt
northwesterly flow. At the surface, high pressure will move into
portions of central Montana while an area of low pressure develops
into eastern Ontario. A rather strong pressure gradient will develop
between these two features, with a cold front pivoting through the
Dakotas. In addition, afternoon heating will allow for downward
momentum transfer to further enhance surface winds behind the front.
...Northeast Montana and North Dakota... During the afternoon,
sustained northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts near 40 mph,
can be expected while RH values fall into the 15-25% range. Fuels
across the region remain marginally receptive and any precipitation
occurring on Day 1/Wednesday will act to limit the fire-weather
potential. However, it appears at least elevated conditions will
develop, with perhaps locally critical conditions depending on the
degree of vertical mixing and character of the post-frontal airmass.
..Karstens.. 04/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Q: Why do people who live near Niagara Falls have flat foreheads? A:
Because every morning they wake up thinking "What *is* that noise?
Oh, right, *of course*!
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