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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.08.22 12:49z 409 Lines 16484 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4297_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220826/1231Z 4297@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 26 07:49:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 26 07:49:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Aug 26 07:49:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 26 07:49:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible across the Northeast States on Friday, as well as across
parts of the northern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a pair of broad
upper-level troughs over the Great Lakes and northern Rockies. Both
of these features are expected to gradually translate east over the
next 24 hours, and will support the potential for organized
convection across New England and the northern High Plains
respectively.
...New England...
Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled modest (5-6 K/km) mid-level lapse
rates from the upper OH river valley into the Northeast, suggesting
that destabilization today will likely be conditional on the degree
of daytime heating. Partly to mostly cloudy skies this morning will
limit insolation, though areas that achieve sufficient clearing may
see temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s amid low 60s
dewpoints. A weak surface trough/cold front, noted in latest
observations/MSLP analyses over the Great Lakes region, is forecast
to reach the New England region by midday. This poor phasing with
the diurnal heating maximum (combined with patchy clouds) may limit
instability to around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, low to
mid-level winds ahead of the trough are forecast to increase to
20-40 knots, which should be supportive of a few organized
cells/clusters and perhaps a linear segment or two capable of
scattered damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Winds
ahead of the surface trough may be sufficiently backed to support
adequate low-level SRH to support a low-end tornado threat with more
intense, discrete cells.
...Northern High Plains...
A lee trough is expected to deepen across the northern High Plains
through the day as the northern Rockies upper wave gradually shifts
east. Modestly steep lapse rates sampled by 00 UTC soundings on the
southern periphery of the upper wave should remain in place and
support increasing buoyancy through the afternoon amid seasonally
high surface dewpoints in the low 60s. Instability may be limited
with eastward extent into the Dakotas due to lingering clouds/cooler
outflow air from an early-morning MCV, but a corridor of 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE appears probable by late afternoon. Thunderstorm
development along the surface trough (and possibly along a residual
outflow boundary/baroclinic zone over northeast WY/western SD) may
be limited given the somewhat weak forcing for ascent, but
south/southeasterly low-level flow should provide sufficient
effective shear for organized cells capable of isolated large hail
and severe winds.
...Eastern Dakotas/Central Minnesota...
The convectively-augmented leading shortwave trough/MCV currently
over western SD is expected to meander into the eastern
Dakotas/western MN by late evening. A strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet ahead of this feature will bolster theta-e advection
across the eastern Dakotas/central MN and provide increasing
buoyancy and ascent for elevated convection after 06 UTC. This
activity may be periodically intense enough to support a sporadic
hail threat through 12 UTC, but limited flow aloft should generally
limit storm organization.
..Moore/Kerr.. 08/26/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Upper MS Valley vicinity...
A mid/upper shortwave trough will be located over SK/MB and ND/MN
early Saturday morning. This feature should lift northeast through
the day. Meanwhile, another mid/upper shortwave trough over the
central High Plains will develop northeast toward eastern NE/SD and
western MN/IA by Saturday evening. The initial shortwave trough will
result in areas of showers/thunderstorms that are expected to be
ongoing at the beginning of the period near the MN/WI border. Cloud
cover is expected to linger over the Upper Midwest into parts of the
central Plains. Nevertheless, temperatures are expected to warm into
the 80s, with surface dewpoints in the 60s. A plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region initially, though
forecast soundings indicate capping through mid/late afternoon. As
large-scale ascent increases, capping may sufficiently erode such
that a few surface-based storms could be possible. However, this
remains uncertain. Regardless of storms being elevated or
surface-based, forecast hodographs and effective-shear magnitudes
greater than 30 kt indicate at least marginal supercells will be
possible. Moderate to strong instability also will support vigorous
updrafts, with hail and strong gusts being the main hazards. If
surface-based convection can develop, favorably curved, enlarged
low-level hodographs and moderate low-level instability suggest some
tornado potential also is possible.
Given uncertainty due to early day convection, persistent cloud
cover, potential for capping/elevated convection, and storm
coverage, will maintain the Marginal risk for now, though an upgrade
to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks.
...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley Vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as the central High
Plains mid/upper shortwave trough progresses northeast through the
afternoon. Areas of strong heating and surface dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s will contribute to modest instability. Weak vertical
shear will limit storm organization, though steep low-level lapse
rates and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest some
strong outflow gusts will be possible. The overall severe threat
should remain limited from thunderstorm clusters, precluding a
Marginal risk at this time.
...Central MT...
A compact and intense mid/upper shortwave trough will develop
east/southeast across the northern Rockies on Saturday. Steepening
midlevel lapse rates atop poor boundary-layer moisture will support
at least weak destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Strong
heating will aid in deep boundary-layer mixing, and inverted-v
sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles are evident in forecast soundings.
Increasing midlevel moisture on strengthening southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will be sufficient for thunderstorm development
over the higher terrain of central MT. As this activity spreads
eastward, occasional strong outflow winds will be possible. Given a
lack of better-quality boundary-layer moisture (limiting
instability), and very high-based and shallow convection, overall
severe potential appears limited/transient.
..Leitman.. 08/26/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 26, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper
Midwest on Sunday, though severe-thunderstorm potential appears low
at this time.
...Synopsis...
A compact mid/upper shortwave trough will progress eastward from
eastern MT to the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Ahead of this system,
another mid/upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across the
Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, a warm front will
lift northward across parts of IA/MN/WI, while a cold front advances
east across the Dakotas toward the Red River by 00z/Mon and the MS
River by 12z/Mon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing across parts of MN/IA/WI Sunday morning. This activity is
not expected to be severe, and should limit subsequent severe
potential into the afternoon hours across the Upper Midwest. If
morning precipitation and/or cloud cover is less than currently
forecast, some severe potential could develop in the vicinity of the
surface warm front across southern MN into WI. However, this
scenario appears too uncertain/conditional to introduce Marginal
severe probabilities at this time.
Further west across the eastern Dakotas into western MN/IA, a narrow
corridor of moderate to strong instability and limited inhibition
may develop along the eastward-advancing cold front late Monday
afternoon/early evening. Effective-shear magnitudes greater than 30
kt will support organized convection. However, this activity could
quickly become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, hail and strong
gusts could accompany storms that develop near the cold front.
Forecast guidance continues to vary with the timing of the mid/upper
shortwave trough and surface features, as well as with how much
convection may develop along the cold front. While some severe
potential appears possible, uncertainty remains too high to include
Marginal severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 08/26/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 26, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 5/Tue - Lower Great Lakes/Northeast...
An upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will pivot east/northeast
into portions of the Northeast on Tuesday. A seasonally moist
airmass and increasing southwesterly flow will overspread the region
ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Forecast guidance
currently develops quite a bit of precipitation across the region
early in the period, limiting stronger destabilization. Isolated
strong storms could occur across parts of OH/PA/NY, but confidence
is too low to include severe probabilities at this time.
...Elsewhere...
The southern/western extent of the aforementioned surface cold front
will drift southward across the southern Plains and the TN Valley
vicinity mid to late next week. This could become a focus for strong
storms, but deep-layer flow is expected to remain weak, limiting
vertical shear, which would favor poorly organized thunderstorm
clusters. Overall severe potential appears low for the much of the
rest of the CONUS, (outside of low-end potential on Day 5) for the
extended period.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited outside of the northern
Great Basin today. An upper-level trough over the northern Rockies
is forecast to gradually shift east into the Plains over the next 24
hours, which will support lee troughing along the northern to
central High Plains with generally weakening flow over the West.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across parts
of MT under the upper wave, but the overall fire weather threat will
remain limited.
...Northern Great Basin...
Although stronger mid-level flow will gradually depart the region to
the east through the day, continued zonal winds over the northern
Sierra Nevada will promote sufficient downslope warming/drying for
elevated wind/RH conditions across northern NV this afternoon. RH
values, struggling to climb out of the teens/low 20s overnight, will
likely fall into the teens (and perhaps single digits) this
afternoon as winds increase to around 15 mph. Latest ERC estimates
suggests fuels are adequately dry to support at least a low-end fire
weather concern.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC TFX and OTX soundings sampled cold temperatures aloft
under the northern Rockies upper-level trough. These thermodynamic
conditions will persist for today and support modest, but
sufficient, instability for convection by late afternoon despite
decreasing PWAT values within the dry slot of the upper low.
Forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE values may increase to around 250
J/kg with 2-3 km deep sub-cloud layers, favorable for dry lightning
potential. Furthermore, storm motions near 20-30 knots may act to
limit precipitation accumulations. While a few dry thunderstorms are
possible from western to central MT this afternoon, fuel status is
questionable after swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours
(per latest MRMS estimates).
..Moore.. 08/26/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is noted in morning water-vapor imagery over
the northeast Pacific. This feature is expected to gradually shift
southeast over the next 48 hours, moving into the Pacific Northwest
by Saturday afternoon. This will promote thunderstorm chances along
and east of the northern Rockies, as well as bolster low to
mid-level flow and fire weather concerns for the northern Great
Basin.
...Northern Great Basin...
Westerly mid-level winds will increase over the northern Great Basin
in response to the upper wave and ahead of an approaching cold
front. This will support strengthening downslope flow off the
northern Sierra Nevada into the northern Great Basin, as well as
strong winds through the upper Snake River Plain. Fuels across much
of this region are already dry after multiple days of afternoon RH
values in the teens/low 20s. Limited moisture return will maintain
antecedent dry conditions with RH minimums Saturday afternoon
expected to reach the low teens to low 20s. Confidence in critical
RH is highest across northern NV, but decreases with northward
extent due to the potential for mitigating cloud cover (though
20-25% RH appears probable based on latest ensemble solutions).
Sustained winds near 20 mph are likely across northern NV with
stronger winds near 25 mph expected for portions of the Snake River
Plain. Gusts between 30-40 mph appear probable for both regions.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected, and elevated
conditions may extend as far east as southwest WY (though fuels are
not as receptive with eastward extent).
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Moisture return into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will be
modest ahead of the approaching wave. PWAT values near 0.6 to 0.8
inches are expected across much of the region based on forecast
soundings. Lift along a diffuse cold front, coupled with modest
instability, will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
western to central MT Saturday afternoon. Recent hi-resolution
ensemble guidance hints that a mix of wet/dry convection is
possible, though fast storm motions may limit accumulations. Fuel
status remains uncertain given recent rainfall over the western half
of MT, but areas that remain dry by Saturday afternoon may see a
low-end dry thunderstorm risk.
..Moore.. 08/26/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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