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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.08.22 18:47z 345 Lines 13161 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4357_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220827/1230Z 4357@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 27 08:27:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 27 08:27:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Aug 27 08:27:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 27 08:27:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 27, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
evening across the portions of the southern/central Plains into the
Upper Midwest, and in southern and eastern Montana. Isolated severe
gusts and large hail are the main threats.
...Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A minor mid-level trough should advance east-northeastward
across the central Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest through
this evening. A plume of relatively rich low-level moisture will
extend from KS northeast into MN/WI. A weak front/surface
trough across the Plains likely serve as the western extent of any
appreciable severe risk.
Uncertainty remains regarding thunderstorm placement due to the
weakly forced regime. This uncertainty is continuing to be
displayed in the variability of storms in recent CAM models.
Nonetheless, it seems the greatest thunderstorm coverage will be
located from the TX Panhandle into central KS and in one or more
clusters in the IA/MN/western WI vicinity during the afternoon
through the evening. Steep lapse rates over the central/southern
Plains will favor isolated severe gusts/large hail with the most
intense storms. Farther northeast, strong effective shear will
promote greater storm organization potential. Isolated large
hail/damaging gusts are possible. If a storm can intensify along
the advancing warm front over central MN into western WI, low-level
rotation could occur with one or two of these storms. A gradual
waning in storm coverage/intensity is expected by mid evening as
instability decreases.
...Montana...
A vigorous mid-level trough will move from southern BC and WA
east-southeast into northern MT by early evening. Heating during
the day coupled with very steep mid-level lapse rates in the
presence of scant moisture, will lead to inverted-v profiles by late
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop near a cold front and these high-based storms will be
relatively low-topped given the meager buoyancy. Increasing flow in
the top of the boundary layer coupled with evaporative-cooling
potential will probably yield an isolated risk for severe gusts with
the more pronounced thunderstorm cores.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/27/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 27, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MN...WESTERN WI AND NORTHWEST IA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of Minnesota, western Wisconsin
and northwest Iowa. Hail and strong gusts will be main hazards with
this activity.
...Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper shortwave trough will be located over the Lower MO/Upper
MS Valleys Sunday morning, while a stronger mid/upper shortwave
trough is oriented over the northern High Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing across parts of IA/WI/IL Sunday
morning as the lead shortwave trough lifts northeast across the
Great Lakes. Severe potential across parts of the Mid-MS Valley into
WI/MI through peak heating is uncertain due to early day
convection/cloud cover.
At least isolated severe potential appears more likely further west
during the late afternoon into the evening hours across parts of MN,
northwest IA and western WI, as the northern High Plains trough
ejects eastward across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Stronger west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will accompany the
shortwave trough, overspread the Red River and Upper MS Valleys by
late afternoon. A cold front will progress eastward across the
Dakotas, becoming oriented north to south along the Dakotas/MN
border by around 21z. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and increasing
large-scale ascent, in conjunction with low-level frontal
convergence, should support scattered thunderstorm development near
the front across western MN by late afternoon/early evening. At
least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop south/southwest
along the front into northwest IA.
A seasonally moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate to strong instability. Effective-shear magnitudes around
35+ kt will support organized storms, with clusters and possibly a
couple of supercells possible. Convection may quickly become
undercut by the surging cold front, resulting in elevated storms to
the cool side of the front. Furthermore, the timing of convection
will coincide with increasing low-level inhibition around/after 00z.
Nevertheless, isolated strong gusts and hail will be possible with
this activity. A Marginal risk has been included for parts of
MN/WI/IA, with uncertainty in timing of convection and coverage of
more intense cells precluding higher probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/27/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 27, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from Lower
Michigan toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. A risk for damaging
gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.
...Mid-MS Valley Vicinity to the Great Lakes...
A mid/upper trough centered over the Upper Midwest Monday morning
will deepen while pivoting east across the Great Lakes. The
strongest west/southwesterly flow associated with the trough will
remain confined across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity,
decreasing with southward extent across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys.
A surface cold front should be oriented from the Upper Midwest
south/southwest to western KS Monday morning. Forecast guidance
varies in the east/southeast progression of the front, especially
across MO southwestward across the central Plains. The northern
portion of the front should be more progressive across the Great
Lakes vicinity, in tandem with the upper trough.
Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place
across much of the Midwest. Showers may be ongoing across parts of
the region Monday morning, but forecast guidance varies with
intensity and placement of early day convection. Nevertheless, a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates should extend from the central
Plains into parts of lower MI. This will aid in moderate to strong
destabilization ahead of the front. The most likely area for
organized thunderstorm development appears to be along the front
from central IL into Lower MI. There is enough agreement among
various guidance in the overlap of favorable shear/instability
within this corridor support at least isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms that a Marginal risk has been included. Damaging gusts
and hail appear to be the most likely hazards associated with this
activity.
Vertical shear and large-scale ascent decrease with
west/southwestward extent across MO into KS/OK. Furthermore,
forecast guidance varies with timing of the cold front, and with
thunderstorm development/coverage, precluding severe probabilities
extending further southwest at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/27/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 27, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
A mid/upper trough will develop eastward from the upper Great Lakes
to the Northeast on Tuesday. This will bring a belt of enhanced
west/southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to shift east/southeast from the Mid-MS
Valley/Lower MI to the OH Valley/western NY by late Tuesday
afternoon/early evening. Ahead of the front, at least modest
destabilization is expected with a moist airmass in place. However,
uncertainty exists regarding severe potential, as most guidance
develops periods of rain across the area in strong warm advection
ahead of the cold front. If pockets of stronger heating can occur,
some potential for damaging gusts and hail could accompany
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front from late afternoon into the
evening hours. Additional uncertainty exists in the timing of the
cold front, with some guidance more quickly progressing the front
eastward. These uncertainties will preclude severe probabilities at
this time.
...Elsewhere...
An upper trough will persist over the Northeast through at least Day
6/Thu while an upper anticyclone develops over the Great Basin.
Deep-layer flow will remain weak over much of the CONUS, while the
surface cold front moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
coast on Day 5/Wed. Building surface high pressure over the Midwest
will allow the southern/western portions of the cold front to sag
southward across parts of the southern Plains and southeastern
states through Day 6 or 7/Thu or Fri. However, little large-scale
ascent, and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. Overall
severe potential appears low across most of the CONUS beyond Day
4/Tue.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN...
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will progress across the
northwestern U.S. today, promoting scattered high-based
thunderstorms across the northern Rockies and dry/windy conditions
across the northern Great Basin. Critically dry and windy surface
conditions are most likely across northeast Nevada into southeast
Idaho by late afternoon, though locally Critical conditions are also
possible anywhere within the broader Elevated highlights, spanning
from the northern Sierra to the northern High Plains. Elevated and
Critical highlights have been withheld across southern into central
Montana since recent rainfall has likely dampened fuels over several
locales. The best chance for a couple of dry strikes as well as
gusty, erratic thunderstorm winds would also be in central into
southern Montana by late afternoon. Again, the lack of more
widespread receptive fuels precludes dry thunderstorm highlights.
..Squitieri.. 08/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains while upper
ridging gradually builds over the Interior West tomorrow/Sunday.
Despite the departing upper trough, up to 40 kts of 500 mb flow
should still overspread a dry boundary layer across parts of the
central into northern Rockies by afternoon peak heating. At least
locally Elevated surface conditions should develop across the Snake
River Plain in southern Idaho into eastern Wyoming, with windy,
occasionally dry conditions also likely across Montana into the
northern High Plains. Spotty fuel receptiveness or the lack of
widespread overlapping favorable winds/RH suggest that fire weather
highlights are not currently warranted.
..Squitieri.. 08/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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