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LU9DCE > ALERT 30.08.22 16:49z 255 Lines 8982 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4555_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-AUG22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220830/1230Z 4555@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 30 09:46:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 30 09:46:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Aug 30 09:46:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 30 09:46:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Aug 30, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast
Wednesday morning will shift east/northeast over Quebec and New
England. A surface cold front will extend southward across western
ME to just offshore from the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic
coast. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
vicinity of the front, but severe potential will remain limited due
to weak heating and the front quickly shifting east across the
region during the morning/early afternoon.
The western extent of the surface cold front will reside along the
coastal Carolinas to portions of central/southern MS/AL into central
TX early Wednesday. Disorganized thunderstorms will be possible in a
very moist and modestly unstable airmass. However, very weak
vertical shear and a lack of large-scale forcing will limit severe
potential.
Some post-frontal upslope flow across the central High Plains will
develop during the afternoon/evening. A very deeply mixed boundary
layer will reside across northeast CO into central NE, with
inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles evident in forecast
soundings. Nevertheless, enough instability will be in place
(500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) as a weak shortwave impulse emerges over the
region, and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Cloud bases will
likely be around 10-12 kft, with shallow convective depth.
Nevertheless, very steep low-level lapse rates and effective shear
magnitudes around 20-25 kt may be sufficient for a couple briefly
strong storms capable of gusty outflow winds. Severe potential
appears too limited/conditional to include marginal wind
probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/30/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 30, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough over New England Thursday morning will quickly lift
northeast over the Canadian Maritimes. Across the west, an amplified
upper ridge will persist. Across much of the rest of the
central/eastern CONUS a weak deep-layer flow, nondescript upper
pattern will emerge. Thunderstorm activity will be confined to
portions of the Southwest beneath the upper ridge, eastward through
the Gulf Coast/Southeast states where a seasonally moist and
unstable airmass will reside. A lack of large-scale ascent and weak
vertical shear will limit severe potential across the CONUS on
Thursday.
..Leitman.. 08/30/2022
Read more
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SPC Aug 30, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Fri - Upper Midwest...
A compact but strong upper trough will be oriented over Manitoba and
western Ontario on Friday. The stronger westerly flow associated
with this trough will brush the international border vicinity from
northern MN/WI and the Upper Peninsula of MI. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move east/southeast from the northern Plains
through the Upper MS Valley vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass
will be in place ahead of the front, and weak to moderate
destabilization is expected. Effective shear will remain modest, but
some potential for isolated strong to severe storms appears possibly
across parts of the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon/evening. Severe
probabilities will not be introduced at this time, given the
somewhat marginal environment and timing differences with respect to
the surface cold front, though low-end severe probs may be needed in
subsequent outlooks.
...Elsewhere...
Severe potential appears low across the CONUS beyond Day 4. An upper
ridge will persist across the western U.S. while weak troughing
develops across the Great Lakes/Midwest. Any stronger deep-layer
flow will remain north of the international border, limiting
organized severe potential.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the CONUS. A
broad upper ridge will continue to build to the west across the
Great Basin today. This will favor warming temperatures and mostly
dry conditions across much of the West that will aid in drying
fuels. However, this will also result in meager low to mid-level
flow, mitigating overall fire weather potential. Localized concerns
may emerge across parts of the northern Great Basin and parts of the
Pacific Northwest.
...Northern Great Basin into eastern Oregon...
Locally breezy winds are possible this afternoon across the northern
Great Basin into parts of eastern OR as deep boundary-layer mixing,
combined with local terrain enhancements, support occasional gusts
to 15-20 mph. Antecedent warm/dry conditions with RH values in the
teens will allow for pockets of elevated conditions. Such conditions
will likely remain too limited spatially and temporally to require
highlights, but may result in local fire weather concerns -
especially given the potential for holdover fires from early-morning
lightning strikes across portions of northwest NV. Additional
isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
eastern OR/western ID as the weak upper disturbance lifts
north/northeast, but the probability of thunderstorms remains too
limited to introduce lightning-driven highlights.
..Moore.. 08/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
Regional fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the
Pacific Northwest for Wednesday afternoon. A weak upper-level
disturbance, currently noted in water-vapor imagery off the West
Coast, is forecast to advance northward into the Pacific Northwest
through the day Wednesday. Increasing zonal winds over the northern
Sierra Nevada and Cascades will increase downslope flow and gap
winds during the afternoon hours. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably
strong probability for 15-20 mph winds across far northeast
CA/northwest NV into southern OR. Given antecedent warm/dry
conditions and receptive fuels, this will likely coincide with
afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens to support elevated
fire weather conditions. Elevated conditions are also possible
through the Columbia Gorge, but may be more localized in nature.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
A modest influx of mid-level moisture combined with weak ascent
ahead of the upper disturbance should be sufficient for isolated
thunderstorms across central to northern WA and northern ID
Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic
profiles for weak convection, with cloud bases between 3-4 km AGL
and boundary-layer mean RH as low as 15%. Hi-res ensembles support
this idea with a modest convective signal in a region of reduced
PWAT values near 0.75 in., further hinting at the potential for dry
lightning. Given the dry fuels across the region and recent fire
activity, lightning-driven highlights are introduced.
..Moore.. 08/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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