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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.09.22 12:34z 225 Lines 8569 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4677_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220901/1231Z 4677@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 1 09:48:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 1 09:48:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Sep 1 09:48:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 1 09:48:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 1, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A weak mean mid/upper level trough will persist from the Midwest
toward the Northeast on Saturday. Stronger westerly deep-layer flow
will remain over Ontario and Quebec, with vertical shear becoming
quite weak over the central/eastern CONUS. A strong upper
anticyclone will remain over the Great Basin/southwestern states,
while a compact shortwave trough migrates across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across the southern
Plains into the MS/OH Valley and Southeast. A cold front will extend
from northern Lower MI into northwest OK Saturday morning and sag
slowly east/southeast through the period. Pockets of moderate to
strong destabilization are possible across the warm sector. However,
weak large-scale ascent and poor vertical shear will limit organized
severe-thunderstorm potential. Sporadic strong gusts aided by
water-loaded downdrafts could occur across parts of the southern
Plains to the OH/TN Valley vicinities, but overall
severe-thunderstorm potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 09/01/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 1, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the western U.S. will persist through Day 5/Mon
or Day 6/Tue before a large-scale upper trough overspreads the
region late in the period, and shifts the upper ridge east across
the central U.S. Deep-layer flow will remain very weak east of the
Rockies through much of the period, with little focus for organized
thunderstorm activity. As such, severe potential will remain low
during the Day 4-8 period.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected across the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains this afternoon as an upper wave translates
across the region. A pair of upper troughs, noted over the northern
Rockies and northwestern Canadian Prairies in morning water-vapor
imagery, are expected to phase as they crest a Great Basin upper
ridge. This phasing will enhance mid-level flow and shift a Canadian
surface low into the Plains through the day. The passage of an
associated cold front across the northern Plains, coupled with
strengthening flow, will support breezy conditions over a region
with receptive fuels and antecedent dry conditions.
...Montana...
Latest guidance has delayed the passage of the Canadian cold front
across northern/central MT until later in the afternoon/evening
compared to previous model runs. While strong surface winds may be
less expansive than anticipated, a deepening lee trough and
strengthening zonal flow off the Rockies will foster breezy
downslope winds. Temperatures in the 90s and RH minimums in the
teens to 20s remain likely and will maintain the potential for
elevated fire weather conditions. A wind shift to the
north/northwest associated with the frontal passage is still
expected later today, but may occur just after peak daytime heating
during the 00-03 UTC time frame.
...Snake River Plain and Wyoming...
00 UTC soundings from BOI and RIW sampled very dry boundary-layer
conditions across ID and WY. Recent surface observations show
overnight RH values are struggling to recover out of the 20-30%
range. Such conditions are conducive for another day of deep
boundary-layer mixing, which will aid in downward transfer of the
strengthening mid-level flow over the region this afternoon.
Sustained winds between 15-20 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph
appear likely. Confidence remains high in elevated, to briefly
critical, conditions through the Snake River Plain. To the east
across WY, fire weather concerns are possible across much of the
state, but may manifest as numerous pockets of somewhat transient
elevated conditions. An Elevated risk area has been introduced for
portions of WY that are most likely to see sustained and
sufficiently widespread elevated conditions - namely in the lee of
prominent ranges. Further refinement of this risk area is possible
as guidance comes into better agreement over the next 12 hours.
..Moore.. 09/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will return to the Pacific Northwest and
portions of the central Plains on Friday. A dominant Great Basin
ridge will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours, but will
deamplify slightly as a shortwave trough impinges on its
northwestern periphery, strengthening flow over the northern Sierra
Nevada in the process. To the east, a departing upper wave over the
Canadian Prairies will help push a weak cold front into the Plains.
Breezy post-frontal conditions will support fire weather concerns
outside of pockets of recent rainfall.
...Northern Sierra Nevada into Southern Oregon...
An upper-level shortwave trough, noted over the eastern Pacific in
water-vapor imagery, is forecast to move ashore into the Pacific
Northwest Friday. Increasing mid-level flow along the northern
Sierra Nevada will yield dry and breezy downslope winds across
northeast CA/northwest NV into central OR. RH reductions into the
teens are likely, and may reach as low as near 10% per drier/windier
solutions. Elevated conditions are expected prior to the passage of
a cold front during the evening hours, and several ensemble members
suggest critical conditions are probable during peak heating.
However, considerable spread among deterministic guidance is noted
and limits confidence in the coverage of critical conditions.
Critical highlights may be needed in future forecast updates as
guidance comes into better agreement.
...Central Plains...
A cold front associated with a surface low over the Canadian
Prairies is expected to push south into the Plains through the day
Friday. Cold advection behind this front will be modest and allow
diurnal RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Breezy post-frontal
winds between 15-20 mph are expected, resulting in elevated fire
weather conditions from northeast CO into north-central NE. MRMS
rainfall estimates from the past 24 hours reveal pockets of heavy
rain through this corridor, though many locations received limited
rainfall. Dry conditions through Friday afternoon will maintain ERC
values near the 90th percentile and support a fire weather risk
outside of the pockets of heavier rainfall. The spatial coverage of
the fire weather risk may be conditional on the placement of the
front by late afternoon. Furthermore, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible along the boundary and may support strong
to severe outflow winds (see the latest Day 2 convective outlook for
additional details).
..Moore.. 09/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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