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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.09.22 14:34z 334 Lines 12788 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5063_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220905/1230Z 5063@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 5 08:42:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 5 08:42:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Sep 5 08:42:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 5 08:42:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across parts of
central Texas this afternoon.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate over the western CONUS
for today with a broad, weak troughing over the OH and lower MS
river valleys. Weak perturbations are noted in recent water-vapor
imagery within the synoptic trough, and will meander northeastward
across the southern/central Appalachians into the Northeast, helping
focus thunderstorm activity this afternoon. While pockets of
enhanced mid-level flow are likely across this region, poor
mid-level lapse rates (sampled by 00 UTC RAOBs) will likely limit
storm intensity. A few strong to severe gusts are possible across
the Four Corners and central California this afternoon where
low-level lapse rates are expected to be fairly steep amid strong
diurnal heating. CAM consensus on convective coverage remains very
poor given weak/localized forcing for ascent. As such, confidence in
a sufficiently widespread severe risk remains too limited to
introduce risk probabilities.
...Central Texas...
Relatively higher probability of strong/severe winds will reside
across central TX. Thunderstorm development along a diffuse frontal
boundary is likely by the late afternoon hours. Steeper lapse rates
aloft coupled with seasonal boundary-layer moisture will support
around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. This favorable buoyancy combined with
steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong to severe
outflow winds. Relatively weak flow aloft will limit storm
organization, but coalescing outflows from thunderstorm clustering
may bolster the potential for strong/severe gusts.
..Moore/Jewell.. 09/05/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
As one significant perturbation within the westerlies shifts east of
the Canadian Northwest Territories and Prairies, and another more
compact impulse slowly accelerates toward the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast, models indicate that broad
mid-level ridging centered over the Great Basin may expand and build
further during this period. Downstream, weaker mid-level troughing
is forecast to advance southeast of the Canadian Maritimes and New
England coast, accompanied by the leading edge of more substantive
lower/mid-tropospheric cooling and drying. Otherwise, seasonably
moist conditions will persist to the south of the frontal zone, and
southeast of weak positively tilted mid-level troughing lingering
along an axis from the lower Ohio through lower Mississippi Valleys
into the northwestern Gulf coast. It still appears that this
environment will again become supportive of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms on Tuesday, particularly during the afternoon and
evening. Some of these could be accompanied by gusty winds, but
probabilities for severe storms appear generally negligible (less
than 5 percent).
..Kerr.. 09/05/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
A short wave trough within the westerlies, near the British Columbia
into Pacific Northwest coast at 12Z Wednesday, appears likely to
progress inland during this period. As it does, models indicate
that upstream flow may undergo considerable amplification, including
building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific toward
the British Columbia coast. Downstream of the ridging, the initial
impulse may begin to split, with the trailing southern portion
digging across southern British Columbia, toward the northern
Rockies, and increasingly contributing to suppression of the
initially broad, persistent mid-level ridge centered over the Great
Basin.
Within southwesterly flow ahead of the inland advancing mid-level
trough, a plume of very warm, deeply mixed lower/mid-tropospheric
air is forecast to nose northeast of the northern Rockies, as
large-scale forcing for ascent contributes to surface cyclogenesis
from the lee of the Canadian Rockies through the Canadian Prairies
by late Wednesday night. However, low-level moistening across much
of this region likely will remain quite limited, as seasonably moist
air remains confined to the southeast of weak lingering positively
tilted mid-level troughing gradually shifting southeastward and
becoming centered over the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
Coast region.
Within the moist air, destabilization with daytime heating is again
expected to support considerable scattered thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Other more widely scattered
thunderstorms also will be possible across a broadening area of the
West, mainly near the higher terrain. However, the risk for severe
thunderstorms is expected to remain generally negligible.
..Kerr.. 09/05/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Models continue to suggest low pattern predictability in the
extended range, with sizable spread concerning short wave
developments within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific into North America by next weekend, which grows further
through early next week. This includes the uncertain evolution of
one short wave trough which probably will be in the process of
digging into the northern Rockies vicinity by the beginning of this
period. Some model output has and continues to be suggestive that
this impulse may contribute to larger-scale troughing splitting off
the main belt of westerlies, with a slow moving embedded mid-level
low eventually evolving somewhere across the Great Lakes vicinity
next weekend. But even within and among the models indicating this,
there has been substantial spread.
Regardless, it still appears that the evolution of a closed cyclonic
mid-level circulation within weaker flow across the lower
Mississippi Valley/central Gulf coast vicinity will hinder
substantive moisture return (and associated destabilization) to
continuing initial surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Canadian
Prairies into southern Hudson Bay on Thursday. While subsequent
developments across the Great Lakes into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny
Plateau vicinity remain unclear, at this time there appears little
signal within the guidance that suggests more than marginal or
isolated severe weather potential through this period.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will linger across the northern Rockies for
today as a winds increase within a hot/dry boundary layer. A belt of
strong mid-level flow is expected to shift from the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies over the next 24 hours as a
low-amplitude upper wave shifts into western Canada. This will
support a breezy and dry downslope wind regime across parts of ID
into central/northern MT where fuels continue to cure after several
days of hot conditions.
...Northern Montana to North Dakota...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected from north-central MT
into far western ND this afternoon. A surface low/lee trough is
evident across the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairies in
early-morning surface observations/analyses. This feature will shift
east through the day in tandem with the upper disturbance,
establishing a westerly downslope wind regime across much of MT.
Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will help downward transfer of
strengthening mid-level flow as RH values fall into the teens and
low 20s. Sustained winds near 15 mph will be accompanied by frequent
gusts between 20-30 mph. Brief periods of critical conditions are
possible, but confidence in the duration/coverage of 20+ mph winds
remains low. Recent fire activity across the region indicates that
fuels remain receptive and will support the fire weather threat. A
cold front is expected to push across north/northeast MT during the
overnight hours, bringing a wind shift to the north/northwest.
...Idaho...
The 00 UTC BOI sounding sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1
km mean RH near 12%. With little moisture flux into the region
expected over the next 24 hours, similar low-level thermodynamic
conditions are anticipated for this afternoon. Strong diurnal
heating through the Snake River Plain will support deep
boundary-layer mixing and RH reductions into the low teens (and
possibly single digits) by mid afternoon. Sustained winds near 15-20
mph may occasionally gust to 25 mph. Elevated conditions appear
likely, and brief/localized periods of critical conditions are
possible.
...Northwest NV into southern OR...
Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon from far
northeast CA/northwest NV into southern OR. Widespread RH reductions
below 15% are likely with pockets of breezy winds between 15-20 mph.
With the stronger synoptic pressure gradients shifting to the east
away from the region through the day, such winds will most likely be
confined to the vicinity of terrain features, limiting confidence in
a more widespread fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 09/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Regional fire weather concerns will persist for parts of the
northern Sierra Nevada/southern Cascades for Wednesday. Persistent
troughing across the northeastern Pacific, juxtaposed with a
dominant upper ridge over the Great Basin, will maintain a belt of
modest mid-level flow over the Northwest. Combined with antecedent
hot/dry conditions, these winds will result in areas of elevated
fire weather conditions. Elsewhere across the northern Rockies and
Plains, dry conditions will prevail, but weak surface winds will
limit further concerns.
...Northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades...
Mostly clear skies will facilitate strong diurnal heating and deep
boundary-layer mixing by early afternoon across northern CA into OR
and northern NV. Coupled with antecedent dry conditions,
temperatures in the mid 90s will drive RH values into the low teens.
Downward transfer of stronger mid-level flow will help support winds
between 15-20 mph, especially in the vicinity of terrain features.
While some deterministic solutions hint at only localized elevated
conditions, a strong signal in hi-res ensemble guidance lends enough
confidence to introduce a risk area.
..Moore.. 09/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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