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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.09.22 12:36z 448 Lines 18754 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5192_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220907/1230Z 5192@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 7 08:34:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 7 08:34:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Sep 7 08:34:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 7 08:34:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 7, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN OREGON...CENTRAL IDAHO...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MT...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts will be possible
from eastern Oregon into central Idaho and western and central
Montana, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper ridge, centered over UT, currently covers much of
CONUS west of the MS River. Upper troughing is in place over the
eastern CONUS. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move through
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, moving from British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest into Saskatchewan/eastern MT during the
period. Another shortwave trough is forecast to follow quickly in
wake of the lead wave, moving through British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest by early Thursday morning. This evolution will lead to a
dampening/partial breakdown of the western CONUS ridging.
Additionally, Hurricane Kay is expected to move northward off the
coast of the Baja Peninsula. This system will likely reach the
central Baja coast by early Thursday morning. Progression of this
system will act to suppress the southwestern extent of the upper
ridge while also increasing low to mid-level moisture across
southern CA.
Farther east, the modest upper trough is forecast to gradually shift
eastward, ending the period extended from off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast southwestward through the central Gulf Coast.
...Interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/High
Plains...
Shortwave trough mentioned in synopsis will be accompanied by
moderate mid-level flow as well as increased mid-level moisture.
Main forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected to
reach the interior Pacific Northwest during the early afternoon,
before then continuing northeastward across the northern Rockies
during the late afternoon. This timing will allow for strong heating
ahead of this ascent, which, when combined with the increasing
mid-level moisture, will support modest buoyancy. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as the ascent interacts with this buoyancy, with
storm bases above 10kft.
Storm intensity will be tempered by the modest buoyancy, but the
high-based character of the storms and deeply mixed boundary layer
will still support the potential for strong downbursts winds.
Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected from southeast OR
northeastward across central ID into southwest/south-central MT.
...Central/East TX eastward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic...
Ascent attendant to the modest upper trough combined with ample
low-level moisture is expected to result in scattered thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening within the corridor from central TX
across the Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across southeast TX/southwest
LA in the vicinity of a weak embedded shortwave trough, and over
eastern NC near a weak surface low over eastern SC. Weak vertical
shear and poor lapse rates should limit the overall severe
potential.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/07/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 7, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes
vicinity late Thursday afternoon and evening, posing at least some
risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that the westerlies will undergo
considerable amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the
Pacific into North America through this period. This is forecast to
include building mid-level ridging across and inland of the British
Columbia coast Thursday through Thursday night.
Downstream of this ridging, the remnants of preceding mid-level
troughing will gradually become absorbed within cyclonic flow around
the southern through southeastern periphery of a significant
mid-level low, which is forecast to slowly turn southwestward to the
northwest of Hudson Bay. It appears that this will be accompanied
by the northeastward migration of a deepening surface cyclone from
central Manitoba into Hudson Bay, and an intrusion of cooler air
through much of the northern Great Plains and adjacent portions of
the upper Great Lakes region by daybreak Friday.
As trailing mid-level troughing digs into the northern
Rockies, and Kay continues to migrate north-northwestward off the
southern Baja coast, mid-level ridging initially centered over the
Great Basin will break down substantially further.
Farther east, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to shift off the
northern Atlantic coast. An associated cold front may stall and
weaken across the across the southern Mid Atlantic coast into
Tennessee Valley and Mid South vicinity, as a broad lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone becomes better developed within weak flow
centered near the Louisiana coast.
...Upper Great Lakes vicinity...
Although the northward return of seasonably high moisture content
will be impeded, modest moisture remains present within a corridor
across the lower central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. At
least some further moistening is possible through Thursday, as a
plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air advects as
far east-northeast as the Lake Superior vicinity before becoming cut
off. This may support a narrow pre-frontal corridor of mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg across parts of central through
northeastern Minnesota by late Thursday afternoon. While this is
fairly modest, the steep lapse rates, coupled with sufficient
vertical shear near the southern periphery of stronger
lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, may contribute to an
environment at least marginally conducive to organized severe
convection as far south as northeastern Minnesota by early Thursday
evening. This may initially include a supercell or two, with severe
hail and wind the primary potential hazards.
..Kerr.. 09/07/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 7, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Friday through Friday night.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that a deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone may begin
to redevelop eastward and northeastward across northern Hudson Bay
during this period. However, at mid-levels, the eastward
progression of trailing positively tilted troughing into the
northern U.S. Great Plains probably will be slower, as another
smaller-scale perturbation digs across the northern Rockies. It
appears that an associated low-level cold intrusion to the lee of
the Rockies will advance out ahead of the cooling aloft, across the
Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region and much of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Saturday.
In lower latitudes, while Kay probably begins to turn northwestward
and westward away from northern Baja, seasonably high moisture
content may continue to advect into southern California and portions
of the lower Colorado Valley. Otherwise, high moisture content will
generally remain confined to portions of the Southeast, with some
northward advection to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley, as
a broad low within weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow centered near
the Louisiana coast begins to elongate in the north-south direction,
in advance of the digging troughing in the westerlies.
Highest thunderstorm probabilities Friday/Friday night are expected
to remain focused within the moist air across the Southeast, with
additional scattered thunderstorm development probable near the
higher terrain of the Southwest. Convection with embedded
thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Great
Plains into Upper Midwest, but this probably will be mostly
post-frontal, with negligible risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 09/07/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 7, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that the stronger westerlies will remain
confined to the northern mid-latitudes (and generally north of the
Canadian/U.S. border) through this period. However, flow is
forecast to trend more zonal farther south, with much of the U.S.
coming under the increasing influence of a modest belt of westerlies
emanating from the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the
eastern Pacific by the middle of next week.
Early in the evolution of this regime, models continue to indicate
that one significant short wave trough (initially digging to the
southeast of the northern Rockies early this coming weekend) will
split off the main belt of westerlies as an embedded mid-level low
evolves. For days now, though, depiction of subsequent evolution
and eastward progression toward the Atlantic coast has been quite
varied, and large spread remains evident in the latest model output.
Despite these differences, associated surface cyclogenesis has been
forecast to remain generally weak. Additionally, this appears
unlikely to be accompanied by the eastward advection of a
significant plume of elevated mixed-layer air. And cloud
cover/thermal and moisture advection trends, associated with a low
centered near the Louisiana Gulf coast at the outset of the period,
may impact destabilization as the perturbations interact near/east
of the Mississippi Valley. It currently seems probable that all of
this will tend to marginalize the risk of severe storms across and
east of the Mississippi Valley into early next week, however severe
weather probabilities may not be completely negligible.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OREGON...CENTRAL IDAHO AND MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN...
...Synopsis...
A strong pattern shift is forecast across much of the western CONUS
today and tonight as the prominent ridge of high pressure is broken
down by a strengthening Pacific trough. Unseasonably strong winds
aloft along with increasing forcing for ascent will overspread the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, while a cold front sweeps
out of southern Canada. Ahead of the front, an unstable atmosphere
along with very warm temperatures and strong winds will support
weather conditions favorable for dry thunderstorms as well as
extreme fire behavior.
...Northern Rockies and adjacent plains...
Across portions of northern ID and MT, westerly winds are forecast
to increase early this morning and through much of the day ahead of
the approaching cold front. Enhanced by strong surface pressure
gradients from the deepening lee low across the southern Canadian
Rockies, west-southwest surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely by
early afternoon. Deep vertical mixing to 600 mb evident on regional
model soundings also shows potential for stronger surface gusts
(40-50+ mph) as 50-65 kt of flow aloft approaches. Coincident with
peak heating, the well-mixed boundary layer, very warm surface
temperatures, and downsloping westerly flow will support low teens
to single digit RH values. The combination of hot, dry and windy
conditions within very dry fuels lends high confidence to widespread
critical and extremely critical fire weather conditions across
portions of northern and central MT.
Extreme fire weather conditions should continue through the
afternoon ahead of the fast-moving cold front arriving after dark.
While cooler temperatures and increasing humidity will accompany the
frontal passage, a rapid wind direction change to northerly flow is
also expected. Fire weather concerns may linger for a few hours
overnight before winds gradually decrease and surface humidity
recovers.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Ahead of the cold front, dynamic ascent and modest mid-level
moisture associated with the approaching upper trough will support
isolated to scattered thunderstorms from northern CA, through
portions of the northern Great Basin, into the northern Rockies.
Forecast sounding show generally 0.5 to 0.75 in PWAT values with
100-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Below the unstable layers, high LCLs (2-3 km
AGL) and with fast storm motions will favor poor precipitation
efficiency and the potential for strong outflow winds over much of
the West. Recent fire activity indicates that fuels remain highly
receptive across the region and will support critical
lightning-driven fire weather concerns.
Storm coverage is expected to be greatest along the cold front from
portions of eastern OR, central ID, into western MT. HREF lightning
probabilities show high confidence in the potential for scattered
strike coverage atop highly receptive fuels in this area.
Additionally, the risk for convective outflow gusts greater than 60
mph also suggests a high probability of critical fire weather
concerns across this region given the expected storm potential. A
Scattered dry thunderstorm area was introduced, and additional
information related to the severe weather risk is available in the
Day1 Convective Outlook.
...Cascades and northern Great Basin...
Across the Cascades and Great Basin westerly flow will remain strong
in the wake of the cold front farther east. Bolstered by increasing
flow aloft from the upper trough, widespread 15-25 mph surface winds
are expected along with low humidity. Widespread elevated fire
weather conditions are expected within dry fuels. Critical fire
weather conditions will also be possible across portions of the
northern Great Basin across southern OR, and far northern CA/NV.
Here, higher confidence in winds greater than 25 mph exists along
with afternoon humidity values below 15%.
..Lyons.. 09/07/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL IDAHO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis...
As the upper trough over the Northwest continues eastward into
Thursday, flow aloft will linger over the central/northern Rockies
and High Plains. A cold front will continue south, supporting
thunderstorms and strong gusty winds ahead of it. With very warm
temperatures and gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are
expected across portions of the central Rockies and onto the Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Ahead of the cold front, a lee low is expected to develop across
eastern WY and western SD Thursday afternoon. Bolstered by the
increase in the surface pressure gradient and lingering flow aloft,
low-level southerly flow is forecast to increase across portions of
eastern CO, NE and into the eastern Dakotas Thursday afternoon.
Southerly winds of 20-25 mph and higher gusts are expected near the
surface low. Concurrent with anomalously hot temperatures (90-100+
F) very dry surface conditions are forecast to develop. Diurnal
minimum RH values of 7-15% within already dry fuels will support
widespread elevated and critical fire weather concerns given strong
surface winds. Fire weather concerns may linger into the evening
hours as the cold front approaches bringing a strong wind shift and
lingering gusty winds to central NE. Fire weather conditions should
gradually abate overnight as RH values recover and winds weaken.
...Central Idaho...
Westerly winds behind the cold front will remain strong across
portions of central ID and the Snake River Valley through much of
Thursday. Sheltered from the deeper moisture farther east, low teens
to single digit RH values and 20-25 mph winds will likely support
several hours of critical fire weather concerns. Given recent robust
fire activity and expected antecedent lightning, critical fire
weather concerns are likely.
...Dry Thunder...
Behind the front, pooled mid-level moisture should support isolated
thunderstorms across the higher terrain of central and northern WY.
Along the southern fringes of these storms, higher LCLs may favor a
drier storm mode with the potential for dry lightning strikes within
receptive fuels. What remains unclear is the coverage of drier
storms given the southward motion of the front and increasingly
cooler/humid air with time. While some risk for lightning ignitions
is possible, confidence in dry thunder probabilities remains too low
to introduce an IsoDryT area at this time.
..Lyons.. 09/07/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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