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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.09.22 12:49z 320 Lines 11551 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5488_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0RES<ON0AR<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220911/1230Z 5488@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 11 08:38:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 11 08:38:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Sep 11 08:38:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 11 08:38:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Sunday.
...Discussion...
Northern stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig southeast with
an upper low settling into northern IL during the latter half of the
period. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature will likely
contribute to scattered convection across the Midwest/OH Valley
region; however, forecast lapse rates/buoyancy do not appear
adequate enough to warrant more than gusty winds with the most
robust storms ahead of the advancing cold front.
As the upper low digs into northern IL later Sunday, lower MS Valley
short-wave trough will lose amplitude and weaken as it begins to
eject northeast late in the period. This flow regime continues to
favor seasonally high PW corridor from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
into the Middle Atlantic. Scattered convection will readily develop
ahead of this feature from the eastern Gulf Basin into southeast VA.
While a few storms may exhibit loose organization at times, poor
lapse rates/buoyancy do not favor a meaningful threat for severe.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of the
southwestern US later today as favorable southerly flow persists
through a deep layer across the Baja Peninsula into AZ. Ample
moisture and modest lapse rates suggest a few robust storms may
evolve during the late afternoon/evening. However, current thinking
is gusty winds should remain isolated and mostly sub-severe.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 09/11/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio
Valley and much of the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday.
...Middle/Upper OH Valley...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over
northern/central IL early Monday morning, with moderate mid-level
flow arcing through its southern periphery from IA to the MO/IL/KY
border vicinity and into the middle OH Valley. Expectation is for
this cyclone to progress gradually eastward/northeastward across the
OH Valley throughout the period.
Primary surface low associated with this system will likely be over
northeastern IL early Monday. This low is expected to remain
stationary while become increasingly occluded throughout the day.
Cold front attendant to this low should initially extend from
central OH southward into western NC and then back southwestward
across AL. This front is forecast to push eastward throughout the
day, reaching from central NY into central SC by Monday evening.
Airmass ahead of this front will be characterized by dewpoints in
the mid 60s across the upper OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic and
upper 60s farther south across VA and NC. Heating will be limited by
cloud cover but temperatures should still reach the mid to upper
70s, fostering modest buoyancy despite poor mid-level lapse rates.
As a result, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
as it pushes eastward. The stronger mid-level flow will remain west
of the front, but modest vertical shear is still anticipated as
low-level southerly/southeasterly occurs beneath mid- and
upper-level southwesterly flow. The resulting combination of
instability and vertical shear may be just enough to support a few
strong to severe storms. Primary severe threat is damaging wind
gusts, although a tornado or two is also possible.
...Great Basin...Southwest...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Kay will continue to slowly move
across southern CA, with associated moisture supporting
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Great Basin and
Southwest. Highest storm coverage is currently expected over AZ, but
poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit the severe
coverage. Strong water-loaded downbursts would be the primary
concern.
..Mosier.. 09/11/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 11, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern New
England on Tuesday.
...Northeast/New England..
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over southern
Lower MI/southwestern Ontario early Tuesday morning, before
progressing northeastward over the Lower Great Lakes throughout the
day. Cold front associated with this system will be east of the
mid/upper cyclone, beginning the period arcing from a low/triple
point over central Ontario into central NY and then southward
through eastern PA. A weak frontal low is also expected over the
Hudson Valley early Tuesday, with a warm front extending eastward
across MA.
As the cold front progresses eastward, the frontal low will shift
northeastward, with this evolution helping to bring upper 60/low 70s
dewpoints into southern New England. At the same time, moderate
mid-level flow will spread across the region ahead of the upper low.
This combination of favorable low-level moisture and strengthening
deep-layer shear will result in area of potential severe
thunderstorms across southern New England from the late morning into
the early afternoon. Introduction of a mid-level dry slot into the
region during afternoon should limit the severe potential
thereafter. Primary severe risk is damaging wind gusts, although a
tornado or two is also possible.
...Southwest/Great Basin/Intermountain West...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Kay are expected to progress across
the Great Basin towards the northern/central Rockies as a shortwave
trough on Tuesday. Lift and moisture attendant to this system will
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with the highest
storm coverage anticipated over northern AZ and northwest NM. Modest
buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the severe potential.
..Mosier.. 09/11/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 11, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Post-frontal conditions are expected to be in place across the
eastern CONUS on D4/Wednesday. Expansive surface ridging is then
forecast to build across the region, persisting through the weekend.
Resulting stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms across the
region throughout the extended period.
Airmass modification may begin on D4/Wednesday across the Plains as
a series of shortwave troughs move through the western CONUS upper
troughing. However, even with moderate to strong southerly low-level
flow in place across the Plains, expansive surface ridging over the
eastern CONUS will keep trajectories unfavorable for large-scale
moisture return through the end of next week. Despite that, low 60s
dewpoints may still manifest in the vicinity of a surface low
expected to move slowly through the northern Plains on D5/Thursday
and Upper Midwest on D6/Friday. Thunderstorms are possible near this
low and associated fronts, but buoyancy and shear are expected to
remain modest, keeping the severe potential low.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will encompass the western CONUS,
while a belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow crosses the northern
Rockies along the northern periphery of the ridge. As the enhanced
westerly midlevel flow intercepts the Lewis Range in northern MT,
10-15 mph sustained surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH could lead
to locally elevated conditions. However, current indications are
that fuels are only receptive on a spotty basis owing to recent
precipitation -- precluding Elevated highlights.
Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of strong winds and low RH should
generally limit the fire-weather risk outside of terrain-favored
areas along the Cascades.
..Weinman.. 09/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over
the western states, a midlevel trough will move eastward across the
Pacific Northwest. Preceding the trough, a series of embedded
cyclonic impulses will overspread a plume of midlevel moisture
extending northward across the Great Basin. Farther east, surface
low pressure will lift east-northeastward from SK into ON Canada,
while a trailing cold front sweeps southward across the northern
Plains.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the midlevel trough, coupled
with sufficient midlevel moisture/instability, will support isolated
high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin during the
afternoon and early evening hours. As these storms overspread a
diurnally deepening boundary layer, precipitation will initially be
limited owing to sub-cloud evaporative cooling and modest
southwesterly storm motions. Given receptive fuels across the
region, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible --
especially in the early stages of storm development and away from
any precipitation cores.
...Northern High Plains...
Breezy northerly surface winds near 15 mph will be possible behind
the southward-advancing cold front, where 15-20 percent RH is
expected. The breezy surface winds and low RH could favor elevated
fire-weather conditions (particularly over eastern MT and far
western ND), though these conditions look too marginal and brief for
Elevated highlights at this time.
..Weinman.. 09/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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