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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.09.22 18:06z 341 Lines 12538 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5555_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 220912/1500Z 5555@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 12 08:54:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 12 08:54:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Sep 12 08:54:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 12 08:54:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND OVER ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina on Monday, with occasional
damaging winds the main threat. A few severe thunderstorms also
appear possible across portions of Arizona.
...Middle Atlantic to NC...
Notable upper low over northern IL will deepen as it tracks across
the northern OH Valley during the first half of the period. Latest
model guidance suggests high-level difluent flow and mid-level
height falls will spread across the OH Valley during the day which
should encourage scattered convection along/ahead of a cold front
that should arc from western NY-central PA-western VA/NC during the
afternoon. While low-level flow/convergence is not forecast to be
that significant along the front, surface-6km bulk shear will likely
support organized updrafts and possible supercells within a very
moist and weak lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the
Delmarva exhibit the greatest risk for potential supercells. Even
so, gusty winds, and perhaps some hail, appear to be the main risks
with the most robust storms.
...AZ...
Upper ridge is forecast to shift into the southern/central Rockies
by the end of the period. This will allow an upper trough off the
northern Baja Peninsula to advance across the northern Gulf of CA
toward AZ, although gradual weakening is expected as this feature
ejects northeast. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be
particularly strong, latest model guidance suggest 500mb winds may
increase to near 20-25kt by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit
seasonally steep surface-3km lapse rates, and this is expected to
aid gusty winds where robust updrafts and clustering evolve.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 09/12/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 12, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across New England on
Tuesday.
...Northeast/New England...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over southern
Lower MI/southwestern Ontario early Tuesday morning, before
progressing northeastward over the Lower Great Lakes throughout the
day. Cold front associated with this system will be east of the
mid/upper cyclone, beginning the period arcing from a low/triple
point over central Ontario into central NY and then southward
through eastern PA. A weak frontal low is also expected over the
Hudson Valley early Tuesday, with a warm front extending eastward
across MA.
This cold front will progress eastward throughout the day, pushing
through much of southern New England by 00Z Wednesday. As the cold
front progresses eastward, the frontal low will shift northeastward
in tandem, with this evolution helping to bring upper 60/low 70s
dewpoints into southern New England. Mid 60s dewpoints are possible
into much of VT and NH.
Recent guidance has trended more progressive with the upper low,
with the moderate mid-level flow surrounding the low also spreading
farther east. Consequently, modest buoyancy will be colocated with
strengthening mid-level flow and increasing forcing for ascent. The
resulting environment will support thunderstorm development, with a
few strong to severe storms possible. Primary storm mode is expected
to be multicellular, but some clusters/bowing line segments are
possible. A supercell or two could also develop, particularly across
CT/RI/MA vicinity where southerly low-level winds could overlap 70s
dewpoints. Damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat, but a
tornado or two is also possible, particularly if supercell
development is realized.
...Southwest/Great Basin/Intermountain West...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Kay are expected to progress across
the Great Basin towards the northern/central Rockies as a shortwave
trough on Tuesday. Lift and moisture attendant to this system will
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with the highest
storm coverage anticipated over northern AZ and northwest NM. Modest
buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the severe potential.
Additionally, a northeasterly storm motion across AZ will take the
storms that do develop away from the steep low-level lapse rates of
the lower deserts.
..Mosier.. 09/12/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 12, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across the Florida
Peninsula as well as over the Rockies on Wednesday. A few
thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday morning. Severe-thunderstorm potential
is low.
...Synopsis...
Expansive surface ridging is anticipated within the post-frontal
airmass across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, which should keep the
majority of the region free of thunderstorms. The only exception is
FL, where low-level moisture will remain in place as the front
slowly progress southward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
anticipated across the peninsula late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon.
Lee troughing is forecast across the High Plains, ahead of a
shortwave trough moving from the central/northern Rockies into the
northern Plains. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated within this
troughing, with the resulting low progressing gradually across SD.
Moisture across the Plains will be modest, but isolated
thunderstorms are still possible as the front associated with this
low impinges on a deeply mixed and modestly unstable airmass during
the late afternoon across SD. Additional thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday night amid the warm-air advection fostered by a strong
low-level jet. Both buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear will be
modest, keeping the severe potential low.
Farther west, the airmass over the Intermountain West and
northern/central Rockies will be characterized by precipitable water
values from 0.75 to 1". This moisture will help promote afternoon
air mass destabilization and scattered thunderstorms across the
Rockies. Weak flow and modest buoyancy should keep storms
sub-severe.
..Mosier.. 09/12/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement for
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday, suggesting that a surface low will move
gradually from the Dakotas northeastward through the Upper Midwest.
Thunderstorms are possible near this low and associated fronts, but
buoyancy and shear are expected to remain modest, keeping the severe
potential low.
Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Saturday, with variability (both
run-to-run and model-to-model) regarding the evolution of a
shortwave trough moving over central CA early D6/Saturday. The most
recent guidance has trended towards greater severe potential across
the Upper/Mid MS Valley on D7/Sunday and D8/Monday, but the
variability limits forecast confidence.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
The northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge
centered over the western states will break down in response to an
eastward-advancing midlevel trough over the Pacific Northwest. At
the surface, low pressure will track east-northeastward from SK into
ON Canada, while a trailing cold front sweeps southward across the
northern Plains.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Preceding the midlevel trough over the Pacific Northwest, an
embedded shortwave impulse will track northeastward across the
northern Great Basin. As strengthening large-scale ascent
accompanying this feature overspreads a plume of midlevel moisture
emanating from the eastern Pacific, isolated to widely scattered
high-based thunderstorms should develop. Deep boundary-layer mixing
beneath the midlevel moisture will result in inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles -- supporting dry thunderstorms initially.
Given receptive fuels over the northern Great Basin, isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially during
the early stages of storm development and away from any heavier
precipitation cores. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also develop
with the more robust storms.
...Northern Plains...
Behind the southward-advancing cold front over the northern Plains,
breezy northerly surface winds near 15 mph will be possible. Those,
coupled with 15-20 percent RH, will favor elevated fire-weather
conditions over eastern MT, western ND, and far northwestern SD
during the afternoon/early evening hours.
..Weinman.. 09/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level ridge initially centered over the Rockies will
shift eastward toward the MS Valley, while broad/enhanced
west-southwesterly midlevel flow develops over the western CONUS.
Embedded within the west-southwesterly midlevel flow, a negatively
tilted shortwave trough should cross the central Rockies, resulting
in the deepening of a surface low in the lee of the northern
Rockies.
...Northern and Central Plains...
Peripheral to the deepening surface low, a tight pressure gradient
will result in strengthening winds over the central High Plains and
northern Plains. For the central High Plains, 10-15 percent RH
combined with 15 mph sustained south-southeasterly surface winds may
favor elevated conditions. However, recent precipitation over this
area casts uncertainty on receptiveness of fuels -- precluding
Elevated highlights. Farther north over the northern Plains, breezy
east-southeasterly post-frontal surface winds near 15-20 mph are
expected. With that said, cool boundary-layer conditions within the
post-frontal airmass should temper any substantial RH reductions --
generally limiting the fire-weather risk.
...Lee of the Northern Sierra and Southern Cascades...
The enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow perpendicular to the
northern Sierra and southern Cascades will result in downslope
warming/drying along with 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface
winds. Those winds and 15-20 percent minimum RH could yield locally
elevated conditions in the immediate lee of the northern Sierra and
southern Cascades. However, these conditions appear too localized
for Elevated highlights at this time.
..Weinman.. 09/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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