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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.09.22 12:35z 324 Lines 12727 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5615_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220913/1230Z 5615@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 13 08:54:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 13 08:54:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Sep 13 08:54:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 13 08:54:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 13, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
YORK INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts, isolated hail, and a
brief tornado or two are possible today from eastern New York into
parts of New England, with the greatest threat expected during the
afternoon into the early evening.
...Eastern New York into parts of New England...
A midlevel cyclone is expected to traverse the lower Great Lakes
region during the day today, before evolving into an open wave and
moving across northern New England this evening. As this occurs, a
surface cyclone is forecast to gradually deepen over northern New
England into southern Quebec, as an attendant cold front moves
across New York into southern New England by this evening.
Multiple rounds of convection are possible from eastern New York
into parts of New England today, as ascent associated with the
approaching midlevel cyclone spreads across a relatively moist
environment. Morning convection/cloudiness may tend to limit diurnal
destabilization, but some modest heating will be possible in the
wake of early-day activity, prior to the arrival of the cold front.
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is expected by early afternoon, with locally
higher values possible wherever temperatures can warm into the
mid/upper 70s F. Renewed storm development will be possible
along/ahead of the front by early afternoon, with increasing
deep-layer shear supporting the potential for a few organized storm
clusters and/or marginal supercells.
Even if organized storms develop, some uncertainty remains regarding
the severe potential, with the environment not expected to be overly
favorable for any particular hazard. Wind damage appears to be the
most likely threat, given the potential for a few longer-lived
clusters to move through the region. A 15% wind area has been added
where confidence is highest in the development of organized
convection during the afternoon. Generally weak midlevel lapse rates
will limit the overall hail threat, though some hail cannot be ruled
out with any sustained supercell. Low-level flow/shear will not be
particularly strong, but a brief tornado or two will also be
possible, especially where surface winds become backed in the
vicinity of any boundaries generated by early convection and/or
differential-heating zones.
...Arizona...
A midlevel trough (associated with the remnants of T.C. Kay) is
expected to gradually weaken and shift northeastward through the
day. Some drying and reduction in storm coverage is expected across
southwest/south-central AZ, but scattered thunderstorms are again
expected from northern into southeast AZ during the
afternoon/evening. At this time, deep-layer shear is expected to
remain rather weak, which should tend to limit any organized
severe-thunderstorm risk.
..Dean/Weinman.. 09/13/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 13, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across the Florida
Peninsula as well as over the Great Basin and Rockies on Wednesday.
A few thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Severe-thunderstorm
potential is low.
...Great Basin into the northern Plains...
Broad upper troughing is forecast to move gradually eastward across
the western CONUS towards the Plains, with several embedded
shortwave troughs progressing eastward as well. Evolution of this
upper trough will promote an eastward shift of the upper ridging
initially over the Plains, with this expectation that the ridging
will extend over the MS Valley by early Thursday morning. Increased
mid-level moisture will accompany this upper trough, contributing to
showers and thunderstorms from the Great Basin eastward to the
Rockies. Limited buoyancy and vertical shear will keep the severe
potential low with any of these storms.
Surface lee troughing will likely deepen across the High Plains as
the upper trough approaches, with surface cyclogenesis expected over
western SD. The resulting low is then forecast to gradually move
eastward across the central Dakotas throughout the evening and
overnight. Low-level convergence is expected along a trough
extending southward from the low into the central High Plains.
Limited moisture return and deep boundary-layer mixing should limit
thunderstorm prospects along the trough, with only a storm or two
currently anticipated.
Additional elevated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night
across the Dakotas, amid the warm-air advection fostered by a strong
low-level jet. Both buoyancy and cloud-layer vertical shear will be
modest, with most of the strong flow confided below the LCL. These
conditions should limit the coverage of any strong to severe storms,
although a robust updraft or two is possible. Currently, the severe
coverage is expected to remain below 5%.
...FL...
Expansive surface ridging is anticipated within the post-frontal
airmass across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, which should keep the
majority of the region free of thunderstorms. The only exception is
FL, where low-level moisture will remain in place as the front
slowly progress southward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
anticipated across the peninsula late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon. Weak vertical shear should keep storms
sub-severe.
..Mosier.. 09/13/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 13, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected across the northern Rockies, northern and
central Plains, and Florida Peninsula on Thursday.
Severe-thunderstorm potential is low.
...Northern/Central Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central High Plains
Thursday morning into the Mid MO Valley by early Friday morning. A
surface low associated with this shortwave should begin the period
over the central Dakotas before shifting eastward into the MN/ND/SD
border intersection vicinity throughout the day. An attendant trough
will extend southwestward from this low to another weak surface low
over the central High Plains on Thursday morning. Northern portion
of this surface trough will make modest eastward progress together
with the parent surface low, while the southern portion remains
largely stationary in tandem with the central High Plains low.
Low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this surface
trough, with dewpoints likely in the mid/upper 50s Thursday
afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing within this modestly moist
airmass will support limited buoyancy during the late
afternoon/early evening. Consequently, isolated thunderstorm
development is possible, primarily from western KS into central NE.
However, there is some uncertainty regarding overall moisture
return, which then raises questions about buoyancy. Additionally,
vertical shear will be weak, limiting the severe potential of any
storms that do develop. As such, no probabilities will be added with
this outlook over the Plains.
...Elsewhere..
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated across the
FL Peninsula, as a moist low-level airmass interacts with a weak
front across region. Weak vertical shear will keep storms
sub-severe.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern Rockies, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving
through the northern Great Basin. Limited buoyancy and shear should
preclude severe storms.
..Mosier.. 09/13/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 13, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern early D4/Friday is forecast to be characterized by
modest cyclonic flow from the western CONUS into the Plains and
upper ridging from the Southeast across the Upper Midwest. A
shortwave trough embedded within the cyclonic flow over the
northern/central Plains is expected to move from the Mid MO Valley
into the Upper Midwest on D4/Friday. Thunderstorms are possible near
the front associated with this wave, primarily D4/Friday night amid
a strengthening low-level jet. Thunderstorms are anticipated again
across the Upper Midwest D5/Saturday evening and overnight as the
low-level jet strengthens again from the central Plains into the
Upper Midwest.
Medium-range guidance continues to show both run-to-run and
model-to-model variability with the evolution of an upper trough
expected to drop into the Pacific Northwest on D5/Saturday. More
recent runs of the guidance have trended towards deep upper
troughing over the western CONUS by D6/Sunday, in contrast to the a
more progressive evolution of this system in earlier runs. Some
severe appears possible whenever this system ejects into the Plains,
but variability within the guidance currently limits forecast
confidence. Based on the most recent guidance, the highest potential
for severe thunderstorms is on D7/Monday from the central Plains
into the Upper Midwest.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will move eastward from the Rockies toward the
MS Valley, while broad midlevel troughing and modest
west-southwesterly flow aloft encompass the western CONUS. Within
the broad west-southwesterly flow, an embedded shortwave trough will
emerge over the central Rockies, resulting in the deepening of a
surface low in the lee of the northern Rockies.
...North-Central High Plains...
In response to the deepening surface low in the lee of the northern
Rockies, breezy southerly surface winds near 15 mph will develop
across much of the northern and central High Plains. Over southeast
MT through eastern WY, downslope warming/drying will result in 10-15
percent RH amid the breezy surface winds. Given a lack of recent
accumulating rainfall over this area and modestly receptive fuels,
elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible during the
afternoon/early evening hours. Elevated conditions may also occur
southward along the I-25 corridor and plains of northern CO, though
recent rainfall casts uncertainty on receptiveness of fuels --
precluding highlights there.
Farther north over northeast MT into western ND, breezy
east-southeasterly surface winds are also expected. However, a
post-frontal airmass over this area should temper any substantial RH
reductions -- generally limiting the overlap of breezy winds and low
RH.
...Northern Sierra and Southern Cascades...
The west-southwesterly midlevel flow perpendicular to the higher
terrain could result in 15-20 percent minimum RH in the immediate
lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades. These dry
conditions, coupled with 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds could lead to locally elevated conditions.
..Weinman.. 09/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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