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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.09.22 12:46z 341 Lines 12549 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5682_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220914/1230Z 5682@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 14 08:31:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 14 08:31:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Sep 14 08:31:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 14 08:31:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NE
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD...
...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible this
afternoon and evening from western Nebraska into parts of South
Dakota.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
today. Multiple embedded vorticity maxima within the longwave trough
are forecast to emerge over the Great Plains through the period, as
a downstream upper ridge shifts slowly eastward toward the
lower/mid-MS Valley. A surface cyclone is forecast to move slowly
eastward from Montana into the Dakotas, with a lee trough extending
southward into the central/southern High Plains, and a warm front
extending eastward toward the eastern Dakotas and central/northern
MN.
...Parts of the central/northern Plains...
Rather strong diurnal heating is expected across parts of the
central/northern Plains, along/east of the lee trough and
along/south of the warm front. Modest moisture return will support
the development of weak to moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE increasing
into the 500-1500 J/kg range by late afternoon. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the lee trough, and also
farther east from north-central NE into central/eastern SD, along
the leading edge of deeper returning moisture. While deep-layer
shear will likely remain relatively weak, inverted-v profiles and
increasing low-level flow will support a threat of isolated
severe/damaging gusts, even if convection remains relatively
disorganized.
Elevated convection may expand in coverage later tonight across
parts of ND/MN. Steep midlevel lapse rates could support an isolated
hail threat with this activity, but confidence in this scenario is
too low to include late-period hail probabilities at this time.
...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near/east of the lee
trough into the southern High Plains. Isolated strong gusts will be
possible with these storms, but buoyancy and low-level flow are
expected to be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, and
the threat of severe gusts appears too low to extend wind
probabilities into the region at this time.
..Dean/Weinman.. 09/14/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN NE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
possible from the Texas Panhandle across central Kansas and into
eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Great Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central High Plains
Thursday morning into the Mid MO Valley by early Friday morning.
During the same time frame, a surface low associated with this
shortwave should move from the central Dakotas eastward into the
MN/ND/SD border intersection vicinity throughout the day. An
attendant trough will extend southwestward from this low to another
weak surface low over the central High Plains on Thursday morning.
Northern portion of this surface trough will make modest eastward
progress together with the parent surface low, while the southern
portion remains largely stationary in tandem with the central High
Plains low.
Low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this surface
trough, with dewpoints likely in the mid/upper 50s Thursday
afternoon. Strong heating is anticipated throughout the boundary
layer, with temperatures likely in the upper 80s to low 90s from the
TX Panhandle into eastern NE. This heating and associated mixing
amid the modestly moist low-levels will help destabilize the air
mass, supporting thunderstorm development along the trough during
the late afternoon/early evening.
Enhanced southerly low-level flow is expected amid the tight surface
pressure gradient across the Plains, but mid to upper level flow
attendant to the shortwave will be modest (i.e. around 25 to 30 kt
at 500 mb). The resulting wind profile will a yield modest
deep-layer vertical shear, likely favoring a disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm mode. Given the high cloud bases and deeply
mixed boundary layer, strong gusts could result from the most robust
storms. Isolated hail is also possible, but coverage is currently
expected to be less than 5%. Tornado potential is very low.
...Elsewhere..
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated across the
FL Peninsula, as a moist low-level airmass interacts with a weak
front across region. Weak vertical shear will keep storms
sub-severe.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern Rockies, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving
through the northern Great Basin. Limited buoyancy and shear should
preclude severe storms.
..Mosier.. 09/14/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 14, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Upper Midwest and Central High Plains on Friday.
...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to be in place over the western
CONUS early Friday, with a corridor of modestly enhanced mid-level
flow stretching from southern CA across the central Plains and into
the upper/mid MS Valley. A lead shortwave trough embedded within
this corridor is expected to move into the Upper Midwest, with
another shortwave following in its wake from the Great Basin across
the central Rockies into the northern High Plains.
...Upper Midwest...
Surface low attendant to the lead shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis is forecast to be over southwestern MN early Friday
morning. This low is expected to shift eastward in tandem with its
parent shortwave, moving into northwest WI by Friday night. Strong
southerly surface winds will precede this low, facilitating
increased convergence along both the cold front and warm front.
Buoyancy will be tempered by widespread cloud cover and poor lapse
rates, but thunderstorms are still expected to develop within the
warm sector. Veering low-level winds with height may support
isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing a damaging
gust and/or brief tornado.
...Central High Plains...
Lee troughing is forecast to deepen across the High Plains ahead of
the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis, with surface
cyclogenesis possible near the WY/SD/NE border intersection by
Friday evening. Southeasterly upslope flow is expected from central
Plains into this developing surface low, accompanied by modest
low-level moisture advection. These southeasterly surface winds will
exist beneath moderate westerly flow aloft, resulting in 30 to 40 kt
of effective bulk shear across the region.
Late afternoon thunderstorm development is possible along the lee
trough, particularly near the deepening low over eastern WY.
Eastward storm motion would take these storms into the more buoyant
air mass over NE during the evening, with the potential for
additional storm development in this region as well. Isolated
supercells are possible within this environment, with damaging gusts
and hail as the primary threat. Potential exists for upscale growth
and the development of forward-propagating convective line, but
uncertainties regarding mesoscale details limit predictability at
this forecast range.
..Mosier.. 09/14/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 14, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to struggle with consistency, with
the latest iteration suggesting the development of a substantial
upper ridge across the central CONUS on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. As
this ridge develops, a shortwave trough is expected to drop along
the West Coast while deepening into a closed circulation.
Eventually, this low then ejects northeastward across the Great
Basin and central Rockies, although the timing of this advance
varies greatly within the most recent guidance.
Some severe does appear possible, either over the north-central
CONUS on the northern periphery the strong upper ridge or with the
West Coast upper low as it ejects eastward. However, given the model
variability, forecast confidence in any particular scenario is low.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will remain centered over the MS Valley, while
broad midlevel troughing and enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft
persist over the western states. Embedded within the
west-southwesterly flow, a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
will cross the Rockies, reinforcing a surface lee trough over the
northern and central High Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Southerly surface winds will strengthen across the Plains in
response to the deepening lee trough. At the same time, increasing
boundary-layer moisture and scattered to broken mid/high-level
clouds may limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected.
Despite the marginal RH reductions, 20-25 mph sustained southerly
surface winds (with 30-35 mph gusts) could yield locally elevated
fire-weather conditions during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. This will especially be the case over parts of northeast CO,
northwest KS, and southwest NE -- where pockets of 25 percent
minimum RH will be possible prior to the development of showers and
storms. With that said, the aforementioned cloud coverage, widely
scattered showers and storms, and marginal fuels cast uncertainty on
the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at
this time.
..Weinman.. 09/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad midlevel troughing and moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft
will persist over the western CONUS, supporting the maintenance of a
surface lee trough over the Plains. Breezy southerly surface winds
will continue to affect the central and southern Plains owing to a
tight pressure gradient peripheral to the lee trough, though
sufficient boundary-layer moisture and cloud coverage should temper
RH reductions. The marginal RH and continued shower/thunderstorm
development should generally limit fire-weather concerns despite the
breezy/gusty surface winds.
..Weinman.. 09/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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