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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.04.19 07:33z 140 Lines 7298 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22741_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 25 04
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190425/0700Z 22741@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 100 TORNADO LA TX 250455Z - 251100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and western Louisiana Far
southeast Texas
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1155 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...Long-lived supercell crossing the Sabine River may continue
to pose a near-term tornado threat. Additional storms forming in a
line to its south may intensify as well with an associated damaging
wind and brief tornado risk through dawn.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Fort Polk
LA to 50 miles east northeast of Shreveport LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 25025.
...Grams
WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE LFK TO
40 WSW IER TO 25 NNW IER TO 35 SSW ELD.
..MOSIER..04/25/19
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-011-013-021-039-043-049-059-069-073-079-085-115-127- 250740-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALDWELL
EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES SABINE
VERNON WINN
TXC241-351-403-457-250740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER NEWTON SABINE TYLER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION
ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239
AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and
isolated tornado threat are expected over parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley through the central Gulf Coast region Thursday.
...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Region...
Dynamically driven MCS is progressing across the ArkLaTex
region early this morning. This complex of storms is forecast
to propagate across the lower MS Valley ahead of a pronounced
short-wave trough/associated surface front. Over the next 12+ hr,
boundary-layer moisture is expected to increase across the warm
sector, downstream of this feature. Latest guidance suggests PW
values well in excess of 1.5" will advance inland ahead of the front
and extensive clouds/precip should limit pre-frontal heating across
the warm sector. Even so, modest 12hr mid-level height falls are
expected to spread across the lower MS Valley/central Gulf State
region which reflects large-scale forcing for ascent that will
spread across lower latitudes during the day.
Early-day MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period.
Several organized line segments may ultimately evolve ahead of the
short wave which could produce bowing structures and perhaps a few
tornadoes. Forecast soundings across the lower MS Valley through
the Gulf Coast region exhibit strongly sheared profiles which would
favor organized rotating updrafts, including supercells; however,
the main storm mode should primarily reflect a larger complex of
storms due to the high PW content air mass and large scale forcing.
Damaging winds can be expected with bowing-type structures. More
meaningful tornado threat will be affiliated with any supercell
structures that manage to develop within the modestly buoyant regime.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/25/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247
AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind
damage threat are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula,
the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
...Florida Peninsula... An upper-level trough will move across the
eastern Gulf Coast States on Friday. At the surface, a cold front
will advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle
during the morning, and onto the Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F
will result in destabilization across much of the Florida Peninsula
by late morning. In spite of the moist airmass, deep-layer shear
is forecast to be on the weak side for organized convection. NAM
forecast soundings suggest the environment will support marginally
severe multicells. As low-level lapse rates become steep ahead of
the front during the early afternoon, a few isolated damaging wind
gusts will be possible.
...Carolinas/Mid Atlantic... An upper-level trough will move
eastward into the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachian
Mountains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the 60 to 65 F range should result in some
destabilization by midday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the front and move eastward, approaching the Atlantic coast
during the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain
weak, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates,
evident on NAM forecast soundings, may support a marginal wind damage
threat with the stronger multicell line segments. The threat should
end by early evening as the cold front moves offshore.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 04/25/2019
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