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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.09.22 14:34z 311 Lines 11162 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5828_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220916/1230Z 5828@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 16 08:58:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 16 08:58:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Sep 16 08:58:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 16 08:58:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central
Plains on Friday.
...Central Plains...
Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level
short-wave trough over NV, advancing east in line with latest model
guidance. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across southern
NV into western CO by 18z, then into NE during the late evening.
This feature should encourage a weak surface lee low to back into
northeast CO by peak heating, then to be dislodged into NE/northern
KS where weakening is expected by 17/12z.
Strong boundary-layer heating will once again be noted along the lee
trough from west TX into southwestern NE and southeast WY. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temperatures may be breached by 21-22z,
and large-scale support ahead of the aforementioned short wave
appears favorably timed for scattered robust convection. NAM 22z
sounding for OGA exhibits surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt
with steep surface-3km lapse rates. It appears supercells will
evolve by late afternoon across the central High Plains where SBCAPE
will likely be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. While initial
activity should evolve near the lee trough, a synoptic front draped
along the SD/NE border may focus convection as it oscillates across
this region through the end of the period. Large hail can be
expected with these storms, along with possible severe gusts.
Scattered strong/severe convection should spread into central NE by
late evening. Subsequent movement should allow this activity to
spread toward the mid MO River Valley late as LLJ veers into this
portion of the central US.
..Darrow/Jirak.. 09/16/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE THUNDER LINE IN GULF COAST AREA
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts are
possible on Saturday from parts of the central Plains into the Upper
Midwest.
...Central Plains/Upper Midwest...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday from the
Intermountain West to the Great Lakes, as a shortwave trough moves
northeastward across the north-central United States. In response to
the shortwave trough, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet will move
northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development
will be possible in the morning near the nose of the jet from
eastern Nebraska into Iowa. This convection should move
northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley by midday, allowing
for moderate destabilization ahead of a cold front further to the
south. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon from eastern Kansas
northeastward into Iowa. In response, surface-based thunderstorms
appear likely to develop to the west of the low-level jet within the
instability corridor. This convection may remain intact through much
of the evening, moving slowly east-northeastward into the mid to
upper Mississippi Valley.
Concerning the shear environment, the models suggest that moderate
deep-layer shear will be possible along parts of the instability
axis. The most likely location for moderate deep-layer shear will be
in Iowa near and south of a mid-level speed max, evident in the NAM
and GFS forecasts. NAM forecast soundings late Saturday afternoon in
western and central Iowa have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 kt range.
Substantial directional shear is also present, suggesting
supercell-like structures will be possible, sufficient for an
isolated severe threat. Hail and a few strong wind gusts would
accompany the stronger cells. However, the forecast soundings in the
same area suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will only be in the
6.5 to 7.0 C/km range. The weakness in lapse rates should be
problematic for greater severe threat coverage.
..Broyles.. 09/16/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of the Upper
Midwest Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Upper Midwest...
Mid-level flow will become westerly on Sunday throughout the Upper
Midwest as an upper-level ridge builds across the south-central
states. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into
mid Mississippi Valley during the day. Isolated thunderstorm
development will be possible during the day along a corridor of
instability from eastern parts of the central Plains into the
western Great Lakes. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
shortwave trough, thunderstorm development is expected to steadily
increase in the late afternoon and early evening. It appears that a
cluster of storms will form near the nose of the low-level jet and
move east-southeastward from Iowa into northern Illinois.
At the surface, a front is forecast across southern Iowa extending
eastward into western Lower Michigan. South of the boundary,
moderate instability is forecast to develop by mid to late
afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In
addition, forecast soundings have steep low to mid-level lapse rates
with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This suggests
supercells will be possible with a threat for large hail. The
supercell threat is forecast to be the greatest from far northeast
Missouri into northwestern Illinois and southeastern Iowa, where the
models suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be
maximized. Although large hail will likely be the greatest threat,
wind damage will also be possible especially if a cluster can
organize during the early evening.
..Broyles.. 09/16/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
north-central U.S. on Monday. At the surface on Monday afternoon, an
axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to be from the Ohio
Valley northwestward into eastern parts of the northern Plains.
Although pockets of moderate instability may develop along this
corridor, the quality of low-level moisture remains questionable due
to a substantial spread in the model solutions. Thunderstorms could
develop during the late afternoon along and to the east of the
instability axis, but subsidence due to the ridge should keep
convective coverage isolated.
On Tuesday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to build slowly
northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A corridor of
instability is forecast to develop from near the ridge eastward into
the western Great Lakes. Although isolated thunderstorms could form
along and to the east of the instability axis, subsidence associated
with the ridge should limit convective coverage. This should be
problematic for a substantial severe threat.
...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
On Wednesday and Thursday, the models move an upper-level ridge
across the north-central states as an upper-level trough moves from
the north-central states into the Northeast. Strong thunderstorms
could develop ahead of the trough on Wednesday afternoon in the
Great Lakes, and on Thursday afternoon in parts of New England. At
this time, confidence in moisture return and the timing of the
system is too low to consider a threat area.
On Friday, the models move an upper-level trough into the central
and northern High Plains. Due to an upper-level ridge in the
southern and central U.S., moisture return ahead of the trough
should be weak. For this reason, a substantial severe threat is not
expected on Friday afternoon and evening.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level shortwave trough currently over Nevada is forecast to
move east-northeastward toward the central/northern Plains today.
Meanwhile, another upper-level shortwave trough will move onto the
Pacific Northwest coast as an upper low deepens offshore. At the
surface, a lee trough will deepen over the High Plains throughout
the day. Overall, the overlap of strong winds and low RH with dry
fuels appears minimal across the CONUS, limiting the fire-weather
concerns today.
..Jirak.. 09/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low is forecast to deepen off the Pacific Coast on
Saturday, resulting in enhanced southwesterly flow aloft over the
Southwest. As a result at the surface, low pressure will deepen
over the central Great Basin. Although dry and windy conditions are
likely across portions of southern Nevada, northern Arizona, and
northern New Mexico on Saturday, relatively moist fuels across the
region should limit fire-weather concerns.
..Jirak.. 09/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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