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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.09.22 15:13z 252 Lines 8835 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1797_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<PI8LAP<K5DAT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220923/1230Z 1797@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 23 09:53:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 23 09:53:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Sep 23 09:53:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 23 09:53:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN TN...MO BOOTHEEL...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and
evening from parts of Arkansas into adjacent portions of the
Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee, and northwest Mississippi.
Isolated damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary threat.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to gradually amplify across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Saturday. A weak surface low/trough
is forecast to move across parts of the Upper Great Lakes and
Midwest. Some low-level moisture return is expected from the
ArkLaTex into the mid-MS Valley, as a surface ridge weakens and
shifts eastward across the Southeast.
...Arkansas and vicinity...
While guidance generally agrees on an increase in low-level moisture
across AR and vicinity on Saturday, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the magnitude of moistening and destabilization, and the
potential for organized convection. In general, weak to moderate
buoyancy may develop by afternoon, as dewpoints increase into the
60s F amid pockets of strong diurnal heating. Large-scale ascent is
expected to remain rather nebulous for much of the day, but at least
isolated thunderstorm development appears possible by late afternoon
near a weak surface trough/confluence zone across central/northern
AR. Moderate effective shear along the southern periphery of
stronger midlevel flow will support some potential for organized
storms, if deep convection can be sustained.
Relatively strong heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates
could support a threat of isolated damaging wind gusts with the
strongest storms. Some hail cannot be ruled out, depending on the
extent of destabilization that can occur. The Marginal Risk has been
adjusted to where the greatest relative coverage of storms is
expected within a modestly favorable environment during the
afternoon/evening. Some increase in elevated storm coverage is
possible within a weak warm-advection regime late Saturday night, to
the north and east of the Marginal Risk area, but severe potential
associated with any late-night storms is too uncertain to extend
probabilities northeastward at this time.
..Dean.. 09/23/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 23, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio
Valley and vicinity on Sunday, though the severe potential remains
uncertain at this time.
...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong upper-level trough is expected to continue
amplifying on Sunday across the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded
shortwaves move through the mean trough position. As this occurs, a
surface low is forecast to gradually deepen in the vicinity of the
lower Great Lakes, as a cold front moves through parts of the Great
Plains, Midwest, and eventually the Ohio Valley.
...Ohio Valley and vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible through the day on Sunday
across parts of the OH Valley, as a prominent shortwave moves
through the base of the longwave trough, and modest low-level
moistening occurs in advance of the primary cold front. Convection
may be rather low-topped within a relatively low-buoyancy
environment, but cool temperatures aloft and sufficient effective
shear could support a few organized storms posing some threat of
hail and strong wind gusts. Severe probabilities may eventually be
needed, if confidence in sufficient destabilization increases during
subsequent outlook cycles.
...Parts of the Southeast...
Depending on the impact of early-day convection and extent of
low-level moistening, a risk for strong storms may evolve across
parts of the Southeast, as moderate northwesterly midlevel flow
overspreads the region in association with the deepening trough.
However, given the potential for stronger large-scale ascent to be
displaced to the north, storm coverage and severe potential are
quite uncertain at this time.
...Southern New England...
Gradual low-level moistening is expected across parts of southern
New England through the day, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to
lower 60s F possibly spreading inland by late afternoon into the
evening. This could support increasing thunderstorm potential,
especially during the latter half of the forecast period, as a
shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Deep-layer shear
will be sufficient to support organized convection, and severe
probabilities may eventually be needed in subsequent outlooks if
confidence in sufficient inland destabilization increases with time.
..Dean.. 09/23/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 23, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears limited over most of the CONUS
next week, as dry and stable conditions persist in the wake of a
cold frontal passage across the central/eastern states. Any notable
threat during the extended-range period will likely be dependent on
the track and intensity of a tropical cyclone which is forecast to
develop across the Caribbean this weekend and potentially approach
the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Please see NHC advisories and
forecasts for more information on this system.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue eastward through the northern
Plains into parts of the upper Midwest today. Farther west, ridging
aloft will begin to amplify along the western coast. At the surface,
a cold front will move out onto the northern and central Plains.
High pressure will increase within the intermountain West.
Localized elevated conditions are possible from central Montana into
northeastern Colorado as downslope winds increase to around 20 mph.
Some areas may experience RH as low as 15-20%. Given recent
precipitation, significant fire potential will be low.
..Wendt.. 09/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will continue eastward through the upper
Great Lakes on Saturday. With some amplification of the western
upper ridge expected, a stronger belt of mid-level winds will be
maintained across the northern Rockies into the Midwest. The surface
cold front will move into the southern Plains and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley regions.
Areas of dry and windy conditions can be expected again within the
central High Plains with some extension into the central Plains
possible. Downslope winds in southeast Wyoming could lower RH to
15-20% with winds 15-20 mph. Similar conditions could extend into
parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. With some of these areas receiving
recent rainfall, elevated conditions should remain localized.
..Wendt.. 09/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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