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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.09.22 00:36z 147 Lines 4515 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1821_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 220924/0031Z 1821@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 23 16:26:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 23 16:26:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Sep 23 16:26:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 23 16:26:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 23, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Florida...
Scattered thunderstorm potential will maximize this afternoon across
the central Peninsula in areas near/just south of the
southward-sagging front. While a few stronger storms with gusty
winds could materialize as low-level lapse rates steepen, relatively
warm mid-level temperatures (-2C at 500mb per 12z observed Tampa Bay
sounding) should inhibit updraft intensity, with severe-caliber
storms not currently expected.
...Upper Midwest...
An eastward-progressive shortwave trough will cross the northern
Plains toward the Upper Midwest this evening. Despite cool
temperatures aloft as well as strong deep-layer shear, instability
will be quite weak with only meager low-level moisture return. Even
so, elevated instability of a few hundred J/kg will support
convection from the far eastern Dakotas across Minnesota/Iowa. Some
very small hail cannot be ruled out.
..Guyer/Gleason.. 09/23/2022
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SPC Sep 23, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Within the primary branch of the westerlies, a midlevel shortwave
trough will move east-southeastward from the northern Plains to the
Upper Midwest by tonight. Low-level moisture return remains quite
limited across the Plains in advance of an associated lee trough, as
a result of a prior frontal intrusion to the Gulf coast. Very weak
buoyancy within a midlevel moisture plume across KS/NE, in
combination with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates from NE into
the eastern Dakotas, could be sufficient for isolated/elevated
thunderstorms in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough.
Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms are expected along the primary
baroclinic zone across central FL, and within the lingering
monsoonal moisture plume with daytime heating over the higher
terrain in AZ/NM this afternoon.
..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/23/2022
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The current forecast is on track. See discussion below for more
details.
..Thornton/Weinman.. 09/23/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue eastward through the northern
Plains into parts of the upper Midwest today. Farther west, ridging
aloft will begin to amplify along the western coast. At the surface,
a cold front will move out onto the northern and central Plains.
High pressure will increase within the intermountain West.
Localized elevated conditions are possible from central Montana into
northeastern Colorado as downslope winds increase to around 20 mph.
Some areas may experience RH as low as 15-20%. Given recent
precipitation, significant fire potential will be low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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