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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.09.22 12:56z 444 Lines 14510 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2185_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 220928/1230Z 2185@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Tornado Watch 546
WW 546 TORNADO FL CW 280855Z - 282100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and South Florida
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 455 AM
until 500 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes likely
SUMMARY...As Hurricane Ian continues to approach the west coast of
Florida, a strong eastern-peripheral wind field and a very moist air
mass will support the potential for supercells and a related tornado
risk. This tornado potential will initially be focused across the
southern Peninsula early today, but is likely to further increase
and spread northward into the central Florida Peninsula by late
morning and afternoon.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles southwest of Miami FL to 15
miles east northeast of Orlando FL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 15030.
...Guyer
Read more
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SPC Tornado Watch 546 Status Reports
WW 0546 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0546 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC Tornado Watch 545 Status Reports
WW 0545 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 545
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW EYW
TO 20 SSW EYW TO 30 N EYW TO 40 SSW APF TO 35 WSW APF TO 80 WSW
FMY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839
..GLEASON..09/28/22
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 545
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-015-021-027-043-051-055-061-071-085-086-087-093-099-111-
280840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER
DESOTO GLADES HENDRY
HIGHLANDS INDIAN RIVER LEE
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE
AMZ555-575-610-630-650-651-670-671-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-043-044-
052-053-054-072-073-074-656-657-676-836-856-876-280840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Sep 28 09:15:12 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 28 09:15:12 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA SPACE COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes will be possible across the Florida Peninsula
today, in association with Hurricane Ian.
...Synopsis...
Across the eastern CONUS, a broad positively tilted mid-level trough
is forecast to accelerate eastward as it slowly weakens. Enhanced
steering flow near the base of the trough should allow Hurricane Ian
to move inland over the Florida Peninsula later today. Meanwhile, an
upper low is forecast to slowly weaken across the Pacific Northwest
as it impinges upon the western edge of a quasi stationary ridge
over the central CONUS.
At the surface, a remnant front along the southeastern coast will
gradually become more ill-defined as Ian approaches, while strong
high pressure will remain in place over the Great Lakes.
...Florida...
As Major Hurricane Ian approaches the Florida Gulf coast this
afternoon/evening (see NHC for latest track info), strong easterly
flow will support increasing shear and deep tropical moisture across
the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints of
75-80 F observed near Miami and the southeastern coast should
gradually shift northward as southeasterly flow strengthens across
the eastern hemisphere of the low-level circulation. Hi-res model
soundings and plan views show continued enlargement of low-level
hodographs (ESRH 300-500 m2/s2) ahead of developing spiral bands
containing semi-discrete convection and numerous embedded
mesocyclones. While the large central dense overcast will likely
limit surface heating, drier air wrapping into the southwestern
portion of the circulation may support scattered cloud breaks
between bands to the east, with locally greater
heating/destabilization. Otherwise, the strongest updrafts should
remain tied to the inland advection of higher theta-e air (70-80 F
surface dewpoints) northeast of the center across the eastern
peninsula.
HREF guidance continues to indicate the most favorable zone for
tornadoes should gradually shift north toward the Space Coast early
this morning. The aforementioned quasi-stationary front across the
northern Peninsula may also serve as a focus for supercells and
tornadoes given the favorable orientation of the shoreward spiral
bands and 20-30 kt southeasterlies orthogonal to the boundary. 10%
tornado probabilities have been added to account for locally greater
tornado potential along the stalled front where further low-level
shear enhancement is possible.
..Lyons/Darrow/Wendt.. 09/28/2022
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SPC Sep 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of east-central
and northeast Florida Thursday morning and afternoon, in association
with Tropical Cyclone Ian.
...Florida...
Hurricane Ian is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday
morning and move across the central/northeast FL Peninsula during
the day, before moving offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast by
Thursday evening (see NHC advisories and forecasts for more
information regarding Ian). Based on the latest forecast track, the
highest tornado probabilities have been confined to an area from
near the Space Coast northward to south of Jacksonville, along/south
of the persistent baroclinic zone across north FL, and north of the
midlevel dry slot that is forecast to wrap into Ian's circulation. A
notable convective band is expected to persist through the morning
and potentially into early afternoon in this corridor, with
low-level shear/SRH likely remaining favorable for embedded rotating
cells and a couple brief tornadoes. By late afternoon into the
evening, the threat should begin to diminish across the peninsula as
Ian moves offshore.
...Northern Rockies...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning and into the northern
Rockies during the afternoon/evening. Cold temperatures aloft and
steep midlevel lapse rates will support thunderstorm development
from central ID into western/central MT, western WY, and northern
UT. Limited low-level moisture should generally limit buoyancy, but
isolated gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the
strongest storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
..Dean.. 09/28/2022
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SPC Sep 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
COASTAL SC/NC...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two will be possible Friday into Friday night across
the coastal Carolinas, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian.
...Coastal Carolinas...
Tropical Cyclone Ian is currently forecast to turn
north-northwestward on Friday and potentially make a second landfall
near the GA/SC border as a tropical storm (see NHC advisories and
forecasts for more information regarding Ian). As this occurs, the
stationary front offshore of the Carolinas is forecast to gradually
move northward as a warm front, with modified tropical moisture and
weak surface-based buoyancy spreading into near-coastal areas.
Low-level shear/SRH near and to the warm side of the front may
remain sufficient to support embedded rotating cells and potentially
a tornado or two within convective bands that are expected to
develop/persist within Ian's northeast quadrant. While some
weakening of low-level shear/SRH is expected after Ian moves inland,
some threat could spread as far north as eastern NC by Friday night
into early Saturday morning.
..Dean.. 09/28/2022
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SPC Sep 28, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On D4/Saturday, Ian is forecast to weaken into a post-tropical low
as it moves into the southern Appalachian region (see NHC advisories
and forecasts for more information regarding Ian). Low/midlevel flow
to the east of Ian's decaying circulation may remain sufficiently
strong to support isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief
tornado from eastern NC into the Tidewater region.
For the rest of the extended range, the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms appears low. In the wake of Ian, northerly low-level
flow across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will limit moisture
return through early/middle next week, resulting in generally dry
and stable conditions for most areas east of the Rockies.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GULF COAST
VICINITY...
...Synopsis...
The broad upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the
Plains, today. In the Northwest, an upper-level trough will move
into Washington and Oregon. At the surface, a stout surface high
will move into the upper Midwest. A cold front will be draped across
the northern Gulf into north Florida. Hurricane Ian will continue
into central Florida.
...Central Gulf Coast...
The combination of the strong surface high to the north and the
strong pressure gradient around Hurricane Ian will drive moderately
strong northerly winds across much of the Southeast. With these
areas remaining dry, fuels are receptive to fire spread. RH below
30% should occur over much of the region, particularly areas that
are not impacted by high level outflow clouds from Ian. There is a
corridor along/near the Gulf Coast that could see RH as low as 20%.
This area is most likely to see critical fire weather as sustained
winds near 15-20 mph with higher gusts probable.
...Southeast Oregon into northwest Nevada...
The approach of the upper-level trough will promote a surface trough
in the Columbia basin and drive moderate downslope winds of 15-20
mph. RH of 15-20% is expected. Critical conditions are possible, but
will be localized and brief.
...Central/northern Plains...
As a lee trough develops in the Canadian Rockies, southerly winds
may increase to 15-25 mph in parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska.
Fuels have become marginally drier after recent rains. However, fire
weather concerns are expected to be mitigated by cooler temperatures
and upper-level cloud cover. The overlap of low RH and the stronger
winds is not expected to be widespread. Locally elevated to near
critical conditions are possible in central Wyoming. However, fuels
are generally marginal and duration of these conditions will be
short-lived.
..Wendt.. 09/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough across the Northwest will continue eastward
into the northern Rockies. A surface trough will develop in central
Montana into the central High Plains in response to this feature.
The upper Midwest surface high will shift into the Northeast. Along
the Gulf Coast, the surface winds will again be enhanced by the
surface high to the north and the strong surface pressure gradient
associated with Hurricane Ian to the southeast.
...Alabama/Florida Panhandle/southwest Georgia...
Lingering 15-20 mph winds are still possible Thursday afternoon. RH
below 30% still appears probable with some values perhaps as low as
20%. Cloud cover associated with Ian becomes more likely with
eastward extent. Elevated fire weather will be most likely where
skies remain clear.
...Central Plains...
The surface pressure gradient will again favor enhanced southerly
winds in parts of Kansas into South Dakota. Forecast soundings
indicate greater potential for cloud cover than on Wednesday.
Guidance is generally too moist for highlights and even the
typically dry models depict only marginally reduced RH during the
afternoon.
..Wendt.. 09/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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