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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.09.22 12:35z 329 Lines 12075 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2264_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-SEP22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 220929/1231Z 2264@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 29 07:54:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 29 07:54:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Sep 29 07:54:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 29 07:54:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Sep 29, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND NORTHERN UTAH...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDERLINE
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado will remain possible across parts of coastal
northeast Florida this morning, in association with Tropical Cyclone
Ian. The tornado risk will quickly diminish after noon as Ian moves
offshore. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible across
portions of northern Utah this afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
Across the CONUS, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain centered
over the Plains states today as an upper low gradually weakens and
shifts eastward over the Northern Rockies. Under the influence of
weak troughing over the Northeast, TC Ian will gradually move
northeastward across eastern Florida into the western Atlantic by
early afternoon. Please see the latest NHC advisory for up to date
track and intensity info.
At the surface, a cold front will move through the northern Rockies
while strong high pressure remains in place across the eastern Great
Lakes. Dry offshore flow across much of the Southeast and Atlantic
coast will keep conditions stable behind the remnant front stalled
along the coast. Inland moisture return may develop late tonight
across the eastern Carolinas, though this remains tied to the speed
and track of Ian.
...Far northeastern Florida...
As Ian begins to accelerate offshore this morning, surface winds
will gradually veer to southwesterly and westerly with time. Dry
continental air across the lower Southeast will quickly move down
the Peninsula replacing the deep tropical airmass with more stable
conditions. A narrow sliver along the immediate northeastern/eastern
coast may still remain buoyant for a few hours after 12z this
morning. Large but gradually shrinking hodographs near the center of
Ian may support low-topped supercells capable of a brief tornado
before Ian's center moves offshore by noon.
...Coastal Carolinas...
As Ian emerges from Florida over the western Atlantic, some
redevelopment of convection along the outermost spiral bands will be
possible late tonight into early Friday. Strong wind fields will
support numerous embedded mesocyclones within these bands as they
re-develop offshore. It remains unclear if any bands will be able to
advance inland across far eastern North/South Carolina prior to 12z
Friday given the very dry and cool airmass inland behind the front.
While a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast,
confidence in richer boundary-layer moisture and subsequent
destabilization being advected inland by 12z Friday remains too low
to add tornado probabilities.
...Northern Utah...
Near the base of the slowly weakening upper low across portions of
northern Utah, cooling aloft and strong surface heating ahead of the
cold front should support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Advection of monsoon moisture from the southwest should
allow weak destabilization (500 J/kg of MLCAPE) to develop within
the well-mixed airmass through the diurnal cycle. While flow aloft
and resulting deep-level shear will be weak (less than 25 kt),
relatively steep low and mid-level lapse rates may support a few
stronger downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. Spatial
coverage of the severe risk is somewhat uncertain given weaker shear
and buoyancy, but hi-res guidance does show some potential for a
couple multi-cell clusters to develop in the vicinity of SLC. 5%
wind probabilities have been added to account for the isolated risk
of severe wind gusts with any stronger clusters that are able to
become established.
..Lyons/Darrow.. 09/29/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 29, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN SC/NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes may be possible Friday into Friday night
across the coastal Carolinas and possibly southeast Virginia, in
association with Tropical Cyclone Ian.
...Carolinas into southeast VA...
Ian is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm over the Florida
Peninsula by Thursday morning, and then move off of the Atlantic
Coast (see NHC advisories and forecasts for more information
regarding Ian). Ian is forecast to move northward and then
north-northwestward offshore, potentially making another landfall
somewhere on the SC coast by Friday afternoon/evening.
Some tornado potential may develop in association with Ian across
coastal regions of SC/NC on Friday, and perhaps as far north as
southeast VA by late Friday night, though the evolution of several
important factors remains quite uncertain at this time. A baroclinic
zone initially offshore of the Carolinas is forecast to move
northward as a warm front, with modified tropical moisture spreading
into coastal regions through the period. Ian's track, intensity, and
timing will determine the extent to which richer low-level moisture
spreads inland, and also the duration and areal extent of favorable
overlap between appreciable destabilization and strong low-level
shear/SRH. A substantial midlevel dry slot is forecast to wrap
around the southern and eastern periphery of the cyclone, as Ian
interacts with a mid-latitude upper-level trough. While the dry slot
could initially support semi-discrete cellular development along its
leading edge, it may also tend to suppress deep convection across
the effective warm sector with time. Given the complex scenario and
attendant uncertainties, a Marginal Risk was maintained for this
outlook, but higher tornado probabilities may eventually be needed,
depending on Ian's evolution leading up to its potential Friday
landfall.
...UT/WY/northwest CO...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Friday afternoon/evening
across parts UT/WY and northwest CO, as relatively steep midlevel
lapse rates overspread the region in association with a persistent
upper-level low centered near eastern ID. Modest midlevel flow may
support some weak storm organization, and locally gusty winds and
small hail will be possible, though weak buoyancy should generally
limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat.
..Dean.. 09/29/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 29, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat appears to be relatively low on
Saturday.
...Coastal Mid Atlantic region...
Tropical Cyclone Ian is forecast to weaken into a post-tropical low
pressure system as it moves into the southern Appalachians on
Saturday (see NHC advisories and forecasts for more information
regarding Ian). While a warm front may advance into coastal areas of
the Mid Atlantic, weakening low-level flow/shear and limited
instability are currently expected to limit the severe-thunderstorm
threat. If Ian intensifies more than currently expected prior to
expected landfall across SC on D2/Friday, then some threat for a
brief tornado and/or isolated damaging wind could linger into
Saturday, but confidence is too low to include probabilities for
this scenario at this time.
...Central/northern Rockies/High Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are again expected across parts of
the central and northern Rockies, and perhaps spreading into the
High Plains, as a nearly stationary upper low persists across the
region. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow along the southern periphery
of the upper low may support a few weakly organized storms, but
limited instability is expected to limit the severe-thunderstorm
risk.
..Dean.. 09/29/2022
Read more
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SPC Sep 29, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to generally remain low
through the extended range period. A series of frontal passages and
associated surface ridging will limit the northward advance of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in generally dry and
stable conditions for most areas east of the Rockies into late next
week.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
Surface pressure gradients between Hurricane Ian and the surface
high near the Great Lakes will continue on Thursday, allowing
lingering areas of elevated fire weather to be possible across the
far western Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama.
...Alabama/Florida Panhandle...
Areas of elevated fire weather are possible across the far western
Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama on Thursday where minimum
humidity around 30 percent will coincide with northeasterly winds
sustained at 15-20 mph. Fuels along the Florida Panhandle into
Alabama continue to be critically dry above the 95 percentile.
Further east along the Florida Panhandle, low clouds may increase in
the afternoon as moisture moves in from the east due to Hurricane
Ian's continued track off the East Coast. This may keep afternoon
relative humidity above elevated thresholds with lighter surface
winds amid more shallow mixing.
..Thornton.. 09/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper level trough will deepen across the northern Rockies with
surface low pressure deepening across the Central Plains on Friday.
...South Central High Plains...
As the surface low deepens across the Central Plains, winds will
increase to around 15-20 mph amid afternoon minimum relative
humidity around 15-20% with elevated fire weather conditions
possible across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. ERCs remain in
the 80-90th percentile across this area. Winds may approach critical
thresholds in a few isolated regions as peak heating and deeper
mixing occurs. Further to the west across portions of New Mexico
southward into Texas, conditions will be dry and windy but fuels are
less receptive. As such, the best coverage of elevated fire weather
conditions Friday afternoon will be primarily across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles.
..Thornton.. 09/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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