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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.10.22 12:37z 273 Lines 9065 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2420_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 221001/1230Z 2420@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 1 07:28:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 1 07:28:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Oct 1 07:28:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 1 07:28:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms
across parts of the Four Corners today. The severe threat should
remain limited across the rest of the Continental U.S.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will meander across the Intermountain West today as
ridging aloft persists across the central/southern Plains. Multiple
mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper low, promoting
locally stronger deep-layer ascent to foster thunderstorm
development. The latest guidance consensus suggests that one
embedded impulse will impinge on the High Plains, supporting
scattered thunderstorms producing small hail and gusty winds. A
second impulse may briefly support isolated but robust thunderstorm
development across the Four Corners region, and a couple of severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, the remnants of Ian
will drift northward and open up as a mid-level trough while
traversing the Eastern Seaboard through the period. Buoyancy should
remain scant within the warm-air advection zone on the eastern
fringes of Ian's remnants, limiting the severe threat, though
lightning flashes are still possible.
...Portions of the Four Corners Region...
Current night time RGB composite satellite data shows clouds
departing the Four Corners area, with guidance consensus supporting
a continued clearing trend into the early afternoon hours. Adequate
surface heating will support temperatures rising into the 70s F,
with dewpoints reaching the upper 40s F. With continued
boundary-layer mixing, surface-500 mb lapse rates should steepen to
about 8 C/km, contributing to 700-1200 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon peak
heating. Weak southerly low-level winds overspread by 30+ kt
westerly mid-level flow should contribute to modestly elongated,
straight hodographs, supportive of multicells and perhaps transient
supercell structures. Given the aforementioned lapse rates, a couple
instances of severe wind/hail are possible, warranting the
introduction of Category 1/Marginal probabilities.
..Squitieri/Thornton.. 10/01/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated storms may occur from Wyoming toward the Black Hills,
resulting in gusty winds and small hail. The overall severe risk
appears low.
...Synopsis...
The weather pattern on Sunday will feature an upper low over the
West, centered over MT/WY and providing cool midlevel temperatures
to much of Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, a lingering
midlevel trough will drift toward the East Coast, while an upper
high remains over the southern Plains.
At the surface, a rather stable air mass with lack of CAPE will
exist over most of the central and eastern states with high pressure
extending from the Great Lakes into the MS Valley and southern
Plains.
Instability favorable for thunderstorms will stretch from AZ into
the Dakotas, within the southwesterly flow regime south of the MT
upper low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
throughout much of the day across this region due to heating and
cool temperatures aloft. A weak surface trough developing over
eastern WY into western SD/NE will likely help focus diurnal
activity. Deep-layer shear will exceed 40 kt with straight
hodographs, and MUCAPE will likely reach 500 J/kg. Cold temperatures
aloft may yield small hail, but limited moisture may tend to yield
non-severe hail.
..Jewell.. 10/01/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 1, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.
...Synopsis...
High pressure will remain over much of the Midwest and Northeast,
with surface ridge extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile,
another high will be centered over the Rockies as a weak upper low
drifts east across MT and WY. Ahead of this low, a surface trough
will develop during the day from SD across NE and into CO, where
strong heating will occur coincident with a pocket of 45-50 F
dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft and lack of cap will lead to
scattered afternoon and evening storms from the WY/CO border into
western NE, but weak shear and instability suggest only general
thunderstorm activity.
..Jewell.. 10/01/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 1, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Tue/D4, a weak shortwave trough will affect the northern Plains,
and will move southeastward toward the lower MO Valley into Wed/D5.
Given a large area of high pressure over the eastern CONUS, moisture
and instability will be quite limited along the associated cold
front, with minimal thunderstorm activity across the Plains.
As the aforementioned wave quickly shifts east toward the Mid
Atlantic, a larger-scale upper trough will amplify over the Great
Lakes and Northeast, with a substantial cold front moving south
across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley on Thu/D6. A surface
low will likely deepen over parts of southern Ontario and Quebec in
the Thu/D6 to Fri/D7 time frame, but very little thunderstorm
activity is expected due to the antecedent dry air mass and lack of
substantial moisture return. The cool, dry air mass is forecast to
spread across most of the CONUS by Sat/D8, with little potential for
severe weather through the period.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A lee trough across the Central Plains will continue the dry and
breezy conditions on Saturday. Corridors of elevated fire-weather
conditions will be possible, mainly across western Kansas where
relative humidity will drop to around 15-20 percent with sustained
winds at 15-20 mph. The coverage and period of elevated fire-weather
conditions. Due to this threat being brief and isolated, no critical
areas are included at this time. In this area, fuels remain in the
80th to 90th percentile.
..Thornton.. 10/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper level low across the northern Rockies will meander
northeastward on Sunday. Weak lee troughing will support increasing
southerly flow across the Plains states. Dry and windy conditions
will lead to modest wildfire spread potential across portions of
north central Kansas and south central Nebraska.
...North Central Kansas into South Central Nebraska...
Lee troughing will support sustained surface winds around 15-20 mph
amid 15-20 percent relative humidity across central Kansas into
south central Nebraska. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be
possible in these regions. A few stations may briefly see critical
conditions, with forecast soundings showing relative humidity
dropping at or below 15 percent, with gusts up to 25 mph possible by
peak afternoon mixing.
..Thornton.. 10/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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