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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.10.22 12:38z 238 Lines 7137 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2598_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 221003/1230Z 2598@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 3 08:52:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 3 08:52:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Oct 3 08:52:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 3 08:52:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast for today across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually progress eastward across the
northern Rockies and overspread the northern Plains as an upper low
continues to meander over the Mid Atlantic today. Building surface
high pressure and associated large-scale subsidence should limit
thunderstorm potential across much of the central Plains and
Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Moisture
advection ahead of the northern Rockies upper trough should
encourage some thunderstorm development from late morning into the
evening hours across the northern Plains southwestward into the
central Rockies and desert Southwest. Buoyancy appears meager across
the central U.S., with mid-level flow and associated shear expected
to gradually weaken with the progression of the upper trough. While
a couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind gusts and hail are
possible from the northern Plains to the Southwest, any severe
threat that manages to materialize should be very isolated at best,
with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 10/03/2022
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SPC Oct 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper low will continue slowly east across the northern
Plains, with cooling aloft into the upper MS Valley by Wednesday
morning. Modest midlevel southwesterlies around 30 kt will be
present from NE into IA, with a weak surface trough. Given limited
low-level moisture near the wind shift across KS/NE/IA, instability
does not appear to favor any type of severe thunderstorms. However,
isolated showers and storms will be possible throughout the period
as midlevel RH will be high.
Elsewhere, storms will be most likely during the afternoon across AZ
and NM, beneath weak flow aloft, and aided by residual cool midlevel
temperatures. Midlevel subsidence along with lack of shear suggest
little if any severe risk.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2022
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SPC Oct 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move southeastward across Manitoba
and western Ontario, reaching the northern Plains and upper Great
Lakes by Thursday morning. Preceding this amplification will be a
weaker wave which will drift eastward across the upper MS Valley,
eventually becoming absorbed by the northern trough.
High pressure will remain centered over the OH Valley, with another
high over the Rockies. The result will be relatively cool and/or
stable air over the majority of the CONUS on Wednesday. A pocket of
weak instability may develop due to cold temperatures aloft from IA
into southern MN and western WI, with only general thunder expected.
Elsewhere, weak northerly flow aloft will exist over AZ, where
isolated daytime thunderstorms will be possible over the higher
terrain in a weakly unstable environment.
..Jewell.. 10/03/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 3, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Multiple waves within a larger-scale upper trough will affect much
of the Great Lakes and Northeast through Mon/D8 as a strong area of
high pressure surges south across the Plains. This will result in
relatively cool and stable conditions east of the Rockies, while a
weak upper ridge affects much of the West. Although low pressure
will sweep east across the Great Lakes and Northeast Thu/D4 through
Fri/D5, MUCAPE
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the northern Plains today,
encouraging the persistence of surface lee troughing and associated
dry southerly flow. Across the central Plains, a narrow corridor
exists where Elevated dry and windy conditions will overspread
receptive fuels in the absence of rainfall. Elevated highlights have
been maintained in this corridor, mainly for early afternoon into
early evening.
..Squitieri.. 10/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward across the
northern Plains and approach the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow/Tuesday. With precipitation remaining absent for the
central and southern Plains, fuels will continue to cure. At the
moment, guidance consensus suggests that Elevated surface winds will
not be as widespread as Day 1, likely due to the upper trough
departing the area which should weaken surface lee troughing. In
addition, a surface cold front will sweep across the central Plains,
potentially limiting the duration of more favorable fire weather
conditions, precluding the addition of Elevated highlights this
outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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