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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.10.22 16:04z 258 Lines 8376 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2496_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 221002/1231Z 2496@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 2 07:50:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 2 07:50:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Oct 2 07:50:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 2 07:50:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and wind-producing storms may occur from
eastern Utah northeast into the northern High Plains during the
afternoon into early evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will gradually drift from the northern Rockies toward
the northern High Plains while an upper ridge persists across the
Midwest and a mid-level trough meanders along the Eastern Seaboard
today. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper
Mississippi Valley into New England and expand southward through the
day, promoting large-scale subsidence and suppressing organized
thunderstorm potential. However, adequate deep-layer ascent and
buoyancy should accompany the western trough across the Interior
West towards the High Plains, with isolated to scattered strong
thunderstorms expected through the day, and a few severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out by afternoon.
...Four Corners Region to the Northern High Plains...
A mid-level dry slot will encourage a corridor of clearing clouds
and associated diurnal heating from portions of eastern UT to the
northern High Plains by afternoon, encouraging surface temperatures
to rise into the 70s F amid upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints. 7+
C/km low to mid-level lapse rates should develop atop the
aforementioned surface airmass given boundary-layer mixing, with
MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. Though not overly strong,
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear may materialize and overlap the
narrow corridor of instability as a belt of 40 kt 500 mb flow pivots
around the upper low and overspreads the Intermountain West. Point
forecast soundings depict modestly curved low-level hodographs, with
the hodograph above 3 km elongating. As such, a mix of multicells
and short linear segments will be the main modes of convection,
though a few transient supercells are possible, mainly during the
afternoon. The steep lapse rates suggest that a couple of the
stronger cellular storms may briefly produce severe hail while
clustering storms/line segments may support a couple of severe
gusts, particularly wherever cold pool mergers/upscale growth can
occur.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 10/02/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday. A few strong
storms may occur across the Front Range, Black Hills, and western
Nebraska.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper trough providing cooling aloft will move east across
the northern Plains on Monday, with a surface trough from SD into
CO/KS during the afternoon. High pressure will remain entrenched
across the MS Valley and Great Lakes, resulting in poor low-level
moisture return into the Plains. Dewpoints in the 40s and lower 50s
will contribute to MLCAPE around 750 J/kg from SD into NE along the
wind shift, beneath relatively weak midlevel southwesterlies below
30 kt. Scattered convection is likely to form off the Front Range,
producing small hail and locally gusty winds. Given the relatively
dry air mass and weak low-level winds, it appears convection will be
sub severe.
Elsewhere, additional daytime storms will exist over the Four
Corners states, where daytime heating will interact with existing
midlevel moisture. Sporadic strong gusts may occur, and storms will
diminish after sunset.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 2, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A slow-moving shortwave trough will continue east across the
northern Plains and into the upper MS Valley by Wed morning,
providing cooling aloft and a modest increase in midlevel flow.
Meanwhile, a larger upper trough will develop south across the
Canadian Prairies, with low pressure developing over parts of
Manitoba and Ontario late.
High pressure will remain over the OH Valley, with surface ridge
roughly from New England to the ArkLaTex. Given the presence of this
drier air, low-level moisture and instability is forecast to be
minimal ahead of the cold front over the northern Plains. Here, a
few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is possible from SD into IA from late
afternoon through early evening, supporting sporadic non-severe
convection across the area.
..Jewell.. 10/02/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For the Wed/D4 to Sun/D8 period, very little thunderstorm activity
is forecast across the CONUS, owing to an amplifying upper trough
across the Great Lakes and Northeast. This pattern will result in
reinforcing areas of high pressure and offshore flow along the Gulf
and East Coasts, preventing destabilization over land. As such,
severe weather is not forecast.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper low will impinge on the northern High Plains while upper
ridging remains in place across the Plains States today. Surface lee
troughing will encourage dry southerly flow across the Plains with
the approaching of the upper low. Latest guidance consensus depicts
Elevated overlapping sustained surface winds and RH for at least a
few hours this afternoon across the central Plains. Elevated
highlights have been introduced where fuels are at least modestly
receptive to fire spread and are devoid of recent appreciable
rainfall accumulations.
..Squitieri.. 10/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will gradually overspread the Plains states as a
second mid-level trough meanders along the East Coast
tomorrow/Monday. Surface lee troughing should persist across the
Plains, with relatively dry and windy conditions developing during
the afternoon in tandem with boundary-layer mixing. Current guidance
consensus suggests that appreciable rainfall accumulations should
remain over the High Plains into the evening hours. As such,
Elevated equivalent overlapping sustained surface winds/RH atop dry
fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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