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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.19 16:22z 143 Lines 7304 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 01
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140
PM CST Mon Jan 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND WEST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may impact portions of the upper
Ohio Valley this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow is beginning to amplify inland
of the Pacific coast, downstream of a broad and deep lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone migrating across the mid-latitude eastern
Pacific. Models indicate that this cyclone may begin to weaken
while turning northeastward through the eastern Pacific during
this period, as downstream ridging continues to build across the
Intermountain West, Canadian/U.S. Rockies and High Plains.
Within large-scale troughing to the east of the ridge, a vigorous
short wave impulse appears likely to continue digging across and
southeast of the Upper Midwest, through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley,
toward the New England and Mid Atlantic coast by early Wednesday.
Most guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by the
development of an intense cyclonic jet (including 100-120+ kt at 500
mb) on the southern periphery of this feature, while also supporting
renewed surface cyclogenesis along a surface front across southern
portions of the Great Lakes region into the New England coast by
the end of the period.
In the wake of the developing cyclone, a series of cold intrusions
across the central and eastern U.S. will overtake and cut-off
the ongoing southerly return flow off the western Gulf of Mexico.
Low-level moistening within this regime has been generally weak,
due to the lack of more substantive boundary layer modification over
the western Gulf in the wake of a prior front. And appreciable
further moistening appears unlikely in advance of the lead cold
front today through tonight.
Across much of the nation, generally stable conditions will prevail,
with low to negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.
...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... It does appear that
mid 40s to near 50F surface dew points will continue to overspread
the upper Ohio Valley through 12Z this morning, to the south of a
stalling surface front. Coupled with mid-level cooling/forcing for
ascent associated with an initial low amplitude impulse overspreading
the southern/lower Great Lakes region, this may contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support a few thunderstorms early
today.
In the wake of early day activity, model forecast soundings suggest
that daytime heating and further mid-level cooling, associated
with the primary digging impulse, will contribute to at least weak
conditional and convective instability across north central/northeast
Ohio by late this afternoon. Boundary-layer based CAPE of 250-500
J/kg probably will be sufficient to support renewed low-topped
thunderstorm development along/north of the intense mid-level jet
axis, which is expected to spread east/southeastward across the upper
Ohio Valley through early evening. Despite the rather weak CAPE,
thermodynamic profiles, including relatively steep low-level lapse
rates, may provide a favorable environment for stronger convection
to aid the downward transfer of higher momentum to the surface,
resulting in the potential for damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Bentley.. 01/08/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148
PM CST Mon Jan 07 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the
West Coast on Wednesday. No severe weather is expected across the
continental United States.
...West Coast...
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with cold air aloft will
spread inland early Wednesday contributing to weak instability.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a general area of
showers along a portion of the CA and Oregon coasts where upper
40s to around 50F dewpoints will result in slightly greater CAPE.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 01/08/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CST Tue Jan 08 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A front will move through the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. Gusty winds are likely in the wake of this front from the
Great Lakes southwestward to Texas. A cool, continental airmass in
the wake of this front will keep relative humidities high enough
to avoid any fire weather concerns.
In addition, a strong low pressure system off the Pacific Coast will
bring some gusty winds to portions of coastal California and Oregon.
However, this storm will also bring precipitation and moist onshore
flow to the same areas which will alleviate any potential fire
weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 01/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CST Tue Jan 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A cool airmass will be in place across most of the
CONUS on Wednesday with precipitation falling along the West Coast
and in the Northeast. This will alleviate fire weather concerns for
most of the country. However, elevated conditions may be possible
in far southeast Georgia and far northeastern Florida. Relative
humidities are expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent range
with winds around 10 to 15 mph. While conditions are marginally
conducive for an elevated delineation, fuels are likely not receptive
to large fire spread given around 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain has
fallen across this area in the last 7 days.
Lee troughing may lead to some gusty winds in the Texas Panhandle,
but temperatures are expected to remain cool and relative humidities
above 30 percent.
..Bentley.. 01/08/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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