| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 26.04.19 07:05z 155 Lines 8468 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22876_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 04
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0OVN<DB0GOS<ON0AR<VE2PKT<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<
VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 190426/0700Z 22876@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NC TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind and
a few tornadoes are expected from North Carolina into the Middle
Atlantic Friday. Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible
over northern Utah, southeast Idaho, southwest Wyoming and northwest
Colorado. Other storms may produce a few strong wind gusts over a
portion of the Florida Peninsula.
...NC to the Middle Atlantic...
Strong 500mb jet is forecast to dig southeast across MO into the TN
Valley region early in the period before shifting into the lee of
the southern Appalachians Friday afternoon. In response, strong 12hr
500mb height falls will develop across the Middle Atlantic region
and a pronounced surface front will surge east of the higher terrain
shortly after 18z. While low-level moisture is not particularly
high across this area this morning, lower 60s surface dew points
are expected to advance north across the Delmarva into southeast PA
ahead of the wind shift. Latest model guidance suggests surface-based
buoyancy will develop by 16-17z as temperatures warm through the
upper 60s to near 70F. Additionally, strongly diffluent flow aloft
suggests favorable venting for convection within aforementioned
region of large-scale forcing for ascent.
Current thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop ahead
of the approaching short wave during the morning then convection
should intensify as forcing encourages upscale growth. Strongly
sheared profiles favor rotating storms and there is some concern
for a few tornadic supercells, especially across the Delmarva into
southeast PA where low-level flow will be more backed. Latest CAMs
support this scenario and severe probs will be nudged north a bit
to reflect this threat farther north across the Middle Atlantic.
...Central Rockies...
Strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to dig southeast
across the northern inter-mountain region during the day. As a
result, frontal forcing will be maximized during the afternoon
along a corridor from northern UT into northwest CO. Convection
is expected to readily develop ahead of the front within a steep
lapse-rate environment, though PW values are not expected to
be that high. Relatively low sub-cloud RH should contribute to
gusty downdrafts within the stronger storms. Convection may loosely
organize ahead of the front as deep-layer shear will prove conducive
for sustained updrafts.
..Darrow/Gleason.. 04/26/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TO WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible
mainly late Saturday afternoon and early evening across parts of
north Texas and southern Oklahoma to western Arkansas.
...Synopsis... A semi-amplified belt of westerlies will exist
particularly over the northern tier of the CONUS. Within this regime,
a low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress eastward over the
Upper Midwest to Lower Great Lakes, while a more substantial
upper-level trough amplifies and digs southeastward over the
northern Rockies.
...North Texas/southern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... On the
southern fringe of stronger/more amplified westerlies to the north,
a moderately strong belt of 40 kt mid-level winds will overlie
a southeastward-progressing cold front across the region. By
Saturday evening, this front should generally extend from the
Missouri/Arkansas Ozarks southwestward to the Red River vicinity
of southern Oklahoma and north Texas, although some early-day
showers/thunderstorms and lingering cloud cover could effectively
augment the front across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas.
Regardless, steady air mass modification and poleward moisture
return along with heating/mixing will contribute to a near-frontal
corridor of moderate buoyancy (1000-1750 J/kg MLCAPE) by late
afternoon. Low-level convergence will not be robust, but likely
sufficient for at least isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm
development during the late afternoon/early evening. Where storms
develop, steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy and upwards of 40 kt
effective shear would support organized storms/supercells capable
of large hail and damaging winds.
Will maintain a Marginal Risk across the region at this juncture
given some spatial uncertainties regarding the peak corridor of what
could be a regionally confined severe risk. However, a categorical
Slight Risk is plausible across parts of the region by the Day 1
time frame.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Guyer.. 04/26/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will move eastward
across the eastern CONUS today, while an upstream shortwave trough
over the Pacific Northwest develops across the northern/central
Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing will develop over parts of
the northern/central High Plains, and a broad area of high pressure
initially centered across the Plains will shift slowly eastward to
the MS Valley through the period.
...Portions of the Southwest... An increase in west-southwesterly
flow appears likely this afternoon across parts of northern AZ
into southern UT, far southwestern CO, and northwestern NM as
modestly enhanced mid-level winds become diurnally mixed to the
surface. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph are expected, with locally
stronger gusts possible across higher terrain locations. RH values
are forecast to fall into the 10-20% range across this region,
and these meteorological conditions combined with at least some
dry fuels support an elevated delineation.
..Gleason.. 04/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the central Plains
should develop eastward to the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes on
Day 2/Saturday. A separate shortwave trough is forecast to move
southeastward across the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies
through the period. At the surface, a low in the vicinity of eastern
NE should also develop eastward, with a trailing cold front shifting
southward across the southern/central Plains.
...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Strong/gusty
north-northwesterly winds appear likely behind the front Saturday
afternoon, although lowered RH values appear marginal across parts of
the central High Plains due to relatively cool temperatures. For now,
both fuel receptiveness and the potential for elevated conditions
appear too limited to include an elevated area over parts of eastern
CO and western KS.
Farther south, locally elevated conditions appear possible across
parts of NM and eastern AZ. Westerly winds may increase to around
15-20 mph behind a surface trough/dryline, but ahead of the
southward-moving cold front. RH values should also decrease to
15-20% through diurnal mixing processes. However, the duration of
these conditions Saturday afternoon appears too short to justify
introducing an elevated delineation at this time.
..Gleason.. 04/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
You would if you could but you can't so you won't.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
