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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.10.22 13:00z 275 Lines 9205 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3130_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221009/1236Z 3130@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 9 08:09:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 9 08:09:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Oct 9 08:09:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 9 08:09:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today.
...Southwest...
Scattered convection should develop today across parts of the
Southwest associated with a slow-moving upper low centered over
southern Arizona and northwestern Mexico. A few strong thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and small hail may occur from southeastern AZ
into far west TX where somewhat greater instability is forecast to
develop this afternoon. But, weak deep-layer shear will likely limit
the threat for organized severe thunderstorms.
...South/Central Florida Peninsula...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the
south/central Florida Peninsula later today, as tropical low-level
moisture gradually returns to this region. Moderate instability that
develops by peak afternoon heating may support some strong
thunderstorms through the early evening, but modest deep-layer flow
and related shear should hinder updraft organization.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 10/09/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Monday and Monday night
across the continental United States.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig south-southeastward into the High
Plains on Monday as another upper-level trough remains over the
Desert Southwest. Weak instability is forecast by Monday afternoon
from the Desert Southwest eastward into the southern and central
Plains. As surface temperatures warm in this airmass on Monday,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon. Convection will gradually move eastward across the
region, and could affect parts of west Texas from Monday evening
into the overnight. Storms could also develop in the central Plains
Monday evening as a low-level jet strengthens across the region.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible on Monday over parts of
the southern and central Florida Peninsula, where a moist airmass
will be in place. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 10/09/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 9, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected to develop on Tuesday into
Tuesday night from parts of the central Plains northeastward into
the upper Mississippi Valley.
...DISCUSSION...
A lead shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as a large-scale upper-level trough
digs southeastward quickly into the northern Plains. A cold front
will move southeastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska as low-level
moisture advects north-northeastward ahead of the front. Surface
dewpoints should reach the mid to upper 50s F from eastern Kansas
and Missouri northward into much of the upper Mississippi Valley. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of moderate
instability may develop from northern Kansas to southern Minnesota,
where model forecasts suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 1200
J/kg range. Although a cap is forecast early in the day, increasing
large-scale ascent and convergence along and ahead of the front,
should support thunderstorm development in the late afternoon.
Convective coverage is expected to increase during the evening from
the eastern portion of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and
mid to upper Mississippi Valleys. In addition to the instability,
forecast soundings from northeast Kansas into Iowa and southern
Minnesota have 0-6 km shear reaching the 30 to 40 knot range by
early evening. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat
with cells that develop in the stronger instability ahead of the
front. Hail and marginally severe winds are possible with the
stronger cells. Although an isolated severe threat could persist
into the mid evening, the threat is expected to diminish by late
evening as instability decreases across the region.
..Broyles.. 10/09/2022
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SPC Oct 9, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the western
Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will occur
ahead of a substantial upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen
during the day. Due to strong forcing associated with the
upper-level trough and cold front, a line of thunderstorms will
likely develop Wednesday afternoon. This line of storms should move
eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday
afternoon. Although a wind-damage threat will be possible along the
leading edge of this line, limited moisture return and weak
instability will be problematic for a more widespread threat. An
isolated wind-damage threat could continue into the evening as the
cold front and line of storms moves into the central Appalachians.
The cold front is forecast to move through the Northeast on
Thursday, and could reintensify by midday from parts of New York and
Pennsylvania southward into the Mid Atlantic. The wind-damage threat
could affect areas as far north as New England Thursday afternoon. A
15 percent contour could be needed in either Day 4 or Day 5, once
the details become more clear in model runs that come out over the
next day or two.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
A cool and dry airmass is forecast to be in place across much of the
continental U.S. on Friday and over the weekend. For this reason,
organized thunderstorm activity is not expected.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Very dry conditions are expected across Alabama and southern Georgia
on Sunday, but winds should be light. Therefore, the threat for
large fires should be minimal. Elsewhere, no breezy conditions are
expected to accompany dry surface conditions and dry fuels.
..Bentley.. 10/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A weak trough will move into the northern/central Plains on Monday.
This will result in weak lee troughing across the central Plains.
Some breezy conditions may develop as a result. However, there
remains considerable uncertainty whether these winds will overlap
with low relative humidity. In addition, fuels in the region are
only marginally dry. Therefore, no elevated delineation seems
warranted at this time.
Elsewhere, lee-troughing east of the Canadian Rockies will lead to a
tightening pressure gradient across the Northwest and Northern
Rockies. Some stronger winds are anticipated in the Columbia Basin,
Snake River Valley, and in northern Montana, but these winds are not
expected to overlap low relative humidity and critically dry fuels
in any locations. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain
minimal.
..Bentley.. 10/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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