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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.10.22 21:09z 312 Lines 11442 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3290_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221012/2100Z 3290@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 12 18:41:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 12 18:41:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC MD 1864
MD 1864 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN/MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 1864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
Areas affected...Western/Middle TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121839Z - 122045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging wind gusts exists this
afternoon across western and middle TN.
DISCUSSION...Recent NQA radar imagery samples the outflow emerging
from the line of storms moving into the Mid-South well, particularly
west of Memphis. Much of the activity south and west of Memphis
appears to be behind this outflow, while some scattered
thunderstorms remain in place ahead of it across northwestern TN.
The airmass downstream of this outflow in northwest TN is slowly
destabilizing amid filtered daytime heating. Modest destabilization
has already taken place across middle TN, where temperatures are
slightly lower than those over northwest TN but dewpoints are
higher.
Potential exists for storms to strength as they interact with the
eastward-progressing outflow amid modest air mass destabilization.
Westerly 0-3 km bulk shear is oriented perpendicular to the ongoing
outflow, suggesting potential for development of a more
forward-propagating/bowing line segment capable of damaging wind
gusts. Any severe potential will likely remain limited due to the
only modest destabilization downstream, but convective trends are
being monitored closely.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35258994 36128898 36648826 36858738 36478670 35338721
35088803 35068931 35258994
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SPC MD 1863
MD 1863 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121814Z - 122015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for wind damage this afternoon. A brief
tornado would be possible with stronger storms favorably interacting
with the differential heating boundary.
DISCUSSION...A persistent are of warm advection thunderstorm
activity continues this afternoon in central/southern Alabama. As
the cold front continues to approach the Mid South, this warm
advection is expected to continue. A stronger storm or two will be
possible, particularly along the southwest flank of this activity.
Effective shear of 40-50 kts should allow for some storm
organization despite modest mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg. The primary threat with this activity will be
isolated damaging winds. Surface winds right along the differential
heating boundary are backed. The threat for a brief tornado would be
conditional on a mature storm interacting favorably with the
boundary. However, this potential appears low as storm motions have
will generally be north-northeast into the cooler air.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32108796 32308777 32608711 32728661 32688542 32518492
32108482 31788529 31838702 31798771 31928794 32108796
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SPC Oct 12, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms producing a couple brief tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail are possible across parts of the
Mid-South and the Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys, mainly
this afternoon and evening.
...Mid-South to Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys...
A band of storms are ongoing across northern Arkansas and far
southeast Missouri at late morning ahead of/near an
east/southeastward-moving cold front. Modest low-level moistening
continues to occur (50s to lower 60s F surface dewpoints)
immediately ahead of this convection across the Mid-South, with
ample insolation also occurring within the warm sector. This should
lead an increase in both coverage and intensity of storms through
the afternoon. A QLCS should evolve from eastern Arkansas/northern
Mississippi into Tennessee, with additional and somewhat more
discrete development anticipated farther south/southwest toward the
ArkLaTex. Damaging winds and large hail are expected to be the most
common/probable hazards, but a couple of brief tornadoes might also
occur.
...Kentucky/Ohio...
Some clearing is noted in visible satellite imagery as of late
morning across western/middle Tennessee into Kentucky, but
uncertainties linger regarding the extent/degree of surface-based
destabilization later today. Will maintain low severe probabilities
across the region as even modest destabilization coupled with
adequate low-level hodograph curvature could support a supercell or
two capable of a brief tornado and/or locally damaging winds.
...Southeast including Alabama/southern Georgia...
Persistent warm advection in conjunction with an effective/850 mb
west-east front will likely maintain slow-eastward-progressive
scattered thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening. Diurnal
heating and some thinning of cloud cover could allow some of these
storms to become more surface based this afternoon, with locally
damaging winds a possibility aside from severe hail.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/12/2022
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SPC Oct 12, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A band of relatively low-topped thunderstorms are forecast to move
across portions of the eastern U.S. east of the Appalachians. A
stronger afternoon storm or two may produce strong/gusty winds or a
brief tornado from the Catskills vicinity southward across central
Virginia.
...Synopsis...
A seasonally strong upper low and attendant trough will be in place
across western Ontario and extend southward across much of the
central U.S. The upper trough will slowly pivot eastward toward the
Appalachians during the period, bring strong mid/upper level
southwesterly flow over the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the
surface, low pressure over Ontario and the upper Great Lakes will
pivot beneath the upper low. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will
extend from western NY/PA into the central Appalachians and
southwestward toward the central Gulf Coast vicinity. The front will
progress eastward through the period, oriented from western New
England, southward to the offshore waters of the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast before arcing westward across northern
FL and into the Gulf of Mexico. A Marginal risk of severe storms is
expected ahead of the front from parts of southern NY into eastern
VA/NC.
...Portions of NY into VA/NC...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold
front Thursday morning across western NY/PA into eastern OH, with
additional precipitation occurring in the warm advection regime from
eastern PA toward the Chesapeake/coastal VA/NC. Destabilization will
be limited by precipitation and cloud cover, especially across
NY/PA. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will aid in the
development of an organized line of low-topped convection along the
cold front. A few strong gusts may accompany this line of storms.
With southward extent into eastern VA and the Chesapeake
Bay/northeast NC vicinity, stronger destabilization is expected
where at least filtered heating amid 60s F dewpoints should result
in 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A mix of thunderstorm clusters and more
discrete cells are possible across this area. Backed low-level flow
and will contribute to enlarged, favorably curved low-level
hodographs, and a few rotating storms are possible. Isolated strong
gusts and/or a brief tornado will be possible with activity across
southern portions of the Marginal risk area.
..Leitman.. 10/12/2022
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
Minor adjustments were made with the forecast remaining largely on
track. The Critical risk area was expanded into south-central South
Dakota where low relative humidity and strong winds will likely lead
to more active fire behavior in ongoing fires. Surface observations
show sustained winds of 20+ mph and gusts up to 45 mph across
portions of the Dakotas. Expect warming and drying through the day,
as mid-level cloud cover decreases and boundary-layer
deepening/mixing allows relative humidity to decrease to around
20-25 percent. VWP profiles show 50+ mph winds above the surface,
which will likely lead to a further increase in the winds as the
boundary layer deepens through the afternoon.
The Elevated risk was extended southward into Kansas to account for
areas where relative humidity may approach 20-25 percent with
sustained winds at 15-20 mph. Further east, similar conditions will
occur, but rainfall in the last 24 hours may have made fuels less
receptive. See the previous discussion for more details.
..Thornton/Weinman.. 10/12/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022/
...Synopsis...
Very strong northwesterly flow will overspread the northern Plains
today as a mid-level trough amplifies. Beneath the strongest
mid-level jet streak, winds of 30 to 35 mph are expected at the
surface. Relative humidity will drop into the upper teens from far
northeast Montana across western North Dakota and into northern
South Dakota. Elsewhere, relative humidity will likely be too high
to warrant a critical delineation.
Farther south, across central and eastern Nebraska, some critical
conditions may also develop. However, Tuesday night thunderstorms
brought some rainfall to this region and therefore, fuels will
likely not be as receptive.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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