| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 18.10.22 14:00z 314 Lines 11094 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3648_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RBS<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 221018/1230Z 3648@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 18 09:02:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 18 09:02:02 UTC 2022.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Oct 18 09:02:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 18 09:02:02 UTC
2022.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Oct 18, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is unlikely across the U.S. Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS will undergo some
amplification today as a surge of cool continental air continues
south towards the lower MS River Valley/central Gulf Coast. A cold
front extending from the New England region into the Gulf Coast
region will continue to meander south/southeast through the day,
fostering thunderstorm chances across portions of Maine and the
southern FL Peninsula.
...Southern Florida Peninsula...
A moderately unstable (SBCAPE values near 2500 J/kg) and sheared
environment sampled by 00 UTC soundings from TBW and MFL will
persist through the afternoon ahead of the approaching front.
However, forcing for ascent along the front is expected to be meager
given the westerly low-level flow regime and displacement from
stronger synoptic ascent to the northeast. Consequently,
thunderstorm coverage will likely remain fairly limited outside of
the southeastern FL coast where low-level convergence will be
locally stronger.
..Moore/Broyles.. 10/18/2022
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Oct 18, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected across the U.S. Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
The upper-level long-wave pattern -- characterized by a western
ridge/eastern trough -- will persist over the U.S. for Day
2/Wednesday, as a deep upper cyclone remains centered over the
Ottawa River Valley, and surrounding cyclonic flow encompasses the
eastern half of the country. Upstream, ridging will also persist in
the West, though some deamplification of the upper ridge is expected
overnight Wednesday and into Thursday, as short-wave troughing moves
out of the Gulf of Alaska and into western Canada.
At the surface, an expansive cold front -- lingering over New
England and southern Florida but otherwise offshore over the western
Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period -- should
clear both areas during the day.
Showers and perhaps a stray lightning strike will be possible early
in the period over portions of northern and eastern Maine, before
the front vacates the region. Showers -- and possibly a
thunderstorm -- will also affect portions of southern Florida and
the Keys, but coverage of any onshore lightning should remain below
10% -- thus warranting removal of the prior thunder area across this
region. Elsewhere, aside from a stray strike in lake-effect
convection from Lake Huron into the Lower Lakes, thunderstorms are
not expected over the CONUS.
..Goss.. 10/18/2022
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Oct 18, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
The breakdown of what has been a very persistent upper pattern
across the U.S. will continue on Thursday, as short-wave troughing
moving east-southeastward across western Canada acts both to
flatten/deamplify the western U.S. ridge, and to eventually act as a
"kicker" to initiate eastward progression of the eastern U.S.
trough.
At the surface, high pressure will prevail across the southern and
eastern U.S. coastal states, though a reinforcing surge of cold air
is forecast to spread across the Ohio Valley area. Meanwhile,
another cold-air surge is expected across the northern Rockies and
northern Plains region, as the aforementioned upper short-wave
trough crosses the Canadian Prairie.
Thunderstorm potential will remain unlikely across most of the U.S.
on Thursday. A weak low progged by the NAM to evolve off of the
east coast of Florida may allow some inland moistening to occur,
owing to easterly/northeasterly flow north of the low. This could
contribute to sufficient CAPE development for a few afternoon
convective cells near the east-coast sea-breeze boundary, a couple
of which could produce a few lightning strikes. Elsewhere,
thunderstorms are not expected.
..Goss.. 10/18/2022
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Oct 18, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue the large-scale pattern shift, from the
current, persistent western ridge/eastern trough pattern to a much
more progressive -- though still high-amplitude -- regime.
As the eastern trough weakens and progresses eastward toward/off the
Atlantic Coast, a briefly more zonal flow field is expected to
evolve in its wake Day 4/Friday. However, a short-wave trough
digging south-southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska along the
British Columbia coast toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific
Northwest Day 4, will dig farther southeastward and expand across
the West Day 5. As this occurs, downstream surface cyclogenesis is
expected to occur over the northern Plains vicinity, while high
pressure persists over the east.
Developing southerly low-level flow across the central U.S. -- on
the back side of the eastern high and within the warm sector of the
developing northern Plains low -- will begin to allow northward
return of higher theta-e air. This will allow an eventual increase
in convective -- and possibly severe-weather -- potential as the
western system advances.
However, the advance of the western trough is not handled
consistently amongst medium-range models. These timing issues also
manifest in the surface pattern, with differences
increasing/amplifying from mid Day 6 (Sunday afternoon/evening)
onward.
Given these disparities in the various model solutions,
predictability concerns from Day 6 onward preclude any meaningful
assessment of severe potential. However, as models hopefully
converge toward a more consistent solution, severe-weather potential
may become sufficient, and predictable enough, to include a risk
area or areas in later outlooks.
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of the central Gulf Coast as a dry post-frontal air mass
overspreads the region. Localized fire weather concerns may develop
across portions of the eastern Plains as near-record-low dewpoints
linger of the region. Dry conditions will persist across the
northern Great Basin, but ridging over the northwest CONUS will
limit wind speeds, modulating the fire weather threat.
...Gulf Coast...
An offshore flow regime has become established along the central
Gulf Coast after a cold frontal passage late Monday. Latest guidance
suggests that strong cold advection will be in place over the coast
by peak heating, which will aid in steepening low-level lapse rates
and downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds. Ensemble guidance continues
to show reasonably high probability in RH values in the 20-30%
range, which will support elevated fire weather conditions over an
area with ERC values above the 90th percentile.
...Eastern Plains to East Texas...
Early-morning surface observations across eastern NE/KS and western
IA/MO are sampling single digit to low-teen dewpoints, which are
near record low values for mid October. This unseasonably dry air
mass will yield RH values between 20-25% from the lower MO River
Valley to eastern TX as it migrates south through the day. Winds
generally between 10-15 mph may occasionally gust into the upper
teens and low 20s, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather
conditions. Low confidence in the sustenance and coverage of these
conditions over areas that have not received recent rainfall
precludes additional highlights.
..Moore.. 10/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across portions of
the central High Plains for Wednesday. An unseasonably dry air mass
over the central CONUS is expected to remain in place over the next
48 hours. This will result in another day of widespread 20-35% RH
from east of the Rockies to the MS River Valley. Surface high
pressure over the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley will limit
wind speeds for most locations, but breezier conditions across the
central High Plains will result in regional fire weather concerns.
...Southeast WY to northeast CO...
Recent guidance suggests that a shortwave trough embedded within the
mean flow will crest the highly-amplified ridge over the western
U.S. and dive southward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature
will elicit a low-level mass response in the form of weak surface
pressure falls and increasing northwest winds from eastern WY into
northeast CO. Ensemble members, as well as deterministic solutions,
suggest 15-25 mph winds will be common with RH values falling into
the 15-20% range, given a marginal downslope component to the
low-level winds and antecedent dry conditions. The latest drought
indices and 14-day rainfall analyses suggest that fuels are
adequately receptive to support a fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 10/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
hecho en PHP: Hypertext Preprocessor - Desarrollado por Eduardo Castillo
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
