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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.10.22 12:46z 325 Lines 11914 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3709_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<N9PMO<
VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221019/1231Z 3709@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 19 09:02:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 19 09:02:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Oct 19 09:02:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 19 09:02:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 19, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected across the U.S. Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
The potential for severe weather will remain very limited for today
as an amplified upper low over the Great Lakes region slowly
migrates to the east/northeast with persistent ridging across the
western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will continue to push
into the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico/northern Caribbean with
offshore flow across the East and Gulf coasts. This will result in
minimal thunderstorm chances outside of the Lake Eerie and Lake
Huron regions where cold temperatures aloft near the center of the
low will overlap with warm lake temperatures, providing sufficient
buoyancy for an occasional lightning strike through the day.
..Moore/Broyles.. 10/19/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 19, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A change to the prevailing upper-level flow field across the U.S.
will begin in earnest on Thursday, as short-wave troughing moving
east-southeastward across the Canadian Prairie will contribute to
eastward progression of previously entrenched upper troughing over
the East. With the advance of this Canadian short-wave trough also
acting to suppress western U.S. ridging, an overall deamplification
of the upper flow field will occur.
At the surface, high pressure will reside over the East and Gulf
Coasts, while a cold front -- associated with the Canadian upper
trough -- shifts southeastward across the northern Intermountain
Region, and eventually the northern Plains. However, a lack of
moisture/CAPE ahead of this front precludes thunderstorm potential.
At this time, the only thunderstorm potential that is evident
through early Friday will remain near the southeastern Florida
coast. As a weak low develops offshore/near the Bahamas, a few
thunderstorms will be possible. Most of the convection will remain
offshore, though a storm affecting the immediate coastal areas
cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, lightning is not expected across
the U.S. through the period.
..Goss.. 10/19/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 19, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe storms are expected across the U.S. Friday.
...Synopsis...
Evolution/transition of the upper-level pattern over the U.S. will
continue Friday, as the eastern U.S. trough continues to shift east
and weaken. Meanwhile, in the wake of initial short-wave troughing
moving across the Canadian Prairie into Ontario/Quebec, a second
short-wave trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward out of the
Gulf of Alaska, and into the Pacific Northwest. As a result,
cyclonic flow will expand to cover much of the West.
As this occurs, an initial cold front should become quasi-stationary
over the north-central U.S., while a secondary surge of the boundary
occurs with its western extension -- across the northwestern states
-- ahead of the digging upper trough. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will continue to prevail over the East.
As the eastern trough gradually weakens, a remnant/weak low may
linger across the Florida vicinity. This may support showers, and
possibly a stray thunderstorm near the coast. However, potential
for any onshore lightning appears too low to warrant inclusion of a
10% thunder area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across
the U.S. through Saturday morning.
..Goss.. 10/19/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 19, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to exhibit a reasonable degree of
similarity in their depictions of the large-scale pattern evolution
through Saturday (Day 4), as troughing continues to amplify/shift
eastward across the western U.S.
As this system advances however, some timing differences emerge,
with the ECMWF trending toward a closed circulation more quickly
than the GFS, and thus a slightly slower progression.
These timing differences are significant, from the perspective that
synoptically, the pattern would favor some severe potential evolving
over the mid Missouri Valley vicinity Sunday afternoon. However,
the main limiting factor will be sufficient return of low-level
moisture. The slower ECMWF solution supports not only the potential
for slightly greater moisture return ahead of the front, but also a
more westward risk area as compared to the GFS. And given that any
risk would likely be within a narrow corridor very close to the
frontal zone, the 100 to 150 mile difference in frontal position
depicted for early Sunday evening -- central Nebraska vs. near the
Nebraska/Iowa border -- suggest largely non-overlapping zones of
potential.
Given these timing differences, and the relative dearth of moisture
and resulting concerns about the degree of instability which will be
available, no areal 15% highlight will be included at this time.
As the model differences persist/increase with time, through the end
of the period, predictability concerns preclude any further
assessment of convective potential.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
this afternoon across portions of the central High Plains. This
threat will largely be driven by a weak upper-level disturbance over
south-central Canada that is forecast to propagate southward through
the Plains within a northerly flow regime. The low-level mass
response ahead of the wave will result in breezy northwesterly winds
across the central High Plains where fuels are fairly dry. Elsewhere
across the CONUS, dry conditions will prevail as an unseasonably dry
air mass lingers across the central U.S.; however, weak winds will
generally limit additional concerns.
...Central High Plains...
Early-morning surface observations show dry conditions across
southeast WY into northeast CO with dewpoints in the 20s. While this
region is on the periphery of the driest air to the east, increasing
northwest winds will support downslope warming/drying this
afternoon. RH reductions down to 15-25% are expected with sustained
winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30 mph at times). A swath of
elevated wind/RH conditions is expected across the region with
periods of critical conditions probable for southeast WY into parts
of the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. Consideration was given
for a Critical risk area, but somewhat poor ensemble consensus on
the duration and coverage of these conditions precluded an upgrade.
Regardless, recent fuel analyses show adequately dry fuels with ERC
values above seasonal average (generally in the 80-90th
percentiles), which should support the fire weather concern.
...Lower OH River Valley...
Brief and localized elevated conditions may materialize this
afternoon across southern IL into southwest IN where winds may
approach 15 mph with RH values in the mid 20s. Parts of this region
that have seen little rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks have likely
maintained dry fuels, but limited confidence in wind magnitudes
precludes additional highlights.
..Moore.. 10/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL MONTANA...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for parts
of the northern Rockies on Thursday. The high amplitude ridge over
the western CONUS is expected to de-amplify over the next 24-48
hours as a series of weak perturbations move into southwest Canada.
This will result in increasing zonal flow over the northern Rockies
and the deepening of a lee trough/cyclone over the Canadian Prairies
and northern High Plains. Consequently, westerly downslope winds
will increase over a region with dry fuels.
...Central to Southeast Montana...
The 00 UTC TFX sounding sampled a very dry air mass in place across
MT with single-digit RH values in the lowest kilometer. Increasing
westerly downslope winds over the next 48 hours will likely maintain
this dry air mass and aid in curing fine fuels through Thursday
afternoon. Temperatures warming into the mid 70s will be well above
seasonal normals (near to above the 90th percentile for mid/late
October) with corresponding RH values between 15-20%. Ensemble
guidance shows reasonably high confidence in critical wind speeds
with 10th percentile maximum winds between 20-25 mph. While critical
conditions will likely be confined to central to southeast MT,
drier/windier solutions hint at the potential for critical wind
speeds as far east as parts of central ND. ERCs across central to
eastern MT are currently near or above the 80th percentile, but will
likely climb amid the dry conditions over the next 48 hours.
...Southern Wyoming...
A westerly downslope flow regime will also become established
through the Wyoming Basin on Thursday. Winds increasing to 15-20 mph
will coincide with RH values in the teens to low 20s over a region
has seen limited rainfall in recent weeks. Periods of critical winds
speeds are possible, but confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds is
limited compared to locations further north closer to the deepening
lee cyclone.
...Midwest region...
Breezy winds near 15 mph may coincide with areas of RH values in the
20-30% range Thursday afternoon from central IL eastward to western
OH. This may result in periods of elevated fire weather conditions,
but fuels across the region are generally unreceptive outside of
southern IL/IN, where rainfall has been more limited over the past
1-2 weeks. Fuel conditions will continue to be monitored for the
need for Elevated highlights in subsequent outlooks.
..Moore.. 10/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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