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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.10.22 13:00z 265 Lines 9114 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3777_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KE0GB<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 221020/1230Z 3777@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 20 09:47:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 20 09:47:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Oct 20 09:47:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 20 09:47:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 20, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe storms are expected across the U.S. Friday.
...Synopsis...
A transition from the prior/stagnant upper-level long-wave pattern
over the U.S. toward a more progressive state will be well underway
Friday. A weakening trough over the East is expected to slowly
cross the East Coast states, while broad cyclonic flow gradually
evolves over the western -- and into the central -- CONUS with time
as short-wave troughing digs southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska
into the Northwest.
At the surface, high pressure will remain in place from the Atlantic
Coast states to the Gulf of Mexico, while a baroclinic zone
extending across the north-central and northwest portions of the
country begins a pronounced southeastward push toward/into the Great
Basin and vicinity.
With high pressure prevailing over the Gulf, thus suppressing any
appreciable return of higher theta-e air into the prevailing
continental polar airmass residing east of the Rockies, no inland
thunderstorms are expected through the period.
..Goss.. 10/20/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 20, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
Amplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected to
continue Saturday, as continued southeastward digging of short-wave
energy into the interior West results in a broad zone of cyclonic
flow, which is expected to cover roughly the western half of the
U.S. by late Saturday/early Sunday. Downstream over the East, a
corresponding amplification of upper ridging will occur, though a
weak low (a lingering remnant of the former eastern U.S. trough) is
forecast to shift northward near/just off the East Coast.
At the surface, progression of a well-defined cold front is expected
across the West, and into the northern and central Plains region
during the second half of the period. By Sunday morning, a low is
forecast to reside in the western Kansas vicinity, along an
expansive baroclinic zone extending from Minnesota southwestward to
the Desert Southwest.
With high pressure largely prevailing over the East, most of the
potential for sporadic lightning will be confined to portions of the
West, where cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates support
meager CAPE, and associated convective potential. The only
potential for a lightning flash or two in the East will reside over
the Chesapeake Bay region and areas offshore, near the
aforementioned/weak upper low, and associated surface cyclone just
offshore.
..Goss.. 10/20/2022
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SPC Oct 20, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to depict steady progression of a
high-amplitude western U.S. trough into the central U.S. Day
4/Sunday, with pronounced cyclogenesis occurring with a low
initially in the vicinity of the central High Plains area.
By late Sunday afternoon, this low should reside over the
central/eastern Nebraska vicinity, as a deepening, sub-990mb low,
with a cold front trailing southwestward into West Texas.
Moisture return ahead of this system will be limited, particularly
with northward extent into the Mid Missouri Valley. Still, even
with only modest/rather high-based CAPE, the overall synoptic setup
that would otherwise suggest respectable severe potential warrants
introduction of a narrow 15% risk area, centered near and just east
of the Mid Missouri Valley. Primary risk will likely be locally
damaging wind gusts from late afternoon into the evening hours,
within a narrow zone of convection near/just ahead of the advancing
cold front.
After Sunday, model solutions begin to steadily diverge, with the
ECMWF continuing its trend of a faster eastward advance of the upper
trough, and thus the associated surface front. Given these
uncertainties, assessment of severe-weather potential will not be
offered into early next week.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MONTANA...
...Synopsis...
As the southwestern ridge begins to lose amplitude, a shortwave
disturbance will translate southeastward across portions of the High
Plains, bringing enhanced westerly flow amid dry and unseasonably
warm conditions. Stronger winds can be expected in the downslope
regions of central/eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming where fuels
remain very dry and receptive to fire spread.
...Central and Eastern Montana...
Sustained westerly surface winds at 15-20 mph, along with minimum
relative humidity around 15-20 percent, are expected across portions
of Montana. Fuels across this region are in the 80th-90th percentile
with minimal rainfall in the last 7-14 days. These conditions will
support Elevated and Critical fire weather delineations. With
disagreement in guidance on the overall strength of the winds, the
region of highest confidence for a Critical risk will be in the
downslope regions downwind of the high terrain in central Montana,
where ensemble guidance has highest likelihood of sustained winds of
20 mph.
...Eastern Wyoming...
Sustained westerly winds and enhanced downslope flow around 15-20
mph in combination with relative humidity around 15-20 percent are
expected across portions of eastern Wyoming Thursday. With marginal
relative humidity and receptive fuels, an Elevated delineation is
appropriate, though a few stations may briefly approach critical.
...Ohio Valley...
Continued windy and dry conditions amid receptive fuels will support
an Elevated delineation from western Kentucky northward into
southern Illinois and Indiana. Though the winds are a limiting
factor, relative humidity around 25-30 percent (locally as low as 20
percent) and ERCs at or above the 95th percentile will support
increased risk of fire spread.
..Thornton/Moore.. 10/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING...
...Synopsis...
A trough will begin to deepen across portions of the Pacific
Northwest on Friday with enhanced west-northwesterly flow spreading
across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This
enhanced flow in combination with dry conditions will allow for
increased fire-spread potential.
...Southern Wyoming...
Westerly surface winds sustained at 25-30 mph in combination with
afternoon relative humidity around 15-20 percent support introducing
a Critical delineation across southern Wyoming. Further north,
relative humidity will be more marginal and is well covered by the
Elevated risk.
...Northern Great Basin to the Central High Plains...
A broad area of sustained winds around 15-20 mph and minimum
relative humidity around 15-20% will support an Elevated risk of
fire weather conditions across much of the northern Great Basin
eastward into the High Plains. Across northern Nevada, winds may be
a limiting factor. However, fuels in this region are dry and remain
receptive, supporting mention of elevated fire weather concerns.
..Thornton/Moore.. 10/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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