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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.10.22 14:05z 366 Lines 14337 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3986_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 221023/1230Z 3986@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 23 08:36:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 23 08:36:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Oct 23 08:36:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 23 08:36:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are possible
from the central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
evening into early Monday morning. Additional isolated severe
thunderstorms may produce strong gusts and hail across parts of the
southern Plains early Monday morning.
...Central Plains to Upper MS Valley...
Upper trough is advancing inland across the Intermountain West early
this morning. Mid-level flow will increase across the southern
Rockies early in the period then a 500mb speed max (90kt+) will
translate into eastern SD by 24/12z. In response to this speed max,
lee cyclone will shift east into the central Plains by late
afternoon then lift north across the upper Red River Valley after
midnight.
Boundary-layer moisture is not particularly rich across the warm
sector at this time with 60F surface dew points just now to DAL.
However, it appears 50s dew points will extend along a sharpening
dry line from KS into southeast SD by peak heating where surface
temperatures will likely warm into the lower-mid 80s with
near-dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 3 km of the sounding.
Despite the somewhat marginal moisture (PWs around 1 inch), forecast
soundings exhibit ample buoyancy for the potential for isolated
thunderstorms, as convective temperatures are breached ahead of the
boundary. Additionally, very strong wind fields favor organized
rotation, and a few supercells are possible. With 50kt southerly
flow forecast in the lowest 1km AGL, relatively low sub-cloud RH
values may enhance the wind potential with this late afternoon
convection. Primary large-scale forcing, in association with the
left exit region of the aforementioned jet, will shift north during
the evening, and increasing warm advection is expected to contribute
to elevated convection during the overnight hours. Hail is the
primary risk with this activity, but some wind potential is also
possible as moisture increases across the Red River Valley (of the
North) late in the period ahead of the well-defined surface low.
...Southern Plains...
Low-latitude trough currently observed off the Baja Peninsula is
forecast to eject northeast across northern Mexico toward far west
TX late in the period. Forcing along the leading edge of this
feature should approach the western plume of boundary-layer Gulf
moisture over west TX late. Low-level confluent flow favors
scattered thunderstorm development by sunrise Monday. RAP forecast
sounding for ABI at 24/12z exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg
with a fairly moist profile/modest lapse rates through 9 km.
Forecast shear favors a potential squall line developing into the
early day2 period. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this
activity.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/23/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX...EAST TX/FAR WESTERN LA...AND MIDDLE/UPPER
TX COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas eastward to the
Arklatex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and middle/upper Texas
Coast Monday evening and overnight.
...Synopsis...
A complex upper pattern evolution is anticipated on Monday as a
large-scale upper trough gradually moves eastward across the Plains.
Two shortwave troughs will be embedded within this large upper
trough early Monday, one over the northern Plains and the other over
the Southwest. The northern Plains shortwave is expected to continue
quickly northeastward while the Southwest shortwave moves eastward
into the southern Plains. A weak shortwave over northern Mexico will
precede the Southwest shortwave across TX, while the remnants of
Hurricane Roslyn move quickly northeastward along the TX Coast and
into the Lower MS Valley.
Surface pattern early Monday is expected to feature an occluded low
over eastern ND, with an occluded front extending southeastward from
this low to a triple point over central MN. A cold front will likely
extend southwestward from this triple point through the Lower MO
Valley and central OK. The majority of this front is expected to
progress gradually eastward throughout day. The only exception is
the portion of the front in TX, which will only make minor eastward
progress until Monday evening when the shortwave moves through and
the front surges eastward.
...Southern Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of
the front from southeast KS across central OK and into southwest TX.
Buoyancy will be tempered by relatively warm mid-level temperatures
but moderate mid-level flow could still result in a few updrafts
capable of hail and/or strong downdrafts. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue along the front as the more progressive portion moves
across OK and north TX. The front is expected to become more diffuse
across central TX as surface pressure falls across west TX ahead of
the main shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorm development is
possible within the warm sector ahead of the front across East TX,
but modest buoyancy should keep any severe potential isolated.
Higher severe potential is anticipated later Monday evening and
overnight as the Southwest shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis moves through the southern Plains, transitioning from a
positive tilt to a slightly negative tilt. Strong forcing for ascent
will accompany this shortwave, fostering the development of
additional thunderstorms as it encounters the moderately moist and
buoyant air mass remaining over TX. Thunderstorms will likely begin
in the southwest TX vicinity before then moving quickly eastward
across central TX/Hill Country and east TX. Given the strong low to
mid-level flow accompanying this shortwave, the primary severe risk
is damaging gusts. Some tornado potential will also exist,
particularly near the surface low, where convergence and low-level
vorticity are maximized, and across southeast TX, where the most
favorable overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly
surface winds is anticipated.
..Mosier.. 10/23/2022
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SPC Oct 23, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Mid-South across the Southeast States on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A compact but intense shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
northeastward from the southern Plains through the Mid-South and
into the Lower OH Valley on Tuesday. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany this shortwave, with 80+ kt of 500-mb flow expected to
spread across the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley Tuesday morning and into
the TN Valley but Tuesday afternoon.
Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to begin the
period over AR before moving northeastward throughout the day. This
low will likely reach the middle OH Valley by early Wednesday
morning. An associated cold front will move eastward across the
Lower MS Valley/Mid-South, TN Valley, and much of Southeast during
the period.
A modestly moist air mass, characterized by dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s, will precede the cold front over the Lower MS Valley,
Mid-South, and Southeast. This low-level moisture, coupled with
strong large-scale forcing for ascent, is expected to help maintain
a line of thunderstorms along the front, despite limited heating and
meager buoyancy. Robust kinematic fields suggest damaging gusts as
the primary threat with any deeper updrafts within the line.
Persistent surface ridging along the Eastern Seaboard should temper
low-level moisture with eastern extent, leading to a narrowing warm
sector with time and limiting the eastern extent of the severe risk.
..Mosier.. 10/23/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 23, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that zonal flow
aloft will cover much of the CONUS early D4/Wednesday as a lead
shortwave trough moves from the upper OH Valley northeastward
through the Lower Great Lakes region. The upper pattern is then
expected to begin amplifying on D5/Thursday as another shortwave
trough moves through the Four Corners region and into the Southwest.
This shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the southern
Plains on D6/Friday and lower MS Valley D7/Saturday.
Given the short period between the second shortwave and the one
preceding it, moisture return will likely be confined to TX and the
Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms currently appear possible over the
southern High Plains on D5/Thursday, the southern Plains D6/Friday,
and across the Lower MS Valley on D7/Saturday as the shortwave
approaches and moves through these regions. However, forecast
details regarding the severe-thunderstorm potential remain uncertain
at this forecast range.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....
...Synopsis...
In the mid-levels, a strong western US trough will intensify further
as an 80-90 kt mid-level jet ejects eastward across the southern and
central Rockies over the Plains. The strong mid-level flow will aid
in the development of a sub-990 mb lee low and very strong surface
wind fields over much of the central US. With widespread drought
across the Plains, the strong winds and dry/warm conditions will
support widespread critical fire weather concerns.
...Central and southern Plains...
As the strong area of low pressure continues to deepen and eject
northeastward, low-level southwesterly pressure gradients will
intensify over much of the Plains. A broad area of sustained 25-40
mph winds, with gusts upwards of 50 mph, will be possible through
the afternoon. Coincident with diurnal heating, areas of low to
critical RH (15-30%) are expected through the afternoon. RH will be
lowest across the High Plains west of the lee trough, with values
near or above 30% likely farther east. In addition, fuels remain
highly receptive to fire spread due to ongoing drought over all of
the Plains with ERCs in the 90th+ percentile. The overlap of highly
receptive fuels, strong winds and lower RH lends high confidence to
sustained elevated and some critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon.
A few hours of localized extremely critical conditions will also be
possible mainly across portions of western KS and far eastern CO
where the strongest winds are expected. While mid-level cloud cover
may reduce afternoon mixing, strong downslope flow and warm
temperatures may still support a few pockets of sub 10% RH and wind
gusts greater than 50 mph. The favorable meteorological and fuel
conditions may support rapid wind-driven fire spread.
...California...
Along the backside of the trough, strong mid-level flow will support
gusty surface winds through the Central Valley and coastal
mountains. While fuels remain spotty, a few hours of lower humidity
and gusty winds may support locally elevated fire weather
conditions. Confidence remains too low to introduce areas of
concern.
..Lyons.. 10/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A deep mid-level trough ejecting east across the Rockies will
support broad ascent over much of the Plains and central US Monday.
An associated cold front will sweep east supporting numerous showers
and thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern
Plains. Behind the deep surface low and cold front, a much cooler
airmass will move into the central US limiting the potential for
fire weather conditions. The only exception will be weak offshore
flow possible across the southern California coastal ranges behind
the upper trough. Here, occasional gusty winds and lower humidity
may support a few hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns.
However, given minimal coverage and spotty dry fuels, critical fire
weather potential remains low.
..Lyons.. 10/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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