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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.10.22 16:47z 315 Lines 11256 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4267_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<W9GM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 221027/1230Z 4267@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 27 08:44:02 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 27 08:44:02 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Oct 27 08:44:02 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 27 08:44:02 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 27, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
TX ROLLING PLAINS INTO WESTERN NORTH TX...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing hail and isolated severe gusts
will be possible across parts of west Texas, mainly this evening
into the overnight hours.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to evolve into a
closed low as it moves southeastward into the southern Rockies later
today. As this occurs, a cold front will move through the central
High Plains today and into the southern High Plains tonight. In
conjunction with the cold front, a weak surface cyclone is forecast
to propagate southward across west TX through the period. Modest
low-level moisture return is expected across west TX in advance of
the cold front, with richer moisture expected to reach parts of
south TX eastward to the middle TX Coast by Friday morning.
...Parts of west TX into southwest OK...
Despite generally modest moisture return (dewpoints potentially
increasing to the low 50s F), steep midlevel lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft will support pockets of moderate buoyancy by
early evening across parts of the Rolling Plains into western north
TX, with weaker buoyancy spreading northward into the TX Panhandle
and southwest OK. Capping should inhibit storm development through
the day, but isolated initiation will be possible by mid evening
near a weak dryline, with primarily elevated convection increasing
in coverage later tonight as large-scale ascent and moisture quality
gradually increase across the region.
Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures,
and a couple of elevated supercells will be possible later tonight,
though cell interference could lead to messy storm modes as
convective coverage increases. The thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will be most favorable for hail, though isolated severe
gusts cannot be ruled out, especially if any organized clustering
can evolve overnight.
Farther south into parts of central TX and the Hill Country/Edwards
Plateau region, somewhat richer low-level moisture (dewpoints in the
60s F) will support a conditional risk for near-surface-based
supercells and possibly a tornado, though storm coverage is more
uncertain in this area (compared to areas to the north) prior to 12Z
Friday.
...Middle TX Coast...
Guidance varies considerably regarding the coverage and intensity of
deep convection near the effective warm front along the middle TX
Coast prior to 12Z Friday. The environment will become conditionally
favorable for supercell development as deep-layer shear increases
and richer low-level moisture streams northward, but stronger
large-scale ascent will likely not arrive until the D2/Friday
period. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this
region if confidence increases regarding organized storm development
prior to the end of the period.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 10/27/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 27, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
TX COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Middle Texas Coastal
Plain.
...TX...
A mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered over the TX South
Plains early Friday morning, with enhanced mid-level flow extending
throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is forecast to
gradually move eastward across central/north-central TX, reaching
northeast TX by early Saturday morning. An associated surface low is
expected to be over southwest TX early Friday morning. A warm front
will extend southeastward from this low while a cold front extends
back south-southwestward.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period from the TX Big Country near the low southward along the
front. Some isolated hail is possible with this early morning
activity near the low, while a low probability wind and tornado risk
extends along the front. Expectation is for the surface low to
generally progress southeastward along the warm front through the TX
Hill Country and into TX Coastal Plain.
The warm sector ahead of this low will likely be characterized by
upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the low 70s, which
should be enough to foster moderate buoyancy. Supercell wind
profiles are expected within the warm sector as southeasterly
surface winds veer to more westerly at the mid-levels. As a result,
storms along and ahead of the front will likely strengthen during
the afternoon. Given the environmental conditions, some supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible.
This is particularly true if more discrete development occurs ahead
of the front. The warm sector will likely be confined to the middle
TX coast, limiting the spatial extent of the supercell risk.
Severe thunderstorms are also possible along the front across south
TX as the front moves through during the afternoon and evening.
However, veered low-level flow preceding the front and displacement
south of the stronger mid-level flow will limit shear and should
keep severe coverage isolated.
..Mosier.. 10/27/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 27, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States on Saturday.
..Lower MS Valley/Southeast...
A mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered over northeast TX
early Saturday, before gradually moving northeastward through the
Mid-South while weakening. Surface low attendant to this system is
forecast to be centered just ahead of the upper low across northern
LA. This surface low is also expected to progress northeastward
while occluding. As it does, an associated cold front will move
eastward across the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast.
Modest low-level moisture is expected to be in place ahead of this
front, contributing to limited buoyancy and thunderstorms as it
moves eastward. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will spread over
the region, supporting the potential for a few strong to severe
storms, particularly during the afternoon and evening.
..Mosier.. 10/27/2022
Read more
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SPC Oct 27, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance suggests a shortwave trough will be over the
Mid MS Valley early D4/Sunday, before then continuing quickly
northeastward across the lower/middle OH Valley. Another shortwave
will follow quickly in the wake of the first, moving from OK into
the Mid MS Valley.
By early D5/Monday, broad upper troughing is forecast to cover the
southern half of the CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will likely be
embedded within this upper troughing, including the one over the Mid
MS Valley as well as another from the southern High Plains into
northern Mexico. However, buoyancy will remain weak and the
severe-weather potential will be low.
Guidance continues to show the potential for more significant
western CONUS troughing beginning D6/Tuesday. Most recent guidance
has trended deeper, with a large upper trough potentially covering
much of the western CONUS on D7/Wednesday. However, run-to-run
variability continues, limiting forecast confidence. Additionally,
uncertain evolution of a shortwave trough expected to move across
the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday complicates the forecast by
potentially inhibiting moisture return. Predictability of how this
trough (and any related shortwave troughs) evolves remains low, but
the potential for severe weather across the central CONUS late next
week is increasing.
Read more
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states today, with a
surface low expected to surge southeast across west Texas as high
pressure builds across the Interior West. Occasionally dry and windy
conditions should develop by afternoon behind the low in parts of
west Texas. However, questionable fuel receptiveness and marginally
low RH suggest that fire weather highlights are not needed.
Similarly, dry offshore flow is also likely across southern
California, with Elevated conditions likely. Nonetheless, fire
weather highlights have been withheld since fuels across the area
are poorly receptive to fire spread.
..Squitieri.. 10/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will traverse the southern U.S. as a mid-level
impulse ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow/Friday. With the
passage of the mid-level impulse, surface lee troughing and
associated southerly surface winds will increase across the northern
Plains, with some of the latest guidance depicting Elevated winds/RH
during the afternoon. However, potential preceding rainfall may
dampen fuels that are already modest at best to fire spread, so fire
weather highlights have been withheld.
..Squitieri.. 10/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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