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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.10.22 16:44z 78 Lines 3051 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4345_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28-OCT22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 221028/1630Z 4345@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 28 12:58:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 28 12:58:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Oct 28 12:58:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 28 12:58:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Oct 28, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TX...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with isolated damaging winds, large hail, and a
tornado or two are possible today across the middle Texas coast and
southeast Texas.
...Central to southeast TX through this evening...
A closed midlevel low over west TX will translate eastward over
central into east TX by early Saturday. An associated/weak surface
cyclone will likewise move east/northeastward along a
convectively-reinforced baroclinic zone near the middle and upper TX
coast. Convection is ongoing in two primary zones this morning: 1)
over central TX in the main band of ascent preceding the midlevel
low, and 2) just off the upper TX coast along the rain-reinforced
surface front. The former storms in central TX will encounter
low-mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and weak-moderate buoyancy,
though the convection will be slightly elevated with the
most-unstable parcels originating just above the ground. The
strongest storms will have the potential to produce isolated large
hail and damaging gusts. The latter storms include embedded
supercells, though rightward propagation of the stronger supercells
will tend to keep them offshore.
In the wake of the offshore storms, there is some concern regarding
if and how far the richer moisture and true surface warm sector will
progress inland. The more probable area for purely surface-based
storms will be along the southern fringe of the forcing for ascent
spreading eastward today from central TX, which coincides with the
middle TX coastal plain. Here, there will be some potential for
surface-based supercells with damaging wind/large hail and a tornado
or two possible, though confidence in the specifics of storm
evolution is low.
..Thompson/Bentley.. 10/28/2022
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