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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.04.19 07:33z 167 Lines 9312 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22951_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 27 04
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190427/0700Z 22951@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233
AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX
INTO AR...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly
late Saturday afternoon and early evening across parts of north
Texas and southern Oklahoma through central and northern Arkansas.
...North TX to AR...
Central Plains short-wave trough is forecast to dig east-southeast
across the upper Midwest into the lower Great Lakes region by the
end of the period. As this feature translates downstream, surface
anticyclone will build into the Mid-MS Valley region which will force
a pronounced surface front to a position from the Ozark Plateau,
southwest along the Red River into the TX South Plains by 28/00z.
Early this morning, low-level moisture is quite scant across the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley with surface dew points
in the 40s/50s common. While dew points will likely struggle to
rise appreciably across the marginal risk, latest model guidance
suggests PW values will increase to 1"+ ahead of the front. This
should be adequate for buoyancy that will support potentially
robust updrafts. However, meaningful large-scale forcing for
ascent is expected to spread across the Mid-MS Valley into the
Great Lakes region and aside from frontal convergence, negligible
forcing is anticipated along the trailing boundary into west TX. As
a result, it appears boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental
in convective development. Even so, thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the TX High Plains as surface parcels reach their
convective temperatures near the frontal zone. CAMs support this
scenario with isolated supercells evolving across the western TX
Panhandle by mid afternoon. This activity should spread southeast
during the evening with an attendant threat for hail and wind.
Downstream, isolated storms may develop along the wind shift
extending across AR into the Red River region of southern OK/north
TX. Locally damaging winds and hail are the primary threats if
convection develops within a strongly sheared westerly flow regime.
..Darrow/Gleason.. 04/27/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night from the central/southern High Plains
to Missouri.
...Synopsis... A northern-stream trough will continue to amplify
as it spreads generally eastward over the northern Plains toward
the Upper Midwest, all while a southern-stream upper low slowly
approaches southern California and Baja Mexico.
...Eastern Colorado to Kansas/Missouri... Via the northern
Plains upper trough, strengthening cyclonically curved winds
aloft will overspread the region late in the day. As this occurs,
a southeastward-advancing front across the central Plains will
intercept a modestly moist air mass late Sunday afternoon and
night. Initial thunderstorm development and intensification
is expected across the central High Plains including northeast
Colorado/northwest Kansas Sunday afternoon/early evening near and
north of a deepening surface low and triple point, where a few
surface-based severe storms appear possible. By Sunday night,
increasing forcing for ascent/warm advection will influence an
increasing number of elevated storms across Kansas into Missouri,
the strongest of which could produce severe hail.
...Northwest Texas/Texas South Plains to far western Oklahoma...
Overall forcing for ascent will likely be weak/nebulous coincident
with the north/south-oriented dryline across west/northwest Texas.
Even so, sufficient convergence and heating/mixing near the dryline
in conjunction with near 60F surface dewpoints could be sufficient
for isolated deep convective development by late afternoon/early
evening. Most available guidance features little if any convectively
related development around peak heating, although the NSSL-ARW,
12Z/26 ECMWF, and the WRF-ARWKF control lend credence to the
potential for such development. If so, very steep lapse rates,
upwards of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and ample effective shear would exist
for a couple of supercells, with large hail and severe-caliber
wind gusts possible. At least low severe probabilities remain
prudent for at least a conditional-type severe risk given the
supercell-favorable environment.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Guyer.. 04/27/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the central Plains will
develop eastward to the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes today. A
separate shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across
the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies through the period. At
the surface, a low in the vicinity of eastern NE will also develop
eastward, with a trailing cold front shifting southward across the
southern/central Plains.
...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Strong/gusty
north-northwesterly winds appear likely behind the front this
afternoon, although lowered RH values appear marginal across parts of
the central High Plains due to somewhat cooler temperatures. Both
fuel receptiveness and the potential for elevated conditions
continue to appear too limited to include an elevated area over
parts of eastern CO and western KS.
Farther south, locally elevated conditions appear possible across
parts of NM and eastern AZ. Westerly winds may increase to around
15-20 mph behind a surface trough/dryline, but ahead of the
southward-moving cold front. RH values should also decrease to
15-20% through diurnal mixing processes. However, the duration of
these conditions this afternoon appears too short to introduce an
elevated delineation.
...Portions of the Southeast... A dry post-frontal airmass will be
in place across much of the Southeast today. RH values will likely
become lowered into the 15-25% range for at least a few hours
this afternoon across parts of SC, GA, and FL. However, winds are
expected to remain light across this region, so no elevated area
has been introduced.
..Gleason.. 04/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies/Plains
will shift eastward on Day 2/Sunday, eventually reaching parts of
the Upper Midwest late in the period. Farther south, an upper low
will approach the coast of southern CA late Sunday night. A surface
low should gradually deepen across eastern CO Sunday afternoon,
with a lee trough/dryline extending southward from this low across
the southern High Plains.
...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains...
Modestly enhanced mid-level westerly winds will likely be in place
over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 2/Sunday.
Diurnal mixing of the boundary layer should mix these winds aloft
to the surface. A gradually strengthening surface pressure gradient
is also expected to increase west-southwesterly surface winds to
15-25 mph by Sunday afternoon behind the dryline across parts of
northern/eastern AZ into much of NM, southeastern CO, and west TX.
RH values are forecast to fall into the 10-20% over this region, and
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely where fuels are dry.
Short-term guidance suggests that critical meteorological conditions
may occur across parts of eastern NM, but recent and additional
forecast precipitation may temporarily fuel receptiveness across
this region. Will therefore defer a possible upgrade to critical
across this region to a later forecast update.
...Portions of the Southeast... A dry post-frontal airmass will
remain across much of the Southeast on Day 2/Sunday. RH values
should again become lowered into the 15-25% range Sunday afternoon
across parts of SC, GA, and FL. However, winds should remain light
across this region, so no elevated area has been included.
..Gleason.. 04/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Many changes of mind and mood; do not hesitate too long.
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