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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.11.22 20:44z 84 Lines 3375 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4864_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 03-NOV22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<GB7YEW<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221103/1730Z 4864@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 3 12:57:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 3 12:57:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Nov 3 12:57:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 3 12:57:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Nov 3, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible overnight
from Texas Panhandle northeastward into central Kansas.
...Southern/central Plains tonight...
A deep midlevel trough over the southern Great Basin will progress
eastward over the Four Corners tonight. An associated/lee cyclone
in eastern CO this morning will develop southeastward toward extreme
northwest OK by Friday morning, as a cold front moves southeastward
across KS and the northern TX/OK Panhandles by 04/12z. Low-level
moisture (low-mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints) will continue to
spread northward through tonight from TX across OK and into KS,
which will support gradual destabilization in the warm sector
through early Friday.
The open warm sector is likely to remain capped through the period,
and the more substantial low-level moistening will not occur until
late this evening into tonight near the remnant lee cyclone and
along the cold front in KS. The primary midlevel height falls will
also be delayed until tonight across the High Plains with the
approach of the Four Corners trough, so storm initiation is expected
to occur overnight (06z or later) from the northern TX Panhandle
into southwest KS. The convection will be rooted near or just above
the surface, in an environment of moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE near
1000 J/kg), midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km, and long
hodographs with strong deep-layer vertical shear. The primary
severe threats appear to be damaging gusts and isolated large hail
with the slightly elevated convection overnight. A tornado cannot
be ruled out with storms rooted near the surface, though low-level
hodograph curvature is forecast to diminish along the cold front by
the time storms form late tonight.
There will be some potential for isolated thunderstorm development
south of the lee cyclone along the dryline late in the period,
though uncertainty increases with southward extent. Any storms that
form will pose a conditional threat for isolated large hail and
damaging gusts.
..Thompson/Edwards.. 11/03/2022
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