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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.11.22 06:05z 88 Lines 3509 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4893_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-NOV22
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 221104/0831Z 4893@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 4 00:56:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 4 00:56:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Nov 4 00:56:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 4 00:56:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Nov 4, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight. The
stronger cells could be associated with isolated large hail or wind
damage.
...Southern and Central Plains...
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level low over the
Desert Southwest with weakly diffluent southwest mid-level flow from
the southern Rockies into the southern and central Plains. A 75 to
90 knot mid-level jet, to the southeast of the upper-level low, is
centered in far southwest New Mexico. At the surface, a 1002 mb low
is located in the far western Oklahoma Panhandle, with a cold front
in far southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Surface dewpoints to
the southeast of the front will gradually increase into the 55 to 65
F range this evening.
A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is located from the southern Plains
north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. This feature
will strengthen gradually this evening, serving to increase moisture
advection across the region. In response, instability will increase
steadily from the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma into
southern Kansas. By 06Z along this corridor, RAP forecast soundings
have MUCAPE reaching the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, but this seems
overdone considering the 00Z soundings at Norman and Amarillo. These
soundings have a capping inversion present between 850 and 700 mb.
The cap will likely diminish around 07Z in central Kansas, with the
cap weakening further south later in the overnight period. In
response, thunderstorms are forecast to develop in central Kansas
along the western edge of the low-level jet around 07Z. By 09z,
storms are also expected to form in western Oklahoma and the eastern
Texas Panhandle.
The mid-level jet will eject northeastward across the southern and
central High Plains this evening. As a result, effective shear will
steadily increase, reaching the 50 to 65 knot range in many areas by
midnight. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rate near 7.5 C/km
will be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail.
Increasing convective coverage is expected to result in cell
interactions, which could boost the wind-damage potential in some
areas as well.
..Broyles.. 11/04/2022
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