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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.11.22 10:01z 117 Lines 4193 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5797_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-NOV22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VK6HGR<VK7AX<VK2IO<W0ARP<N3HYM<VE3CGR<
VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 221118/0930Z 5797@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 18 00:59:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 18 00:59:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC MD 1956
MD 1956 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2022
Areas affected...portions of extreme western New York
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 180057Z - 180700Z
SUMMARY...2+ inch snowfall rates are expected to accompany a primary
snowband near or just south of the Buffalo, NY area this evening
into early tomorrow morning. Reduced visibility and crippling travel
conditions are possible through the night.
DISCUSSION...A mid-level impulse embedded within the broader
cyclonic upper flow is traversing the Lower MI peninsula and is
approaching Lakes Erie/Ontario and far western NY, with broader
deep-layer ascent gradually increasing over the Upper Hudson Valley.
The approach of this impulse is causing surface-700 mb winds to veer
more southwesterly, paralleling the long axis of Lake Erie. As such,
a primary snowband (also paralleling Lake Erie) is beginning to
mature and align in a manner that is favorable for a long-duration
heavy lake-effect snow event for or immediately south of the
Buffalo, NY area. Mesoanalysis trends also show surface-700 mb
cold-air advection over Lake Erie, with the -12C to -17C dendritic
growth zone deepening and saturating. The cold-air advection atop a
warmer water surface is also contributing to 7.5 C/km low-level
lapse rates near the Lake Erie shoreline (per the 00Z BUF observed
sounding), which may possibly steepen further to near 8.5 C/km
tonight, increasing SBCAPE over water to near 250 J/kg.
The increase in CAPE and deepening/saturating of the dendritic
growth zone may support convective snow development within the
primary snow band, with 2+ inch/hr snowfall rates and near-zero
visibility possible. The heaviest snowfall is most likely after 03Z
and may continuing to 12Z Friday morning (based on the latest runs
of the HRRR and the 12Z HREF ensemble consensus). Should a prolonged
period of 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates occur, potentially crippling
travel conditions may develop.
..Squitieri.. 11/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...
LAT...LON 42617916 42697906 42757894 42817889 42907892 42937895
43037898 43087892 43097878 42977862 42747851 42577868
42527886 42517910 42617916
Read more
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SPC Nov 18, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2022
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes are possible across parts of the lower
Great Lakes within lake-effect snowbands.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move southward across the western U.S.
tonight as a broad cyclonic flow pattern remains in place across the
eastern half of the nation. At the surface, high pressure will
remain across the Southeast, as another area of high pressure moves
southward into the northern Rockies and central to northern High
Plains. This cold and dry airmass will be unfavorable for
thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. The only exception
will be in the lower Great Lakes, where a few lightning strikes
could occur in association with lake-effect snowbands.
..Broyles.. 11/18/2022
Read more
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