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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.04.19 07:04z 238 Lines 13974 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23029_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 28 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190428/0700Z 23029@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245
AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF KANSAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, mainly over the central Plains region. A
strong to severe storm or two will also be possible over a portion
of west Texas during the afternoon.
...Synopsis... A progressive northern stream will exist across the
CONUS today, with mid/upper troughs migrating from the Great Lakes
eastward to northern New England and from Montana to Minnesota.
Meanwhile, another mid-level low will migrate northeastward from
the Pacific and affect portions of southern California and western
Arizona during the latter half of the forecast period.
At the surface, a high initially centered over Iowa/Illinois will
shift quickly eastward toward the eastern Great Lakes by the end of
the forecast period, while lee cyclogenesis occurs along the WY/CO
Front Range through early evening. This low will shift southeastward
ahead of an advancing high and cold front over the northern High
Plains. Meanwhile, gradually increasing boundary-layer moisture
will occur across most of the Plains via advection from a modified
maritime airmass currently over Texas.
...Eastern Colorado eastward through northwestern Missouri...
Early in the afternoon, strengthening 850mb warm advection atop a
stable airmass will result in a few storms across northeastern Kansas
and northwestern Missouri. Indications are that this activity will
develop just on the eastern edge of a steep mid-level lapse-rate
plume, with effective shear supportive of updraft rotation. Hail is
possible with the strongest cores. This activity should shift
eastward into central Missouri/southern Iowa through the evening.
Upstream, models suggest that additional, thunderstorm activity
will develop across eastern Colorado - perhaps as early as 18-20Z.
These storms will be high-based and well displaced from deeper
boundary-layer moisture to the east, with 50s F dewpoints
focused along and just east of a dryline near the CO/KS border.
These storms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail, and
will probably persist while traveling eastward into western Kansas.
High-based development will also be possible farther south along the
dryline into southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas during
the afternoon. Once storms cross the dryline and encounter higher
low-level moisture and stronger low-level shear, they will likely
contain at least a low-end tornado threat in addition to a greater
risk of hail and damaging wind gusts.
With time, a southward-moving cold front (on the leading edge
of cooler air associated with the aforementioned High Plains
anticyclone) will migrate into central and southern Kansas.
Meanwhile, strengthening low-level flow attendant to a nocturnal
boundary-layer jet will exist along an axis from west-central
Texas to southern Kansas. Convergence on the nose of this jet will
encourage widespread convective development within an environment
characterized by strong effective vertical shear and very steep
(9-9.5 deg C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Large hail is expected to
occur with the strongest activity, with enough expected coverage to
justify a 15% hail probability area and Slight risk. These storms
should persist through the end of the forecast period while migrating
eastward into eastern Kansas and vicinity.
...Portions of the Texas South Plains... Although mid-level forcing
for ascent is negligible, the combination of low-level convergence
along the dryline/surface trough and surface heating may foster
isolated supercell development near Lubbock and along the I-27
corridor. Confidence is not particularly high that storms will
develop and persist long enough to become mature, though most CAMS
indicate isolated supercellular storms containing updraft rotation.
Shear and thermodynamic profiles support all modes of severe weather
with any cells that can develop, including conditional potential
for significant hail.
..Cook/Gleason.. 04/28/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231
AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern
Plains, as well as across parts of the upper Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocked mid/upper flow regime across
Alaska through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, models indicate that
a deep closed low emanating from the Arctic latitudes will continue
to redevelop westward and southwestward across northern Canada,
toward the Canadian Rockies and Prairies. At the same time, it
appears that a mid-level low, within a southern branch of the split
westerlies, will migrate inland of the southern California/northern
Baja coast, into/through the Four Corners states. It may undergo
considerable deformation as it does, in advance of one or two
northern branch perturbations forecast to dig into and progress
through larger-scale troughing over the Pacific Northwest/northern
intermountain region and northern Rockies. Downstream of these
developments, models suggest that a weak northern branch short wave
trough will accelerate east-northeast of the upper Mississippi,
and weaken, within larger-scale mid/upper ridging forecast to build
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
In lower-levels, cold surface ridging is expected to be in the
process of nosing southward to the lee of the Rockies, probably
as far south as the southern High Plains by 12Z Monday. It may
continue southward during the day Monday, before gradually stalling
and weakening/eroding. This appears likely to occur beneath warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air initially encompassing much
of the Plains to the south of the Oklahoma/Kansas border, eastward
into/through the lower Mississippi Valley. At the same time, a
substantive northward return flow of Gulf moisture appears likely
to continue to develop around the western periphery of increasingly
prominent low-level ridging centered off the Atlantic coast, beneath
the capping, and above an evolving surface frontal zone across the
southern Plains through the Ohio Valley.
The bulk of the associated thunderstorm development during this
period probably will be focused above/to the cool side of the surface
frontal zone to the east of the Rockies, with additional thunderstorm
development possible beneath the mid-level cold pool associated
with the remnants of the closed low progressing across the Four
Corners states. Severe weather potential remains more unclear,
due to considerable differences among the models concerning the
evolving synoptic and sub-synoptic features, including the potential
cold air surge to the lee of the Rockies.
...Southern Plains... Considerable mid-level inhibition associated
with the elevated mixed-layer air, weak, or at least uncertain,
large-scale forcing for ascent, and uncertain southward progression
of the cold/stable near surface air are some of a number of
uncertainties complicating the severe weather forecast for this
period.
By late Monday afternoon, it appears that the cold front may advance
as far south as the Texas South Plains, with the primary potential
focus for boundary-layer based storm development probably near its
intersection with the dryline. It remains unclear whether this
boundary intersection will be located near/west or southwest of
the Midland area, or across the South Plains, farther to the east,
into parts of northwest Texas. However, guidance suggests that
the environment could become characterized by moderate CAPE with
sufficient shear for isolated supercells accompanied by some risk
for severe hail and wind.
Otherwise, there may be some increasing potential for storms capable
of producing severe hail above/to the cool side of the frontal zone
across the southern Plains Monday night, as southerly low-level
flow begins to strengthen ahead of the remnant southern branch low.
...Upper Ohio Valley... Moderately strong lower/mid tropospheric
wind fields (including 30-50+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer) in the
warm sector of an eastward migrating frontal wave may coincide with
a corridor of weak to modest boundary-layer destabilization by late
afternoon across parts of central and northern Ohio into western
Pennsylvania. This may provide a window of opportunity for strong
to severe thunderstorm development, which could include potential
for a supercell or two accompanied by a risk for severe hail,
locally strong surface gusts and possibly a tornado.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Kerr.. 04/28/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies/Plains
will shift eastward today, eventually reaching parts of the Upper
Midwest late in the period. Farther south, an upper low will reach
the coast of southern CA late tonight. A surface low will gradually
deepen across eastern CO this afternoon, with a lee trough/dryline
extending southward from the low across the southern High Plains.
...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains...
Modestly enhanced mid-level westerly winds will exist over much
of the Southwest and southern High Plains today. Diurnal mixing
of the boundary layer should bring these winds aloft to the
surface. A gradually strengthening surface pressure gradient will
also increase west-southwesterly surface winds to around 15-25 mph by
this afternoon behind the dryline across parts of northern/eastern AZ
into much of NM, southeastern CO, and west TX. RH values are forecast
to fall into the 10-20% range over this region, and elevated fire
weather conditions will occur where fuels are dry/receptive. Critical
meteorological conditions will probably occur across parts of eastern
NM, but recent wetting rainfall and spring greenup has likely reduced
fuel receptiveness across this region. Have therefore opted to not
include a critical delineation for any portion of eastern NM.
...Portions of the Southeast... A dry post-frontal airmass will
remain across much of the Southeast today. RH values should again
become lowered into the 15-25% range this afternoon across parts
of SC, GA, and FL. However, winds should remain generally light
across this region, so no elevated area has been introduced.
..Gleason.. 04/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis... An upper low over southern CA Monday morning
should become absorbed within large-scale upper troughing across
the western CONUS by Monday night. A mid-level jet associated with
this upper low will overspread parts of eastern AZ and western NM
by Monday afternoon. At the surface, a stalled front across the
southern High Plains should limit the eastward extent of elevated
conditions on Day 2/Monday.
...Portions of the Southwest... Enhanced mid-level flow becoming
diurnally mixed to the surface will likely foster an increase in
surface winds across parts of southeastern AZ into southern/central
NM by Sunday afternoon. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of
15-30 mph appear probable, with locally higher gusts possible across
higher terrain. RH values should fall into the 12-20% range across
this region where an elevated area has been included. Fuels do not
appear to be overly receptive to large fire starts at this time,
so a critical area was not introduced. Some potential for elevated
conditions may also exist farther east into parts of southeastern
NM, but uncertainty regarding the position of the stalled surface
front leads to lower confidence in this scenario occurring.
...Portions of the Southeast... A residual dry low-level airmass
will persist mainly over parts of coastal into central GA and
northern FL on Day 2/Monday. With winds forecast to remain mostly
below 10 mph, no elevated delineation has been made.
..Gleason.. 04/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The Least Successful Collector
Betsy Baker played a central role in the history of collecting. She
was employed as a servant in the house of John Warburton (1682-1759) who
had amassed a fine collection of 58 first edition plays, including most of
the works of Shakespeare.
One day Warburton returned home to find 55 of them charred beyond
legibility. Betsy had either burned them or used them as pie bottoms.
The remaining three folios are now in the British Museum.
The only comparable literary figure was the maid who in 1835 burned
the manuscript of the first volume of Thomas Carlyle's "The Hisory of the
French Revolution", thinking it was wastepaper.
-- Stephen Pile, "The Book of Heroic Failures"
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