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LU9DCE > ALERT 30.04.19 07:03z 259 Lines 15329 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23159_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 30 04
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Sent: 190430/0700Z 23159@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OK/TX
RED RIVER VICINITY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in a corridor across
parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward Illinois/Indiana
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will include a risk
for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
...Synopsis... Large-scale troughing will persist across the Western
U.S. today. A lead wave - currently over the Lower Colorado River
Valley - will open up while ejecting northeastward through the
central Rockies/Plains, eventually reaching Wisconsin/Illinois
by the end of the forecast period. A second trough will amplify
southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into Wyoming. A ridge
will extend from the Great Lakes southward across the Southeast.
At the surface, a couple of lows will organize in response to the
ejecting mid-level shortwave - one across Colorado and another across
the central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley. A nearly stationary front
will extend from the Texas South Plains north-northeastward into
eastern Kansas, then transition to a warm front across central
Illinois/Indiana. Plains portions of this front will oscillate
northwestward to southeastward today, with those oscillations tied
to trends in convection in that general vicinity. South and east
of the front, southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist and
buoyant low-level airmass characterized by near 70s F dewpoints.
...Texas northeastward to Illinois/Indiana... Early morning
convection should be ongoing at the start of the period along an
axis from the Texas South Plains northeastward to eastern Kansas
and southern Iowa - mostly along and north of the stationary front
that should be located from northwest Texas to near Kansas City.
Some of these storms may migrate east of the front and become
surface based, with an attendant risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts and a brief tornado given strong low-level shear profiles and
sufficient buoyancy. 30-40 kt southerly 850mb flow may encourage
northward retreat of this boundary during the morning, though the
eventual afternoon position of this front will ultimately depend on
the extent of elevated convection that can develop from northwest
Texas into northern Oklahoma.
Over the course of the day, bands of convection are expected to
organize along an axis from west-central Texas through central
Oklahoma and into southeastern Missouri very near and just ahead
of the eventual position of the front. Pre-frontal convection
may also evolve from western Arkansas northeastward to central
lllinois - particularly from mid-morning through the afternoon.
This convection may struggle against weak inhibition with southern
extent, although point forecast soundings indicate a mostly uncapped
airmass with strong instability and shear across central Illinois
and adjacent areas of eastern Missouri during the afternoon. Mixed
convective modes (linear and supercellular) are expected given the
shear/instability parameter space within the warm sector (1500
J/kg MLCAPE across MO/IL increasing to near 4000 J/kg southward
across west Texas). At this time, the greatest tornado risk appears
concentrated across north Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and into central
Illinois beneath the low-level jet axis where shear profiles will
be strongest. A northward-moving warm front across central IL/IN
may also provide impetus for updraft rotation/tornadogenesis
pending favorable convective interactions. Farther southwest
across west-central Texas, low-level wind fields are expected to
be a bit less favorable for tornadoes, though steeper lapse rates
and sufficient deep shear will support large (perhaps significant)
hail and damaging wind gusts.
A lingering uncertainty revolves around the northward retreat
of the surface boundary this afternoon across Oklahoma. A more
westward/northwestward position of this boundary is possible pending
evolution of early-morning convection, and this may result in a
higher afternoon and evening severe threat than currently depicted
in this outlook. This area will be monitored for possible upgrade
later today.
...Mid-Atlantic... A northwesterly flow regime is expected to
support convection originating from the Appalachians southeastward
into Virginia. With strong ridging located just west of the region,
it appears likely that storms should remain isolated. Shear profiles
are not particularly impressive, though veering winds with height
and steep low-level lapse rates may foster a wind/hail threat with
any forward-propagating convection through the early evening.
...Southeastern Colorado... Weak low-level cyclogenesis over
Colorado will foster a limited amount of low-level moisture
advection into the region beneath steep mid-level lapse rates aloft.
Though deep shear will favor organization, weak low-level shear
should limit any severe threat to hail/wind with forward-propagating
convection during the afternoon and early evening. This threat
should subside with the loss of daytime heating.
...Eastern Nevada, Utah, and far western Colorado... Lift associated
with a mid-level wave over Idaho and a southward-moving surface
front across the region should foster bands of convection during
the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates
(7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) will provide enough instability for downward
momentum transfer and isolated severe/damaging wind gusts. A few
instances of hail also cannot be ruled out.
..Cook/Gleason.. 04/30/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
possible Wednesday through Wednesday night in a corridor across the
southern Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Missouri Valley,
into southern portions of the Great Lakes region.
...Synopsis... A broad and deep mid-level closed low may begin to
elongate across western Canada during this period, while its center
continues a gradual retrogression across the Northwest Territories.
As it does, at least broad troughing likely will be maintained within
a northern branch of split mid-latitude westerlies, inland of the
northern U.S. Pacific coast through the Upper Midwest, as well as
within a southern branch, across the Southwestern international
border area through the southern Plains.
Perhaps the most significant embedded short wave impulse, within
the northern branch, is forecast to accelerate northeast of the
Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, toward the Upper Great Lakes region,
Wednesday through Wednesday night. Associated mid-level height falls
may remain well to the cool side of a stalled surface frontal zone,
on the leading edge of seasonably cool/cold air banked up across
much of the northern and central Plains into the adjacent Rockies.
In advance of this feature, models indicate that short wave ridging
will build across the lower Great Lakes region and southeastern
Ontario into Quebec and portions of the Northeast, in the wake of
an initial weakening perturbation emanating from the western U.S.
mid-level troughing. This will occur to the north of persistent
lower/mid tropospheric ridging, centered off the south Atlantic
Seaboard, which will remain a prominent influence across much of
the Southeast.
On the western through northern periphery of the ridging, a
southerly moist return flow will continue off the western Gulf of
Mexico, through the southern Plains and middle Mississippi Valley
into the southern Great Lakes region/Ohio Valley and northern
Mid Atlantic/southern New England. This corridor will generally
straddle the frontal zone, along which a weakening frontal wave
associated with the lead short wave impulse is expected to track,
across southern portions of the Great Lakes, Wednesday through
Wednesday night.
...Southern Plains into Ozark Plateau/lower Missouri Valley...
Although stronger lower/mid tropospheric wind fields are expected
to accompany the primary frontal wave migrating into the southern
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by early Wednesday, sheared 30-50
kt flow in the 850-500 mb layer may linger across much of the
central and southern Plains. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
particularly south of the Red River (associated with the warmer
elevated mixed-layer air), it appears that this will coincide
with considerable destabilization aided by daytime heating.
This probably will include mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess
of 2000 J/kg across a sizable area of the southern Plains.
The focus for convective development remains more unclear. Isolated
storms may initiate during the afternoon near the dryline across
parts of northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, southward
into the Texas South Plains. However, there remains considerable
signal in model output that forcing for ascent associated with a
southern branch perturbation may support the initiation of storms
within the warm sector. This could commence as far south as the
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, and as early as midday, before
spreading north-northeastward into and through the Red River Valley
and portions of the Ozark Plateau. The evolution of an organized
mesoscale convective system appears possible, accompanied by the
risk for severe hail and wind.
Barring complications from the influence of potential warm sector
convection, the frontal zone across parts of northeastern Oklahoma
and southeast Kansas into south central Missouri may provide another
focus for strong/severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon
and evening.
...Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes region... The frontal wave and
trailing cold front will provide a possible focus for thunderstorm
initiation, with additional storm development possible southward
toward the Ohio River, near the northwestern periphery of the
Southeastern subtropical ridging. However, relatively weak
mid-level lapse rates, cloud cover and areas of precipitation may
hamper boundary-layer destabilization and limit the overall severe
weather potential across this region, despite the strength of the
wind fields and vertical shear.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Kerr.. 04/30/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough embedded within
large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS will advance
northeastward across the southern/central Plains today. An area
of low pressure will develop at the surface across part of the
southern/central High Plains this afternoon as forcing for ascent
associated with the southern-stream shortwave trough overspreads
this region. A surface trough/dryline will extend southward from
this low across the southern High Plains.
...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level winds will gradually weaken across much of NM into
the southern High Plains today with the northeastward ejection
of the shortwave trough. Even so, surface winds should still
gradually increase this afternoon behind the dryline across parts of
southern/eastern NM into far west TX. Sustained west-southwesterly
winds of 15-25 mph are expected, and RH values will generally
fall into the 14-20% range for at least a few hours through peak
afternoon heating. Strong/gusty winds and lowered RH values will
likely extend northward/eastward of the elevated area across parts
of eastern NM into west TX. However, recent precipitation and less
receptive fuels with eastward extent preclude an even larger elevated
delineation at this time.
Locally critical meteorological conditions may also occur across
parts of southeastern NM and far west TX, but confidence in the
duration of these conditions and fuel receptiveness remains too
low to introduce a critical area. Furthermore, some short-term
guidance suggests the potential for wetting rainfall this morning
mainly across parts of southeastern NM. If this occurs, then the
elevated delineation may need to be trimmed over this region.
..Gleason.. 04/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing should remain over
a majority of the western CONUS on Day 2/Wednesday as an embedded
shortwave trough ejects northeastward from the central Rockies across
the northern/central Plains. At the surface, a low over CO should
consolidate and deepen slightly as it develops southeastward towards
the TX/OK Panhandles and northeastern NM by Wednesday evening. A
cold front attendant to this low will move southward across the
Great Basin into the Southwest, and a dryline is forecast to extend
southward across the southern High Plains.
...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow around 30-40 kt will persist over
a majority of NM and far west TX on Day 2/Wednesday. With time,
an area of strong/gusty westerly winds around 15-20 mph should
develop over parts of this region. RH values will likely fall into
the 10-20% range primarily across southern NM and far west TX, where
surface temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s
Wednesday afternoon. In conjunction with generally dry/receptive
fine fuels, these meteorological conditions support the inclusion
of an elevated area for southern NM and a small part of far west TX.
Beneath somewhat enhanced mid-level flow, strong/gusty surface
winds around 20-25 mph are also expected to develop across parts
of east-central/northeastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles Wednesday
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. However, latest guidance
suggests that fuels are less receptive across this region due to
recent precipitation and spring greenup. Have therefore not included
these areas in the elevated delineation.
..Gleason.. 04/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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