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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.12.22 09:46z 79 Lines 3026 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7547_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-DEC22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221210/0830Z 7547@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 10 00:58:01 UTC 2022
No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 10 00:58:01 UTC 2022.
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SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sat Dec 10 00:58:01 UTC 2022
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 10 00:58:01 UTC
2022.
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SPC Dec 10, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Fri Dec 09 2022
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
tonight.
...Pacific Coast vicinity...
The westerlies are undergoing substantive amplification across the
mid-latitude eastern Pacific. This includes digging large-scale
mid-level troughing, generally offshore of the U.S./British Columbia
coast through 12Z Saturday. The latest Rapid Refresh might be among
the more aggressive guidance indicating the leading edge of stronger
mid-level cooling, supportive of thermodynamic dynamic profiles
conducive to low-topped convection capable of producing lightning,
reaching southwestern Oregon/northwestern California coast toward
the end of the period. Based on latest satellite imagery and
lightning detection data, this seems possible, but with generally
low probabilities/sparse coverage.
...Southern Great Plains...
Large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow will generally be maintained
east of the Rockies, within one branch of westerlies across the
southern tier of the U.S. However, one smaller-scale short wave
perturbation is progressing northeastward and eastward through this
regime, across the southern Great Plains, as a much more prominent
short wave trough within another branch advances across/northeast of
the northern Rockies. Timed favorably with an increasing moist
southerly return flow, associated forcing for ascent is contributing
to sufficient destabilization to support a recent increase in
convection capable of producing lightning across southwestern into
central Oklahoma. This convection is rooted within warm advection
above a residual cool/stable near surface layer, and likely will
remain so as it spreads toward the Ozark Plateau overnight, with
negligible risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 12/10/2022
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