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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.12.22 09:07z 414 Lines 12922 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8397_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-DEC22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221213/0831Z 8397@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Tornado Watch 580
WW 580 TORNADO OK TX 130355Z - 131000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
Western north Texas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 955 PM
until 400 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A squall line over the eastern Texas Panhandle and Low
Rolling Plains should intensify as it spreads east through the early
morning, especially along the Red River Valley.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Clinton OK to 30
miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 578...WW 579...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Grams
Read more
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SPC Tornado Watch 579
WW 579 TORNADO KS OK 130320Z - 130800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Kansas
Northwest Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 920 PM
until 200 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A couple supercells over the eastern Texas Panhandle
should spread east along the Kansas-Oklahoma border before weakening
in the early morning.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Medicine
Lodge KS to 50 miles southwest of Alva OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 578...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Grams
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SPC Tornado Watch 578
WW 578 TORNADO OK TX 130225Z - 130700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
825 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Oklahoma Panhandle
Eastern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 825 PM
until 100 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to regenerate across the
northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma Panhandles, while gradually
increasing in intensity through late evening. Additional storms
should develop southward along a surging cold front.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to
70 miles south southeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Grams
Read more
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SPC Tornado Watch 580 Status Reports
WW 0580 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0580 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
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SPC Tornado Watch 579 Status Reports
WW 0579 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0579 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
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SPC Tornado Watch 578 Status Reports
WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0578 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
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SPC MD 2005
MD 2005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022
Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Western Oklahoma...Northwest
Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 130310Z - 130545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next few
hours from southern Kansas southward across western Oklahoma into
northwest Texas. Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado
threat will become possible with the more intense cells. Weather
watch issuance will likely be needed shortly.
DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has started to steadily increase
across the southern Plains as large-scale ascent has increased due
to the exit region of the mid-level jet. In addition, instability
has increased, partly due to moisture advection and partly due to
cooling aloft. MLCAPE is now between 500 and 1000 J/kg according to
the RAP. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Dodge City has 0-6
km near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 400
m2/s2. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and
also potential for for wind damage and a few tornadoes. Weather
watch issuance will likely be needed shortly as a squall-line
gradually organizes and moves eastward across western Oklahoma,
northwest Texas and southern Kansas.
..Broyles.. 12/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 37289870 37759902 37889953 37750005 37340023 36610016
35420026 34720074 34600142 34500169 34130202 33780212
33520205 33400181 33400114 33450094 33660014 34189935
34819898 35539877 37289870
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SPC MD 2004
MD 2004 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeastern
New Mexico
Concerning...Snow Squall
Valid 130201Z - 130430Z
SUMMARY...Snow squall conditions will be possible along portions of
the I-25 corridor and Raton Mesa over the next couple of hours.
Brief periods of low visibility and heavy/blowing snow may impact
travel.
DISCUSSION...As of 0155 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed a band of shallow convection near an eastward surging cold
front from south-central CO into northern NM. Over the last hour,
brief snow squall conditions have been noted at KALS and through
portions of the Alamosa Valley as the convective band moved through.
Ahead of the frontal band, area RAP soundings across southeastern CO
show steep low and mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) beneath cold
mid-level temperatures potentially supportive of weak buoyancy.
Surface convergence ahead of the front should remain strong as it
shifts eastward over the next couple of hours. Shallow convection
capable of brief heavy snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour and blowing
snow with wind gusts to 35 mph may continue eastward across Raton
Mesa and the I-25 corridor. While disruption to travel is possible,
uncertainty on the eastern extent of any snow squall conditions
remains high given limited buoyancy east of I-25 across the High
Plains.
..Lyons.. 12/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37890517 37860456 37750417 37510394 37200374 36940376
36610394 36420445 36230501 36140548 36320552 36460553
36980567 37340578 37740598 37890517
Read more
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SPC Dec 13, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across the high plains of
western Kansas into northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. Some of
these may become capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts,
along with potential for a couple of tornadoes.
...01Z Update...
No substantive changes have been made to the outlook for tonight.
Deep large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of the
western U.S. continues to progress eastward, with an intense
cyclonic mid/upper jet in its base nosing across areas near/north of
the Southwestern international border through the Texas Panhandle
vicinity. Strongest mid-level height falls currently along and to
the north of this jet, across eastern Colorado through western New
Mexico, are forecast to intensify through the night and become
focused near a developing cyclone across the high plains of western
Kansas into the Texas Panhandle by 12Z Tuesday.
In the presence of strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear, the
deepening lee surface trough has become the focus for modest
low-level warming and moistening. This has contributed to weak
boundary-layer instability, with the dryline a focus for
thunderstorm initiation just east of the Colorado/Kansas state
border vicinity into the northern Texas Panhandle.
Beneath intensifying mid-level upward vertical motion, dynamic
cooling will contribute to substantive further steepening of
low/mid-level lapse rates through 03-06Z, which may support a narrow
corridor of mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 500 J/kg, and
perhaps approaching 1000 J/kg (based on Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings). This should provide an environment increasing conducive
to supercells with the potential to produce marginally severe hail
and a risk for tornadoes, before forcing along an eastward advancing
cold front provides support for a developing squall line. As this
occurs, the risk for damaging surface gusts will become the more
prominent severe hazard for a period, before convection spreads
eastward into an environment less supportive of appreciable
boundary-layer destabilization.
South of the more prominent mid-level cooling, across southwestern
Oklahoma into northwest Texas, thunderstorms may form and intensify
near/just ahead of the eastward advancing cold front late tonight.
In the presence of more substantive low-level moisture return and
intensifying lower/mid tropospheric wind fields (including in excess
of 50 kt around 850 mb), low-level hodographs and thermodynamic
profiles may become supportive convection capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and a risk of tornadoes by daybreak. This may be
aided by increasing forcing for ascent downstream of a short wave
impulse now accelerating east-northeastward across Arizona.
..Kerr.. 12/13/2022
Read more
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