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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.12.22 08:38z 500 Lines 14686 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-DEC22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221214/0830Z 8462@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC Tornado Watch 585
WW 585 TORNADO LA TX CW 140335Z - 141000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
935 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central to southwest Louisiana
Far southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 935 PM
until 400 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A conditional threat for a few tornadoes will persist
through early morning with a slow-moving thunderstorm line and
discrete cells ahead of it.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles east of Alexandria LA to 35
miles north of Port Arthur TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 583...WW 584...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.
...Grams
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SPC Tornado Watch 584
WW 584 TORNADO AR LA MS 140025Z - 140800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
625 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
Western Mississippi
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 625 PM
until 200 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A conditionally favorable tornado environment will spread
east tonight across the Ark-La-Miss region, with a long-duration
threat for a few tornadoes anticipated.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Greenville MS to 15
miles south of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 583...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 21035.
...Grams
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SPC Tornado Watch 583
WW 583 TORNADO AR LA TX 132015Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Arkansas
Western and Northern Louisiana
East Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
1000 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over east Texas are expected to intensify
through the afternoon and evening as they track into parts of
Louisiana and southern Arkansas. Tornadoes, including a risk of
strong tornadoes, are expected with the most organized storms.
Damaging winds and hail are also possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Monticello
AR to 50 miles southeast of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 582...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Hart
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SPC Tornado Watch 585 Status Reports
WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0585 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
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SPC Tornado Watch 584 Status Reports
WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..12/14/22
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 584
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-041-043-079-140440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA
DREW LINCOLN
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-140440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
MSC001-011-015-021-037-051-053-055-063-083-125-133-149-151-163-
140440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
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SPC Tornado Watch 583 Status Reports
WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E UTS TO
35 NNW IER TO 25 E ELD TO 20 ESE PBF.
..BROYLES..12/14/22
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 583
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC009-011-013-021-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-111-115-
127-140440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE
CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER
SABINE UNION VERNON
WINN
TXC241-351-403-405-457-140440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER NEWTON SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE TYLER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
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SPC MD 2024
MD 2024 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 583... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN...AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022
Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas into southern...and
central Louisiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...
Valid 140248Z - 140415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to remain past the 04z
expiration of WW583. A replacement tornado watch will be coordinated
shortly.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar trends suggest
convection has strengthened across east TX ad southern/central LA in
response to increasing deep-layer ascent and the eastward shift of
the low-level jet axis. Additional convective development appears
likely owing to an uncapped, moist and highly sheared warm sector
evident from the 00z LCH sounding and area VAD/VWPs. CAMs suggest
the highest probability for new development/maturation of supercells
is on several warm advection confluence bands ahead of the slow
moving cold front from far southeast TX into central LA. With strong
shear and sufficient buoyancy in place through much of the night,
the risk for supercells and a few tornadoes will continue past the
04z expiration of WW583. A new watch will be coordinated to replace
it.
..Lyons/Grams.. 12/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 32589209 31789182 30739139 30549135 30379132 30199147
29999205 29959214 29939273 29889377 29949458 30239490
30599497 30949464 31569397 31809363 32189318 32339290
32589258 32709231 32589209
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SPC MD 2023
MD 2023 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 583...584... FOR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022
Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana...Western Mississippi...Far
Southeast Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...584...
Valid 140231Z - 140430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583, 584 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase across
far southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and western Mississippi.
Wind damage, tornadoes and hail will be possible with the more
intense storms.
DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar out of Jackson, Mississippi
and Fort Polk, Louisiana show two lines of strong convection. The
two lines are parallel to each other, both oriented from southwest
to northeast across northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas. The
western most line, which is located along and near the instability
axis, has been the most severe. But the line further east has been
gradually intensifying. These storms are located along and near the
axis of an 850 mb jet with winds at between 50 and 60 knots. The
strong low-level flow is contributing to 0-3 km storm relative
helicities of over 500 m2/s2, evident on RAP forecast soundings.
This shear environment will continue to be favorable for supercells
and tornadoes for the remainder of the evening. This threat, along
with a potential for wind damage, should move gradually eastward
toward the Mississippi River over the next few hours.
..Broyles.. 12/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33979136 33489187 32819216 32049234 31569214 31409168
31499101 32219043 33209005 33829018 33979136
Read more
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SPC Dec 14, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible tonight, mainly across
parts of northern and central Louisiana into southwestern
Mississippi. This continues to include the risk for a strong
tornado or two.
...01Z Update...
The mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific through the
western Atlantic have amplified to the point that a number of
mid-level cyclones have evolved. The deepest low is now centered
near the northern New England coast, with a strong short wave
impulse forecast to continue digging across the Northeast through
tonight. Another broad, but somewhat less prominent, cyclone is
beginning to stall upstream, over the middle Missouri Valley
vicinity, with a weaker low farther upstream, centered across the
eastern Pacific (roughly near 40N/140W). A couple of mid-level
highs may also begin to become more prominent late tonight into
Wednesday at somewhat higher latitudes, offshore of the British
Columbia coast and over the northern Quebec vicinity.
Beneath the interior U.S. low, a deep surface cyclone will gradually
occlude overnight, with a significant surface cold front surging
southward through the central and southern Great Plains. This is
preceded by a weaker surface front, which remains the primary focus
for thunderstorm development this evening (currently from
southeastern Missouri into east Texas).
The lead cold front is forecast to continue slowly advancing
eastward and southeastward into the lower Ohio/Mississippi Valleys
and northwestern Gulf coast. At the same time, a wedge of
potentially cold air will be maintained across much of the
Southeast, as far southwest as portions of southern Alabama into
eastern Mississippi through daybreak. In between, a narrowing plume
of moist confluent Gulf return flow appears likely to persist across
the Louisiana coast through the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity.
However, an initially strong low-level jet (30-50+ kt around 850 mb)
appears likely to gradually weaken.
Despite this gradual weakening, sizable clockwise curved low-level
hodographs are forecast to be maintained well into tonight ahead of
the southeastward advancing cold front. Particularly across parts
of central and northern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi,
where a seasonably moist boundary layer will remain characterized by
weak to moderate CAPE, this may continue to support discrete
supercell structures that could become capable of producing
tornadoes, including the risk for a strong tornado or two.
Although mid/upper flow will remain at least broadly difluent across
the lower Mississippi Valley region overnight, the lack of more
substantive mid/upper support appears likely to remain a limiting
factor with regard to potential for more widespread severe weather.
The primary upstream short wave, within the broader-scale cyclonic
flow surrounding the middle Mississippi Valley cyclone, is still
digging across Arizona and only forecast to reach the Texas South
Plains/Pecos Valley vicinity after turning eastward later tonight.
..Kerr.. 12/14/2022
Read more
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