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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.12.22 22:15z 446 Lines 12922 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8590_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-DEC22
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 221215/2030Z 8590@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP) PHP
Copyright 2022 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Tornado Watch 591
WW 591 TORNADO FL CW 151300Z - 152100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
800 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and north-central Florida
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 800 AM until
400 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two should
increase through the remainder of the morning and linger through at
least midafternoon, with a band of thunderstorms moving eastward
from the Gulf across the watch area. Isolated supercells ahead of
the main convective band also may pose a tornado hazard, especially
over western areas.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
either side of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Saint
Petersburg FL to 30 miles north northeast of Melbourne FL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Edwards
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SPC Tornado Watch 591 Status Reports
WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W SRQ TO
20 SW DAB TO 40 E DAB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
..DEAN..12/15/22
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 591
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-049-055-057-081-095-097-105-115-117-127-151940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
HARDEE HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
MANATEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE
VOLUSIA
AMZ550-552-151940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
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SPC MD 2048
MD 2048 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 591... FOR CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Areas affected...Central FL Peninsula
Concerning...Tornado Watch 591...
Valid 151812Z - 151945Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 591 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado
or two will continue this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection has organized into a loosely organized QLCS
early this afternoon from near Tampa Bay northeastward across the
central FL Peninsula. A few wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range have
been noted over the last 1-2 hours, as well as occasional weak
low-level rotation embedded within the line, and a possible brief
tornado earlier in Pinellas County.
Wind profiles (as noted in KTBW and KMLB VWPs and the 16Z Cape
Canaveral sounding) remain favorable for organized storms, though
some veering flow near the surface has weakened low-level shear/SRH
to some extent. Low/midlevel lapse remain rather weak across the
central FL Peninsula, which may continue to limit the severe threat
somewhat, though modest heating/destabilization downstream of the
line will help maintain a risk for strong/damaging gusts and a brief
tornado or two through mid afternoon, especially across the
west-central FL Peninsula.
While the primary cold front is lagging the ongoing convection,
substantial redevelopment behind the QLCS appears unlikely, with the
stronger large-scale ascent lifting away from the region as the main
deep-layer cyclone occludes over the Upper Midwest.
..Dean.. 12/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 28258042 27728121 27278197 26978264 27268279 27588269
28828147 28928092 28748053 28258042
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SPC MD 2047
MD 2047 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Areas affected...Northwest Minnesota...eastern North Dakota...and
far northeast South Dakota.
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 151646Z - 152045Z
SUMMARY...Moderate snow will advance westward through mid-afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Moderate to locally heavy snow is currently being
observed near the North Dakota/Minnesota border and vicinity. This
area of enhanced snowfall is associated with a westward moving
upper-level trough which has now wrapped around the parent
upper-level low. Moderate to locally heavy snow will continue to
advance westward through mid-afternoon before starting to weaken as
the shortwave trough slows and eventually stalls as it gets absorbed
by the upper low.
In addition to the moderate to heavy snow, some visibility
reductions can be expected amid surface winds of 25 to 30 mph and
gusts to 40 mph within the tight pressure gradient on the west side
of the surface low. Despite weakening snowfall rates this
afternoon/evening, blowing snow and associated visibility
restrictions are expected to persist through the overnight period as
the surface low moves slowly northeast and the pressure gradient
remains across the region.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 48779556 48459501 47849478 46919509 46169523 45129575
44629655 44759711 44959748 45379798 46529868 47749886
48519845 48789776 48779556
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SPC MD 2046
MD 2046 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Pennsylvania...southern New
York...and far northwest New Jersey
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 151624Z - 152030Z
SUMMARY...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will transition to mostly
snow this afternoon across portions of the central Appalachians.
DISCUSSION...Freezing rain has been observed for much of the morning
across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. In this region, a large
warm conveyor belt, associated with a large upper low across the
Midwest has overspread cold air damming east of the Appalachians.
However, temperatures aloft are not that warm across the region with
RAP forecast soundings showing a warm nose around 1 to 2 C across
eastern Pennsylvania. Therefore, the entire profile should drop
below freezing in the next several hours as temperatures cool aloft
and a surface low currently over South Carolina deepens and moves up
the coast.
Moderate, to locally heavy snow is expected once this occurs with
snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 41917879 42417816 42707706 42537604 41617470 41127434
40647525 40067605 40037660 40147708 40437744 41027814
41917879
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SPC Dec 15, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm winds will be
possible today over parts of the Florida Peninsula.
...FL...
A large upper low is in place today over much of the CONUS, with the
primary surface cold front sagging southward into the FL peninsula
and southeast states. A line of intense thunderstorms along/ahead
of the front will move into central FL this afternoon, where rich
low level moisture and considerable low-level vertical shear is
present. Several of these storms have shown supercell/bowing
structures offshore, and also as they have moved inland this
morning. This scenario will likely continue through at least early
afternoon, before a gradual weakening of wind fields diminishes the
severe threat. Please refer to MCD #2045 for further short-term
details.
...GA/SC/NC...
The main surface cold front extends from the western Carolinas into
east GA. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will maintain
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, along with marginal CAPE. While the
thermodynamic environment appears weak, very strong low and
mid-level winds/shear suggest a risk of brief organization of any
deep convection that can be maintained. Locally gusty winds or a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out until the front moves offshore
late this afternoon or early evening.
..Hart/Bentley.. 12/15/2022
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SPC Dec 15, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Generally cool and stable conditions will exist Friday over much of
the CONUS as an upper low remains over the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes. Broad mid-level cyclonic flow will exist from the Rockies to
the East Coast, with strong westerlies aloft over the Southeast. At
the surface, high pressure will be present over much of the West,
with a ridge stretching east across the southern Plains and
Southeast. The only area of appreciable thunderstorm potential will
be over parts of south Florida and the Keys near the tail end of a
stalling front. Here, modest instability along with weak surface
convergence may foster isolated thunderstorms. Severe convection
appears unlikely.
..Gleason.. 12/15/2022
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 12/15/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022/
...Synopsis...
In the wake of the stalled upper-level cyclone over the Midwest, a
cold front is forecast to move south over much of the western US and
Plains Thursday. Surface high pressure behind the front will keep
winds light and temperatures much colder through the remainder of
the forecast period. Fuels have also moderated, suggesting low
potential for large fire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 12/15/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022/
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure is forecast to intensify Friday as an arctic
front continues east and south toward the MS Valley. Overnight
temperatures below freezing and calm winds are expected across much
of the western US and Plains States, with the exception of the West
Coast. Offshore flow and occasional dry surface conditions will be
possible into the weekend. However, with limited potential for
dry/windy conditions to overlap with receptive fuels, fire-weather
concerns are low through the forecast period.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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