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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.05.19 07:04z 265 Lines 14152 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23280_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 02 05
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190502/0700Z 23280@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 119 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 020240Z - 021000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Wed
May 1 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 940 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of well-organized convection will continue to
progress east-southeastward across the ArkLaTex region through
the late evening and overnight hours. Damaging winds is the most
probable impact, although isolated large hail is possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast
of De Queen AR to 15 miles south of Longview TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 118...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 27030.
...Guyer
WW 0119 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 119
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S TYR TO
20 NNE GGG TO 25 NE SHV.
..SMITH..05/02/19
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 119
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC015-017-119-020700-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER
TXC183-203-315-423-020700-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREGG HARRISON MARION SMITH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0118 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 118
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SEP TO
25 SSE DAL TO 35 NNE CRS.
..SMITH..05/02/19
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 118
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-099-139-143-193-217-221-251-309-425-020600-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE CORYELL ELLIS ERATH
HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON
MCLENNAN SOMERVELL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102
AM CDT Thu May 02 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS WELL AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
VICINITY...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging
gusts and hail, and possibly a couple of tornadoes, are possible
across portions of western and central Texas today into this
evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley vicinity this
afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper trough will pivot eastward from the Rockies into
the Plains by Friday morning. Several features of varying intensity
will migrate through larger-scale southwesterly flow from southwest
TX to the Mid-Atlantic. The first, weak impulse will move across
the lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic, weakening a ridge over the
region enough to promote isolated strong storms from the Chesapeake
to southern NJ. The second, more intense shortwave impulse will
lift northeast from the ArkLaTex to the lower Ohio Valley. In
lower levels, this feature is forecast to be associated with an
MCV emanating from convection moving across AR and northeast TX
early this morning. Finally, a more substantial shortwave trough
will move across northern Mexico and Texas by Friday morning.
At the surface, the pattern becomes complicated with many outflow
boundaries and ongoing convection stretching from central TX into
the middle and lower MS Valley in addition to a southward-advancing
cold front from western TX into northern IL. Where these boundaries
ultimately end up will determine where convective initiation occurs
later today across western/central Texas. Additionally, cloud debris
from ongoing MCS across the southern Plains/Ozarks vicinity spreading
eastward through the morning hours could influence severe potential
across the lower Ohio Valley.
...West Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity...
As of 0530z, a largely decaying bowing line segment stretches from
western AR southwestward across north TX. Some of this convection
will likely be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks and north-central
TX at 12z. The outflow generated by this MCS will eventually be
a focus for convection this afternoon from central TX into parts
of AR/LA. Additionally, a cold front surging southward across the
TX Panhandle may intersect western portions of the outflow and be
another area for thunderstorm initiation across western TX later
this afternoon and evening as the northern Mexico shortwave ejects
eastward. Ahead of the myriad of boundaries, a very moist boundary
layer with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will be in place.
Even with modest heating, strong destabilization with SBCAPE greater
than 3000 J/kg forecast from western into central TX and up to 2000
J/kg further east toward the Sabine River. Storms are expected to
develop along the dryline across far west TX and the west-to-east
oriented effective cold front/outflow boundary across central TX by
peak heating as stronger deep layer forcing overspreads the area
ahead of the upper trough. Semi-discrete cells will be possible
initially, with all severe hazards possible given favorable bulk
shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and maximized SRH in the vicinity
of the surface boundaries. As with previous days, convection may
not remain discrete for long and could grow upscale into one or
more bowing segments heading into late afternoon/evening.
...Ohio Valley Vicinity...
Cloud cover and ongoing convection at the beginning of the period
are a few flies in the ointment for severe potential this afternoon
across the region. However, a very moist airmass will be in place,
and where pockets of greater heating occur, SBCAPE up to around 2000
J/kg will be possible. Effective shear will be weaker across this
area, especially in the low levels, compared to further southwest.
However, forecast sounding indicated a well-mixed boundary layer
where stronger heating occurs, and isolated damaging gusts are
possible. Additionally, modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 deg
C/km and adequate shear profiles for weakly rotating updrafts
could result in isolated severe hail as well. The main threat will
be during the afternoon, but could persist into the evening as a
midlevel impulse and remnant MCV track across the area. Depending
on timing of this feature, the severe threat could become more
organized, but this remains uncertain.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Sporadic strong wind gusts are possible this afternoon as strong
heating of a moist boundary layer leads to 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE
across the region. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v
forecast soundings and modest midlevel lapse rates in the presence
of about 30 kt effective shear should be sufficient for a few strong
storms during peak heating.
..Leitman/Dean.. 05/02/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232
AM CDT Thu May 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY... There appears at least some risk for the development
of severe storms Friday across parts of southern and eastern Texas,
as well as across the central Appalachians into northern Mid Atlantic
Coast region.
...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocked regime within the westerlies
across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, split branches of stronger
flow are becoming a bit more zonal, and broadly confluent, inland of
the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard. There will likely
be a number of short waves progressing through the two streams, but
they likely will remain largely out of phase during this period.
This may include one significant impulse migrating across eastern
Ontario into Quebec, within the northern branch, and another across
the lower Rio Grande Valley through the lower/middle Mississippi
Valley, within the southern branch.
In lower levels, a surface frontal zone, initially extending from
the lower Great Lakes into the central Plains, is forecast to advance
southeastward through southern New England, the northern Mid Atlantic
and the Ohio Valley. Weak wave development also appears possible
along the frontal zone across northeast Texas into portions of the
Ozark Plateau by 12Z Saturday.
...Texas into lower Mississippi Valley... The southern branch
troughing may be comprised of several smaller-scale perturbations,
and in the process of developing east-northeast of the lower Rio
Grande Valley with scattered associated areas of thunderstorm
activity at 12Z Friday. Thereafter, it appears that breaks in
cloud cover may allow for sufficient heating of a seasonably moist
boundary layer to contribute to moderately large mixed-layer CAPE.
In the presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition, and
modest deep layer shear, thunderstorms may re-intensify with new
development and upscale growth also likely by Friday afternoon,
probably accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail.
...Central Appalachians into northern Mid Atlantic... Weak mid-level
height falls, near or just south of the southern periphery of
the lead northern stream perturbation, may provide the focus
for thunderstorm initiation along the southward advancing front
approaching the Allegheny Mountains by Friday afternoon. In the
presence of sheared 30-50 kt southwesterly 850-500 mb flow, and weak
to moderate mixed-layer CAPE, some of these could become strong to
severe with potential to produce damaging wind gusts.
Activity may spread east of the Allegheny Mountains, toward the
northern Mid Atlantic coast, perhaps preceded by additional storm
development along an initial stalled surface front, and near
a weak surface low developing within lee surface troughing to
the southwest, across parts of northern Virginia. At least some
model output suggests that mixed-layer CAPE may become maximized
(in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg) across this region, where enhanced
vertical shear could contribute to increasingly organized convection,
and perhaps an isolated supercell or two by Friday evening.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Kerr.. 05/02/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Wed May 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over much of the
central/eastern CONUS is expected to move eastward today, as a weak
ridge begins to build near the Pacific Coast. A surface ridge is
forecast to build into much of the Plains, with a nebulous surface
pattern across much of the Southwest. While much of the Southwest
will be warm and dry, winds are generally expected to be too weak
for any appreciable fire-weather threat.
..Dean.. 05/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Wed May 01 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Much of the CONUS will be covered by broad cyclonic
upper flow on Friday, with generally weak surface features as the
strongest shortwave troughs remain confined to the far northern
tier of states. Typical warm/dry conditions are expected across the
Southwest, but the fire-weather threat should be limited by weak
surface winds. Elsewhere, no fire weather concerns are anticipated.
..Dean.. 05/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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...Saure really turns out to be an adept at the difficult art of papryomancy,
the ability to prophesy through contemplating the way people roll reefers -
the shape, the licking pattern, the wrinkles and folds or absence thereof in
the paper. "You will soon be in love," sez Saure, "see, this line here."
"It's long, isn't it? Does that mean --" "Length is usually intensity.
Not time."
-- Thomas Pynchon, _Gravity's Rainbow_
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